Ed Yardeni
Yardeni Research
Photo: Editorial (Option A policy, Jun 10, 2026) - owner-supplied
First call on the ledger
2 still on the clock. Quotes in curly quotation marks are verbatim; everything else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.
On the clock
Written down and dated. Not judged until the deadline arrives.
A quarter-point Fed rate hike is “likely” in July 2026 to appease the bond vigilantes.
“We are raising our year-end S&P 500 target from 7700 to 8250.”
S&P 500 since the call: ▲ +4.6% · 7,399 → 7,742 · as of 2026-08-05
Where they stand
Views on the record but not scoreable bets: no single number and deadline to grade. Shown in their exact words, never scored.
BullThe S&P 500
Year-end S&P target 8,250 now fairly conservative (whisper garbles year-end as urine). Identity: title + the 8,250 target matching his registered house call. EVENT: will, dated year-end.
It's going higher. I mean, my urine forecast is 8,250. And all of a sudden, that looks fairly conservative. It's only six and a half percent away.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +0.1% · 7,737 → 7,742 · as of 2026-08-05
BullThe S&P 500
Forward earnings above $400 by year-end; 400 x 20 = 8,000 with upside on both terms. EVENT: will, dated.
It's an all-time record high. I think it's going to hit over $400 a share by the end of the year, which will be the expectations for next year. Take 400 times 20, and you've got 8,000 pretty reasonable estimates. I think earnings are going to be somewhat better, and the valuation multiple may be higher. So I'm feeling pretty comfortable with that, yes.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +0.1% · 7,737 → 7,742 · as of 2026-08-05
BullAi Cycle
Semis cheap, tech at a market multiple; categorical rejection of the 1999-2000 parallel.
And when you look at the S&P 500 and information technology, it looks nothing like what we had back in 1999 and 2000. So all of a sudden, all this talk about this being a tech bubble is kind of thrown out the window.
BullStock Picks
Trackable sector stance: OW financials, industrials, health care; market-weight tech.
Absolutely. We've been recommending market weighting information technology since the end of last year. And I think on balance, that's actually worked out reasonably well. We've been recommending over weighting financials, industrials and health care. And that's worked out very well.
NeutralBonds
the bond vigilantes will keep pushing yields up until Warsh actually hikes
“if he's gonna talk hawkish but not actually act hawkish, then they're gonna have to continue to raise rates”
NeutralFed
Warsh's hawkish June pivot meant a July hike had to follow; the hold failed his credibility test
“if you pivot in June from easing to tightening as a stance, then I think by July you have to deliver”
NeutralBonds
victory lap on opposing the 2024 cuts
“the bond market agreed with me, my friends, the bond vigilantes, took bond yields up 100 basis points. So did the Fed really ease?”
BullThe S&P 500
long-run index target. condition on tape: if the roaring 2020s works; he also expects one or two Fed hikes
“I've got 10,000 on the S&P 500 by the end of the decade”
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +4.4% · 7,412 → 7,742 · as of 2026-08-05
NeutralWealth
retirement wealth backdrop. STANCE corrected bull->neutral: a statistic; the inference lives around it
“baby boomers have $90 trillion”
NeutralThe S&P 500
market since the 7,500 print
“we've been in a summer stall since May 14th”
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +4.4% · 7,412 → 7,742 · as of 2026-08-05
BullThe S&P 500
his year-end S&P target reaffirmed
“Yeah, 8,250.”
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +4.4% · 7,412 → 7,742 · as of 2026-08-05
BullEarnings
earnings support for stocks. half of a two-sided framing that nets to his summer-stall call
“very bullish environment on the earnings”
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +4.4% · 7,412 → 7,742 · as of 2026-08-05
DoveInflation
Headline inflation coming down substantially as oil/gas fall
Ed Yardeni · Yardeni Research · BloombergHoldThe Fed
“We thought he was a dove who favored lowering the federal funds rate. Instead, he hammered home a strict orthodox message on inflation with a strong commitment to price stability” (his written note, read on air); “it may be a do nothing Fed for a while”
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We write down what public figures predict, in their exact words, and check the result when the deadline arrives. Every line links to its source. How we score · Corrections · The scoreboard
© 2026 Pundit Rumble · independent and unaffiliated · updated every market morning · not investment advice.
We write down what public figures predict, in their exact words, and check the result when the deadline arrives. Every line links to its source. How we score · Corrections · The scoreboard
© 2026 Pundit Rumble · independent and unaffiliated · updated every market morning · not investment advice.