0 correct, 3 missed. Quotes in curly quotation marks are verbatim; everything
else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.
Since they said it
8 directional calls with a price to read (7 bullish, 1 bearish). 1 week later, with the call in 3 of 8; 1 month later, with the call in 1 of 8; 3 months later, with the call in 1 of 8. Prices as of 2026-09-11. Three fixed windows, the same for every call, always shown together: one week, one month, three months after the first close that followed the tape. What the market did, not a score: a call can have a different horizon, and a view with no number or deadline is never graded here.
Bitcoin from 2025-12-06 to 2026-09-11 · ▲ bullish · ▼ bearish · dot = the close that day
Date
Market
Call
What was said
1 week
1 month
3 months
2026-01-09
from 90,552
Bitcoin
Bullish (Hedged)
So I don't think it's up only yet, but I do think that by sort of, once we get clarity over that shutdown, I think we also get the clarity act through as well.
maybe they're going to be able to secure cheaper and more abundant energy via getting the resolution in Iran, which I think has been on the table for a long time with the Israelis and the Saudis kind of driving in the background.
So the metals trade, I don't think it's done yet because of this. We're not there yet. So it feels like the metals trade can go till the end of the year, which means financial conditions, the whole thing just goes forward.
Tesla, because nobody believed it was a network company. And sooner or later, everyone's realizing that this is networked AI across networked cars with networked robots, networked logistic chains.
“I think Bitcoin, somewhere north of $200,000, and ETH closer to $15,000, but I think we finish the cycle with Bitcoin close to $400,000 and ETH closer to $40,000”
What happened: BTC closed Dec 31, 2021 at $46,328.94 (~77% below $200K)
Raoul Pal tells host Mando crypto is not 'up only' yet (tariff on/off noise, possible end-of-month shutdown) but turns positive once the shutdown resolves and the Clarity Act passes around end-January 2026.
So I don't think it's up only yet, but I do think that by sort of, once we get clarity over that shutdown, I think we also get the clarity act through as well.
Raoul Pal tells Mando that geopolitical moves (Venezuela, Iran, Greenland) are market-negative as noise but net big positives for the structural backdrop of risk assets if they resolve.
But if these things slowly resolve, these are net big positives to the general kind of structural backdrop.
Raoul Pal tells Mando the US may secure cheaper, more abundant energy via an Iran resolution he thinks has long been on the table, plus Venezuela, framed as the US securing inputs for the AI race.
maybe they're going to be able to secure cheaper and more abundant energy via getting the resolution in Iran, which I think has been on the table for a long time with the Israelis and the Saudis kind of driving in the background.
Raoul Pal tells Mando he uses 2030 as the date for an 'economic singularity' when AI is fully AGI and autonomous, questioning what role humans and companies then have in markets.
I've been using this kind of 2030 date for the economic singularity where it just kind of like, if AI becomes fully AGI at that point and it can do things autonomously, then what role do we have in markets?
Raoul Pal tells Mando that human-centred assets like sports teams keep rising in value because AI cannot replace the human element (cites chess growing despite computers winning).
if you look at things like sports teams, they just keep going up and to the right in value. The reason being is they're human centered things.
Raoul Pal tells Mando that AI's hunger for data plus crypto rails will create data marketplaces, so within five years owning one's data becomes a source of income (the web3 'own' ethos).
in the next five years, it'll become very apparent that owning our data was one of the things that gave us income.
Raoul Pal tells Mando Barry Silbert will be proved right on Bittensor (TAO): the weekly chart is a 'killer' bull flag with a big move to come, though he owns none.
And I just think bit tensor, if I look at the weekly chart, it's like it's a killer chart. I don't own any.
Raoul Pal tells Mando the AI-agent narrative in crypto will favour chains that process at agent speed, which feels like a Solana/Sui world more than an ETH world, though layer-2s might manage.
I think a lot of them is gonna be just who is able to process at the speed that agents require.
Raoul Pal tells Mando that with liquidity still rising, debt to refinance and fiscal stimulus coming, crypto and technology look good and 2026 is a good year.
So we read a lot about that, that just for crypto looks good, technology continues to look good because liquidity still coming into the system.
Raoul Pal tells Mando the traditional-world 2026 theme is the cyclical commodity trade with the Aussie and Canadian dollars rising, and inflation crawling higher only over time, not yet.
It's where the Aussie dollar goes up and the Canadian dollar goes up and that typical cyclical trade that ends up with over time inflation crawling higher again, which not yet, but over time.
Raoul Pal tells Mando that gold tracks current financial conditions and leads GMI's total-liquidity measure by about 12 months, while Bitcoin follows liquidity.
So this is our total liquidity in gold. So gold leads it by about 12 months. It basically lives in financial conditions world.
Raoul Pal tells Mando the metals (gold) trade is not done and can keep running until the end of 2026 because financial conditions must keep easing to fund interest payments.
So the metals trade, I don't think it's done yet because of this. We're not there yet. So it feels like the metals trade can go till the end of the year, which means financial conditions, the whole thing just goes forward.
Raoul Pal tells Mando the signal to turn cautious on Bitcoin is the ISM nearing 60 plus a peak in the rate of change of financial conditions, and he does not think that point has been reached.
And if it's near 60, you want to be a little more cautious 'cause Bitcoin sniffs at that peak in the ISM very quickly along with the peak in financial conditions rate of change. But I don't think it's there yet.
Raoul Pal tells Mando that per GMI's model Bitcoin should be around $140-160K had the October liquidation not happened, the discount is temporary, and closing that gap is the feature of 2026.
also in the global macro investor, we looked at the undervaluation of Bitcoin versus where it should be. It should be somewhere around 140 to 160,000 had that not have happened.
Raoul Pal tells Mando it makes no sense that crypto dies given its network effects, banks building on-chain, the Clarity Act and rising liquidity, so the underperformance is temporary.
is it likely the blockchain technology which has this most powerful network effects of any investment asset class in history suddenly just dies to death. While every single bank is about to build on it, the government's about to pass the clarity act.
Raoul Pal tells Mando he does not trade in and out of crypto but sits with it as 'the gift that keeps on giving over time' rather than chasing gold or silver.
I just sit with it and say, it'll be the gift that keeps on giving over time.
Raoul Pal tells Mando that over the full cycle crypto will have outperformed AI stocks because of its convexity and reflexivity, so he stays patient in crypto rather than picking chip names.
If we go through this cycle in the end, what will have done best? It'll have been crypto just by the very nature of its convexity and its reflexivity.
Raoul Pal argues that the SLR change plus zero risk-weighting on Treasuries turns US banks into the Treasury's captive buyer, so the Fed no longer controls liquidity (fiscal dominance).
And what he's saying is we want to jam the banks with unlimited amounts of treasury bond issuance. So now we've got a buyer. So they've completely neutered the Fed.
Raoul Pal guesses the Trump administration will do whatever it takes on liquidity (paper over year-end funding cracks) because winning the 2026 midterms matters to it, which he reads as supportive for crypto and risk assets.
I don't know. My guess is 2026 is really important for the Trump administration to try and win. So they will do anything they can.
Raoul Pal expects the Fed to have to use the standing repo facility so banks can fund themselves into year-end 2025, because money markets were breaking and banks lacked liquidity.
They're going to have to do something with a standing repo facility to allow the banks to fund themselves into year end.
Raoul Pal speculates that Binance's internal market maker absorbed ~$20bn of Oct-10 liquidations and has been offloading $0.5-1bn a day for ~40 days, explaining the relentless daily selling in altcoins and Bitcoin.
So my guess is you've got a massive overhang of stuff. You probably bought it cheap. There may not even be a loss on this stuff, but they have to offload it. And so every day they offload a billion bucks a day or half a billion bucks a day every day for 40 days.
Raoul Pal says 2026 'probabilistically' has to be a good year for crypto because liquidity, fiscal stimulus, regulation changes and a midterm-motivated Treasury are all lined up.
has to be a good year, because of liquidity, fiscal stimulus, and all the other stuff that's coming, regulation changes, and a Treasury Secretary who really understands about the business cycle and how we need to jam it if you want to win the midterm elections
Raoul Pal guesses the no-tax-on-tips relief will reach workers sooner rather than later so the money starts flowing into the US economy ahead of the midterms.
And my guess is that will happen sooner rather than later, so that money can start filtering into the economy.
Raoul Pal says Bitcoin dominance is driven by the business cycle: it stays high while the cycle is weak and altcoins start outperforming once the cycle (ISM) turns up.
So from the work that we do, Bitcoin dominance is driven by the business cycle. So if the business cycle is lackluster or early stage, then Bitcoin dominance tends to be higher.
Raoul Pal says the institutional tokenization wave accrues to smart-contract chains (Ethereum, Solana, other layer-1s), not Bitcoin, and allocators are wildly underweight them.
But the actual action is about to happen in smart contract land, and people are wildly underweight that.
Raoul Pal says crypto networks should be valued on Metcalfe's law (users x value transacted), not cash flows, which he calls irrelevant today and possibly relevant only in ~15 years.
So I don't think cash flows are relevant at all today. They might be in 15 years' time, but not today.
Raoul Pal says Tesla, once dismissed, is being recognized as a networked AI/car/robot/logistics company and the market will price it as such.
Tesla, because nobody believed it was a network company. And sooner or later, everyone's realizing that this is networked AI across networked cars with networked robots, networked logistic chains.
Raoul Pal guesses institutions like BlackRock and DTCC will come around to public decentralized chains for security, with some private chains persisting like intranets.
So my guess is they'll come around to it. But yes, there will be some private chains, much like there's still private intranets.
Raoul Pal projects total crypto market cap rising from ~$3tn to about $100tn within roughly 10 years, by 2032-2034, by extrapolating the log trend.
I keep saying to just extrapolate out the log trend of the market cap of crypto, we're at $3 trillion today. If you extrapolate it out into this nice log regression like we all do on the Bitcoin chart, you get to about $100 trillion in 10 years time, or less, by 2032, 2034.
Raoul Pal tells host Scott that his model requires ~$7-8tn of new liquidity in the next 12 months and expects authorities to deliver it via SLR changes, fiscal stimulus and TGA drawdown, which is bullish for Bitcoin and risk assets in 2026.
And that tells us we need to create about $7 or $8 trillion of liquidity in the next 12 months to pay the interest on the debts.
Raoul Pal thinks the Zcash privacy thesis is right and the asset may matter in future, but expects it to be a hard asset to hold because banks and governments will try to shut it down.
I think the thesis is right, and it probably has a very important role in the future. But fuck me, it's going to be a hard asset to own when every bank wants to shut it down and every government wants to shut it down.
Raoul Pal says all his forward-looking indicators (financial conditions, global rate cuts) point to a strong US business cycle / rising ISM in 2026.
I've been doing business cycle analysis for 35 years. And really, really for 25 years as the main source of what I do, everything we look at says it's going to be strong, whether that's financial conditions