What the record says, in numbers a viewer can use.
Is the crowd worth following?
When the people on TV leaned one way on a market, the market was with them a month later 12 times out of 18, and two weeks later 14 out of 22.
A month later, by market
S&P 500 4 of 5 · Nasdaq 1 of 2 · gold 4 of 5 · oil 0 of 2 · Bitcoin 3 of 4
A lean is a week where at least 8 named voices put a call on one market and 60% or more pointed the same way. Green: the market moved that way over the next four weeks. Red: it did not. Small counts; this panel gets sharper every week.
Who to discount
Thomas Laffont: bullish in 11 of 11 calls. Ed Zitron: bullish in 0 of 11.
Share of a voice's directional calls that were bullish, for everyone with 8 or more on the record. A voice that always says the same thing is describing themselves, not the market.
The Fed, before the decision
Hold 15, Hike 4, Cut 1 among 20 named economists and strategists since August 1. The Fed decides on September 16.
Calls on the Fed, by week
07-06
07-13
07-20
08-10
08-17
08-31
09-07
Hike Hold Cut
The latest call from each voice
HoldBrien LundinGold Newsletter / New Orleans Investment Conference · 2026-09-08
“But if he really thinks he can conduct a campaign of rate hikes, then he hasn't done the math. And it just cannot be afforded. There's no way to afford it right now with the debt dislarged.”
HoldSteve MooreCommittee to Unleash Prosperity / WABC host · 2026-09-06
“Now, I don't think he's going to cut rates. I think he'll stand pat for a while, let the economy continue to grow.”
“this week's data gives a little bit more credibility to the doves that want to be patient, but not out of the woods yet for September, I would have thought.”
“The Fed needs to kind of have its inflation fighting credibility validated. And yes it's come down but you're still above 3 percent. So you can't get rid of that hike. That's very much price for this year.”
“I have a feeling if oil certainly stays in that low 80s, I don't see any way that worst is going to raise in September and the earnings parade continues.”
“There could be a hike, but in our forecast, we don't have a hike in the remainder of the year.”
Each voice counts once, by their most recent call. Scored on September 16, then rebuilt for the next meeting.
Numbers on the record: the S&P 500
The S&P 500 is at 7,636. The numbers on the record run from 6,800 (Michael Oliver) to 10,000 (Ed Yardeni).
Every price level a named voice said out loud, with the date. Green is above today, red below. Some are year-end targets, some are longer; the linked call carries the horizon. Price as of 2026-09-09.
Numbers on the record: gold
Gold is at 4,435. The numbers on the record run from 3,000 (Lobo Tiggre) to 5,000 (Brien Lundin).
Every price level a named voice said out loud, with the date. Green is above today, red below. Some are year-end targets, some are longer; the linked call carries the horizon. Price as of 2026-09-10.
Numbers on the record: oil
Oil is at 97.02. The numbers on the record run from 45.00 (Ryan Payne) to 200.0 (Amrita Sen).
Every price level a named voice said out loud, with the date. Green is above today, red below. Some are year-end targets, some are longer; the linked call carries the horizon. Price as of 2026-09-10.
Got loud, went quiet
Housing got 42% louder and The Fed and interest rates went 23% quieter in the last month of shows.
Housing
+42%
IPOs and SpaceX
+18%
The stock market
+15% S&P 500 -0.5%
Oil and the Gulf
+13% WTI crude +17.0%
Inflation
+12%
Tariffs
+8%
Jobs, growth and recession
+5%
Gold, silver and copper
+4% Gold +2.1%
The dollar and currencies
+4%
Bitcoin and crypto
-3% Bitcoin +23.0%
The AI trade
-4% Nasdaq -0.7%
Credit and leverage
-9%
The Fed and interest rates
-23%
Change in each subject's share of the conversation, weeks of 2026-08-10 to 2026-09-13 against 2026-07-13 to 2026-08-09, with the market's move over the same month where one applies.
Changed their mind
12 voices were bullish on a market and later bearish, or the reverse. The two quotes, side by side.
““China has found a software workaround to its hardware constraints and that is what the market is pricing in here on the AI picks and showers trade and that is what will continue to play out.””
Bullish2026-08-14
“So there is an incredible amount of demand for tech debt.”
““Then gold falls. And that's what I believe we saw back in the beginning of the year. China went right, we're not we're not going to invade Taiwan next year in May. And that was it.””
Bullish2026-08-13
“Gold and silver are good at these prices. I mean, you might be able to buy a lot cheaper, but in the long run, you'll get a good return.”
““I think if you look at the kind of spending they're doing, then the asset heavy is a concern if they become kind of industrial tech companies, which probably longer term warrants a lower type of ...”
Bullish2026-08-12
“I think the demand clearly is very, very strong.”