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Since they said it
5 directional calls with a price to read (1 bullish, 4 bearish). 1 week later, with the call in 0 of 4; 1 month later, with the call in 1 of 4. Prices as of 2026-09-11. Three fixed windows, the same for every call, always shown together: one week, one month, three months after the first close that followed the tape. What the market did, not a score: a call can have a different horizon, and a view with no number or deadline is never graded here.
WTI crude from 2026-06-17 to 2026-09-11 · ▲ bullish · ▼ bearish · dot = the close that day
Date
Market
Call
What was said
1 week
1 month
3 months
2026-09-10
from 99.65
WTI crude
Bearish (Hedged)
We'll be going down as soon as we win the war with Iran which is taking place right now. We'll win it. We're winning it.
“oil is going to be a little bit of a yo-yo for a while. It goes up a little bit, goes down a little bit, and when this is over, oil is going to drop like a rock.”
Donald Trump, in a convention speech clip, predicts to voters that the Iran war ends immediately after the November 2026 midterm election because Iran cannot hold out longer.
I think the war will end immediately after the election, because they can't hold out any longer.
Donald Trump pledges a $5,000 'Trump dividend' to every adult US citizen if Republicans keep both the House and Senate in November 2026.
If the Republicans win the House of Representatives and the United States Senate, both of them, I will issue a dividend to every adult citizen in the United States of America for $5,000.
President Trump says the Iran war will end immediately after the November 2026 election because Iran cannot hold out and is trying to influence the vote.
I think the war will end immediately after the election, because they can't hold out any longer. They're desperate to try and affect the election
Donald Trump tells reporter Josh Wingrove the Strait of Hormuz is open now and controlled by the US Navy blockade.
the only one that has control of the Strait of Hormuz right now is the United States Navy. We have a blockade that's been infallible. It's a steel wall.
Answering whether Iran moved centrifuges into Pickaxe Mountain: 'You're talking about the centrifuges. It doesn't mean anything unless they have the materials' @0:44, and 'But we'll be hitting that area pretty soon and very heavily' @1:03. Anchor cites Axios that Trump may launch a massive joint campaign with Israel @1:26.
“We follow the material, that's where the action is, and we'll be hitting that area probably pretty soon.”
Spoken en route to a dignified transfer ceremony at Dover after the 11th consecutive night of US strikes on Iran @0:59. The next transcript line, 'Everybody wants Iran to have a nuclear weapon' @0:29, is an apparent whisper garble (almost certainly 'Nobody wants') and is excluded from the quote. Reporter notes Rubio said Iran does not 'seem to be serious' about a settlement (paraphrase, not filed).
“Well, Americans aren't against the war, a poll just came out, Americans don't want to have gasoline prices, but they're not against the war, that just came out loud and clear in a poll.”
The post continues 'including those located next to or in the capital city of Tehran' @0:49. Oil prices reacting overnight; matches the video title about threatening retaliation against civilian targets. Filed secondhand: written statement read aloud by the reporter, not Trump's voice.
“anytime the Islamic Republic of Iran shoots at a ship in the Strait of Hormuz, whether it be by missile, rocket drone or any other device or weapon, the United States will bomb and destroy one bridge or power plant”
Played clip amid the fifth straight day of US-Iran strikes with oil under $80. Immediately before, asked 'Do you see inflation at the end of the year less than it is now?' he answers 'Well, I think so' @0:20. The 'drop like a rock' is conditional on the conflict ending. Clip date not stated on tape; aired Jul 16.
“oil is going to be a little bit of a yo-yo for a while. It goes up a little bit, goes down a little bit, and when this is over, oil is going to drop like a rock.”
Asked 'Would you be okay if the Federal Reserve paused rates for the rest of the year?' he first answers 'Well, it's better than raising them' @0:34 (interviewer's 'Okay' @0:36 excluded from quote). Panel notes this is a retreat from his earlier calls for 300bp of cuts @2:05.
“I mean, I'd like to see them go down. I'd like to see our country have the lowest rate anywhere in the world.”
Reacting to the new inflation report: 'the report was incredible. The inflation is way down' @0:21, contrasted with months of '9 and 10%' inflation under the prior administration @0:12. Aired the day June PPI fell more than expected after a cooler June CPI.
“Prices are way down. Prices are coming way down, and we're gonna bring 'em much lower.”
Oval Office remarks after June CPI printed the first monthly decline in six years (same tape @14:46); pitched to the midterms camera: 'Remember that for the midterms'
“Prices are coming way down and we're going to bring them much lower yet.”
On Warsh cutting: “He's a great guy and a great pro, and I know where he'd like to be, but he has to do what he has to do.” Wants lower rates (“they wanna bring it down by raising interest rates, and it shouldn't be that way”)