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The Fed

1 bull · 5 dove · 2 hold · 3 neutral · exact words, dated and sourced

What the people who move markets are saying about this, in their own words. These are views on the record, not scored bets: when a call here grows a number and a deadline, it moves to the scoreboard. Newest first.

Bull 2026-07-03
On Warsh cutting: “He's a great guy and a great pro, and I know where he'd like to be, but he has to do what he has to do.” Wants lower rates (“they wanna bring it down by raising interest rates, and it shouldn't be that way”)
Donald Trump · President of the United States · CNBC
Neutral 2026-07-02
Cuts before hikes, “although I don't think you're going to get either of those anytime soon”
Jan Hatzius · Goldman Sachs (Chief Economist) · CNBC
Dove 2026-07-02
On rate cuts: “I don't think they're off the table for the back part of the year”
Rick Rieder · BlackRock (CIO Global Fixed Income) · Bloomberg TV
Neutral 2026-07-01
On hike chatter: “Volatility is not up, it's down. Yields aren't up, they're down… I hear this as if people don't understand. I think they actually do.” Declines all forward guidance incl. balance-sheet level (“we have a task force for that too”, $6.7T today)
Kevin Warsh · Federal Reserve (Chair) · ECB Forum panel
Neutral 2026-06-30
“I would be absolutely shocked if we get a rate hike in July. And I would be very surprised if we get any rate hikes this year. I also would be surprised if we get a rate cut”
Mohamed El-Erian · Allianz / Queens' College · Fox Business
Dove 2026-06-30
“We do have a more dovish outlook on the Fed, where we think the Fed is going to be cutting rates this year, not because of weakness in the economy, but more because of disinflationary trends”
Meghan Shue · Wilmington Trust · CNBC
Hold 2026-06-19
No interest-rate activity at all in 2026 (no cut, no hike)
Kevin Mahn · Hennion & Walsh · Fox Mornings with Maria
Dove 2026-06-18
Rates are a 'sideshow'; a hawkish rate move is unlikely
Mike Wilson · Morgan Stanley · Bloomberg
Hold 2026-06-18
“We thought he was a dove who favored lowering the federal funds rate. Instead, he hammered home a strict orthodox message on inflation with a strong commitment to price stability” (his written note, read on air); “it may be a do nothing Fed for a while”
Ed Yardeni · Yardeni Research · Bloomberg TV
Dove 2026-06-17
Back to a zero-rate environment; long 30-year bonds
Jeff Park · Bitwise · When Shift Happens (Bitwise)
Dove 2026-06-05
Fed cuts faster than the market expects (only ~1 cut priced)
Cathie Wood · ARK Invest · ARK In The Know

On the scoreboard

Voices in this debate who also have scored calls on the ledger.

Cathie Wood · 3 of 5 correct

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Every line on this site is backed by a dated, sourced entry in our records. We write down what public figures predict, then check when reality answers. How we score · Corrections
Pundit Rumble · punditrumble.com · built 2026-07-09 from the records · never hand-edited · not investment advice.