Mike Wilson
Morgan Stanley
Photo: editorial use
First call on the ledger
No calls filed yet. Quotes in curly quotation marks are verbatim; everything else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.
Since they said it
9 directional calls with a price to read (5 bullish, 4 bearish). 1 week later, with the call in 3 of 4; 1 month later, with the call in 2 of 4. Prices as of 2026-09-11. Three fixed windows, the same for every call, always shown together: one week, one month, three months after the first close that followed the tape. What the market did, not a score: a call can have a different horizon, and a view with no number or deadline is never graded here.
S&P 500 from 2026-06-29 to 2026-09-10 · ▲ bullish · ▼ bearish · dot = the close that day
| Date | Market | Call | What was said | 1 week | 1 month | 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 from 102.5 | WTI crude | Bullish (Leaning) | And it looks to me like it's going to be oil prices going up because there's no demand destruction. | not yet | not yet | not yet |
| 2026-09-09 from 4,364 | Gold | Bullish (Leaning) | gold and crypto are probably good hedges against inflation getting out of bounds. | not yet | not yet | not yet |
| 2026-09-09 anchor: next close | US long bonds (US 30-yr yield) | Bearish | own the S&P 500, okay, don't own long bonds. I mean, like long bonds have been a train wreck for five years. | not yet | not yet | not yet |
| 2026-09-09 from 7,592 | S&P 500 | Bullish | But we're in a bull market. Okay, let's not ignore that factor. We are in a bull market. Okay, the economy is fine. | not yet | not yet | not yet |
| 2026-09-09 from 7,592 | S&P 500 | Bearish (Hedged) | But I do think in 2027, we could see a liquidity tightening, some of which is just a massive issuance from corporate and from sovereign. | not yet | not yet | not yet |
| 2026-07-28 from 7,316 | S&P 500 | Bullish | “I'm pretty comfortable saying that 7,000 on the S&P 500 will be defended” | +5.6% with the call | +5.7% with the call | not yet |
| 2026-07-28 from 24,443 | Nasdaq | Bearish | “the free cash flow generation is atro cious” | +7.9% against the call | +8.6% against the call | not yet |
| 2026-07-28 from 24,443 | Nasdaq | Bullish | “It doesn't mean the CapEx cycle is over. It just means we over discounted it” | +7.9% with the call | +8.6% with the call | not yet |
| 2026-06-18 from 74.82 | WTI crude | Bearish | Very bearish oil; crude 'can only get to ~$125' Bloomberg | -5.4% with the call | +16.1% against the call | not yet |
Where they stand
Views on the record but not scoreable bets: no single number and deadline to grade. Shown in their exact words, never scored.
BullishOil & Gas
Wilson expects record crack spreads to narrow via crude rising rather than product prices falling, since there is no demand destruction
And it looks to me like it's going to be oil prices going up because there's no demand destruction.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +3.7% · 96.05 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
BullishOil & Gas
Wilson recommends continuing to own energy stocks as a portfolio hedge against oil rising, framed as a quality/factor call
And I think you should continue to own energy stocks as a hedge in your portfolio because we like the quality parts of the market
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +3.7% · 96.05 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
BullishGlobal Equities
Wilson says do not cut equity exposure; upgrade it: S&P over foreign markets and quality over low-quality stocks
I don't think people should be reducing their equity exposure. What they should be doing is upgrading the portfolio, which is what we've been doing, which is S&P over foreign markets
BullishGold & Hard Assets
Wilson says gold and crypto are probably good hedges against an inflation overshoot
gold and crypto are probably good hedges against inflation getting out of bounds.
Gold since this was said: ▼ -0.9% · 4,416 → 4,375 · as of 2026-09-11
BearishThe Fed
Wilson tells nervous investors to own the S&P 500 and avoid long bonds, which he says have been a train wreck for five years
own the S&P 500, okay, don't own long bonds. I mean, like long bonds have been a train wreck for five years.
BullishThe S&P 500
Mike Wilson (Morgan Stanley) tells Bloomberg US equities remain in a bull market and the economy is fine despite oil, wars and erratic policy
But we're in a bull market. Okay, let's not ignore that factor. We are in a bull market. Okay, the economy is fine.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▼ -0.6% · 7,636 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
NeutralThe Fed
Wilson expects the new Fed chair not to tighten the balance sheet aggressively into the midterms
I don't think the Fed chair is going to be really overly tight on balance sheet going into midterms.
BearishThe Crash Question
Wilson says a liquidity tightening from massive corporate and sovereign issuance could arrive in 2027, but he is not ready to call it yet
But I do think in 2027, we could see a liquidity tightening, some of which is just a massive issuance from corporate and from sovereign.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▼ -0.6% · 7,636 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
BearishThe Crash Question
Wilson says an oil-driven liquidity drain plus heavy issuance could bring an S&P correction within 30 days, but a correction, not the end of the bull market
that's another reason why I think we could have a correction in the next 30 days. But it's a correction. It's not the end.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▼ -0.6% · 7,636 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
BullishThe AI IPOs
Wilson says issuance windows are less wide open than 6-12 months ago, with some lower-quality deterioration, but buying demand for new issuance remains ample
So I don't think it's as wide open perhaps as it was six, eight, 12 months ago. But I do think we still have quite a bit of buying demand for new issuance.
BullishThe S&P 500
his support level; he would buy aggressively if breached. support call, not a floor guarantee
“I'm pretty comfortable saying that 7,000 on the S&P 500 will be defended”
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +2.2% · 7,429 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
BullishThe S&P 500
his year-end target restated through the correction
“I still think we can hit 8,000 by year end, even if we go to 7,000 first”
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +2.2% · 7,429 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
BearishThe AI Trade
why hyperscaler stocks underperform despite good earnings. backward-looking diagnosis from an index bull, not a sell call
“the free cash flow generation is atro cious”
Nasdaq since this was said: ▲ +4.8% · 24,877 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
BullishThe AI Trade
his read of the de-rating
“It doesn't mean the CapEx cycle is over. It just means we over discounted it”
Nasdaq since this was said: ▲ +4.8% · 24,877 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
DovishThe Fed
Rates are a 'sideshow'; a hawkish rate move is unlikely
Mike Wilson · Morgan Stanley · BloombergBearishOil & Gas
Very bearish oil; crude 'can only get to ~$125'
Mike Wilson · Morgan Stanley · BloombergWTI crude since this was said: ▲ +30.1% · 76.60 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
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We write down what public figures predict, in their exact words, and check the result when the deadline arrives. Every line links to its source. How we score · Corrections · The scoreboard · The data
© 2026 Pundit Rumble · independent and unaffiliated · updated every market morning · not investment advice.
We write down what public figures predict, in their exact words, and check the result when the deadline arrives. Every line links to its source. How we score · Corrections · The scoreboard · The data
© 2026 Pundit Rumble · independent and unaffiliated · updated every market morning · not investment advice.