No calls filed yet. Quotes in curly quotation marks are verbatim; everything
else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.
Since they said it
9 directional calls with a price to read (7 bullish, 2 bearish). 1 week later, with the call in 2 of 9; 1 month later, with the call in 5 of 9. Prices as of 2026-09-11. Three fixed windows, the same for every call, always shown together: one week, one month, three months after the first close that followed the tape. What the market did, not a score: a call can have a different horizon, and a view with no number or deadline is never graded here.
Nasdaq from 2026-06-15 to 2026-09-10 · ▲ bullish · ▼ bearish · dot = the close that day
Date
Market
Call
What was said
1 week
1 month
3 months
2026-07-18
from 25,508
Nasdaq
Bullish (Leaning)
“I think somewhere between this 30 and 60 percent retracement, they're going to hang in there and they'll start to move higher again. But I think the fireworks show is over.”
“I think between now and the end of the year at these levels, regardless of whether Micron sells off another 20%, I don't see how the memory trade, the earnings don't grow, and how the S&P doesn't go higher.”
“Bitcoin is the only thing that has a moat, which is what's an asset that I don't have to worry about it being disrupted by AI, but I still have to invest.”
“My belief is that over the course of the next year, we are near the bottom end of the range of Bitcoin. And see how I said that near? Could we go to 50? Yeah. Could we go to 45? Yeah. Do I think we'll be over a hundred a year from now? Yeah.”
Frames the selloff as an 'A.I. mid-cycle slowdown' second-derivative repricing plus a genuine deleveraging (Korean margin closures, quant/multi-strat losses, momentum-factor unwind): 'We've done enough based on what I think is there. And I think we'll probably start to form some sort of a bottom here.' @4:39. Micron cited as 100 to 1200 and back to 800 that morning.
“I think somewhere between this 30 and 60 percent retracement, they're going to hang in there and they'll start to move higher again. But I think the fireworks show is over.”
'So the semiconductors are going to be fine, but memory is the place that I'm going to be focused on.' @6:33. Thesis: memory capacity wasn't built for seven years while Micron's stock went nowhere, so supply can't meet exponential token demand. Disclosure: 'I even started to buy a little bit of Micron this week and some of the semis. Micron, I have a position again.' @34:45: re-entering at prices above where he sold.
“I think memory is the most important part of the AI trade.”
Also: 'if you want to just go buy the S&P, I think you're going to get great returns in the S&P for at least the next couple of years as well.' @42:03. Cites 5-6% deficits ('the printing press is still happening'), a government that 'can't lose to China' on AI, hyperscalers' low debt-to-equity and ~$2T of contracted RPOs as reasons capex and earnings keep growing.
“I think between now and the end of the year at these levels, regardless of whether Micron sells off another 20%, I don't see how the memory trade, the earnings don't grow, and how the S&P doesn't go higher.”
'I actually believe that multiple compression story will become a much bigger story.' @45:03. Logic: if AGI arrives within ~3 years, commoditized intelligence lets AI-native competitors attack all public companies, so terminal values compress even as earnings grow: his answer to the 'we need a dot-com-style blowoff first' bulls.
“I think the market is going to go through multiple compression. So I think earnings are going to be great. I think the S&P is going to grow less than earnings like we've seen so far this year.”
Marvels that oil experts were 'this wrong' about a Strait of Hormuz disruption: crude traded DOWN through the initial shutdown and only rebounded on renewed bombing. 'I don't fall for the trap again, especially when inflation swaps this week actually went down.' @23:34-23:36; two-year inflation swaps at the week's lows.
“the second you stop bombing, we have the next ceasefire. What's going to happen to crude? I can't imagine it doesn't go straight back down.”
Every inflation gauge but PCE core (median, trimmed mean, CPI core, sticky, 'true inflation') has come down. On the Warsh Fed: 'we've now taken the July rate hike to a 10% chance' @25:37 and 'if he was going to do it, I think July would be the time. I don't see him doing it in September, October.' @25:53: against market pricing of one hike before year-end. Calls falling hike odds 'a very big positive for the debasement trade, a very big positive for crypto.'
“I'm leaning towards the fact that the inflation side is a non-story for the rest of the year.”
ETH 'up close to 20% month to date' as of yesterday's close @33:03: would be its best month since August last year, and the biggest outperformance vs Bitcoin since then. Thesis: AI agents + tokenization + stablecoin/RWA volumes make ETH 'the revenue side of crypto.' 'I'm trading it actively. I'm trying to make sure that if the bottom is made here, it's there.' @34:40. Teaser duplicate of this line at 0:10-0:27; in-context occurrence filed.
“Once we get above the 200 day moving average, I believe we're at the start of something new”
'I think every single asset is going to run through a problem where AI is going to run into its moat.' @16:17. Built on Demis Hassabis's ~2030 AGI timeline ('the world is going to change over the next three years'). His crypto allocation: 'it's Bitcoin, Ethereum, and MicroStrategy.' @35:23; notes Bitcoin vol at 30 vs AI-factor vol near 100, so 'you can have three times as much Bitcoin on a vol adjusted basis as you can AI.'
“Bitcoin is the only thing that has a moat, which is what's an asset that I don't have to worry about it being disrupted by AI, but I still have to invest.”
Pushing back on people who 'extrapolate anthropics ARR' from three straight ~10x years to 'a trillion dollar' figure @13:47; sees ~$200B ARR next year as plausible but the 10x era ending as competition and Jevons-paradox commoditization arrive: 'the model providers are going to have an uphill battle from here compared to the last two years.' @22:32.
“I don't think they're going to get to those numbers. Do I think they could get to 200 next year? Yeah, well, that's a doubling. That's not 10 times.”
Asked what he's actively avoiding. Earlier: 'We've talked about how you can't view Adobe and Salesforce past the next three years.' @15:49. Host underlines it as a held-steady structural view, 'more of a structural change than... a sell off that is somewhat temporary.' Whisper renders 'seat-based' as 'seed-based': kept verbatim.
“I still have no interest in SaaS seed-based software, so a lot of people are trying to pick bottoms in that.”
BTC recently broke below $60,000; his first RSI divergence since the cycle peak, he says
“My belief is that over the course of the next year, we are near the bottom end of the range of Bitcoin. And see how I said that near? Could we go to 50? Yeah. Could we go to 45? Yeah. Do I think we'll be over a hundred a year from now? Yeah.”
“So I think we're stuck between 65 and 80. And unless we get above 80 and the Iran situation is worsening where there's no ships going through Hormuz, I just don't think it matters for the markets.”