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Kyle Rodda
Capital.com (senior market analyst); name garbled by whisper, verify
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Where they stand
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He cites loose fiscal policy, the AI investment boom straining physical resources, and the oil spike from the Iran war: 'the story for the Fed will be that it will have to hike interest rates sooner rather than later, and that won't be obviously a positive thing for equities' @53:14. Anchor notes futures price about a 20% chance of a hike at next week's meeting @51:01. On tape he expects those tweaks to be further modest hikes.
“that underlying inflation pressures are going to persist and that the Fed will eventually have to tweak rates somewhere down the line”
On the coming tech earnings run led by Alphabet. He sees a repeat of last quarter, when 'extraordinary profits from the hyperscalers' broke the market out of geopolitical and rate worries, and calls the recent semi weakness 'a little bit of consolidation and a little bit of churn' @54:34; adds 'we'll just sort of have to wait and see' @54:46.
“My bias is that those results will be solid and set these sort of trends higher once again.”
He says markets 'have taken their eyes off the ball' on trade @57:30 while foreign policy dominates, and that renewed tariffs could mean 'another sort of miniature supply shock' @58:27 and 'maybe a bit of a gray swan for the markets' @58:36.
“I think, in fact, the markets aren't discounting this fully that, you know, perhaps the Trump administration will try and, you know, more or less, you know, fight a war on two fronts, a trade war and a hot war.”
On the national team returning to support Chinese stocks after the Star 50 fell 17% last week, plus the Kimi K3 'deep seek moment'. He calls state support 'a fairly positive signal, especially considering, you know, valuations in China. Again, relative to U.S. peers have been so depressed' @60:20.
“We could see this sort of valuation gap that has been pretty persistent for a little while in U.S. markets compared to certainly Chinese markets and those sensitive to China close up a little bit.”
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