Ed Yardeni
Yardeni Research
Photo: Editorial (Option A policy, Jun 10, 2026) - owner-supplied
First call on the ledger
2 still on the clock. Quotes in curly quotation marks are verbatim; everything else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.
Since they said it
8 directional calls with a price to read (6 bullish, 2 bearish). 1 week later, with the call in 5 of 8; 1 month later, with the call in 4 of 5. Prices as of 2026-09-11. Three fixed windows, the same for every call, always shown together: one week, one month, three months after the first close that followed the tape. What the market did, not a score: a call can have a different horizon, and a view with no number or deadline is never graded here.
S&P 500 from 2026-06-29 to 2026-09-10 · ▲ bullish · ▼ bearish · dot = the close that day
| Date | Market | Call | What was said | 1 week | 1 month | 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 from 7,799 | S&P 500 | Bullish | No, I think the market is going higher, and I think it's going higher on earnings. | -2.0% against the call | not yet | not yet |
| 2026-08-11 from 7,748 | S&P 500 | Bullish | I don't think we're going to have a recession, and I think earnings will continue to surprise to the upside, and that'll continue to drive the market higher. | -0.5% against the call | not yet | not yet |
| 2026-08-11 from 5.24% | US long-end Treasuries (US 30-yr yield) | Bearish (Hedged) | Even if the Fed were trying to lower interest rates on the short end, you could have a revolt on the long end. | -5 bp against the call | not yet | not yet |
| 2026-08-11 from 159.3 | Japanese yen (Dollar-yen) | Bearish (Hedged) | But unless they actually raise interest rates significantly, then this currency crisis may not be over. | +0.2% with the call | -3.6% against the call | not yet |
| 2026-08-04 from 7,724 | S&P 500 | Bullish | It's going higher. I mean, my year-end forecast is 8,250. And all of a sudden, that looks fairly conservative. It's only six and a half percent away. | +0.3% with the call | +0.3% with the call | not yet |
| 2026-08-04 from 26,363 | Nasdaq | Bullish | And when you look at the S&P 500 and information technology, it looks nothing like what we had back in 1999 and 2000. So all of a sudden, all this talk about this being a tech bubble is kind of thrown out the window. | +0.8% with the call | +0.8% with the call | not yet |
| 2026-07-25 from 7,413 | S&P 500 | Bullish | “I've got 10,000 on the S&P 500 by the end of the decade” | +2.5% with the call | +3.6% with the call | not yet |
| 2026-07-24 from 7,413 | S&P 500 | Bullish | “Yeah, 8,250.” | +2.5% with the call | +3.6% with the call | not yet |
On the clock
Written down and dated. Not judged until the deadline arrives.
A quarter-point Fed rate hike is “likely” in July 2026 to appease the bond vigilantes.
“We are raising our year-end S&P 500 target from 7700 to 8250.”
S&P 500 since the call: ▲ +2.6% · 7,399 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
Where they stand
Views on the record but not scoreable bets: no single number and deadline to grade. Shown in their exact words, never scored.
BullishThe S&P 500
Ed Yardeni tells Bloomberg the market is going higher on earnings, rejecting the 'as good as it gets' view.
No, I think the market is going higher, and I think it's going higher on earnings.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▼ -2.0% · 7,748 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
BullishThe S&P 500
Yardeni tells Bloomberg S&P earnings are up ~25% in Q2 ex mark-to-market gains with similar Q3/Q4, so he was not bullish enough.
But take that out, and you basically have 25% increase in earnings in the second quarter, and about the same in the third and fourth quarters.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▼ -2.0% · 7,748 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
BullishThe S&P 500
Yardeni tells Bloomberg he now expects the market to discount $415 of S&P 500 EPS for next year, up from $375.
Now I've raised that to $415 a share for next year.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▼ -2.0% · 7,748 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
BullishThe S&P 500
Yardeni tells Bloomberg his new S&P 500 target is 8,400 by year-end 2026 (415 EPS x ~20).
415 times a little bit over $20, and you get my new target of $8,400.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▼ -2.0% · 7,748 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
BullishThe S&P 500
Yardeni tells Bloomberg he keeps his S&P 500 target of 10,000 by the end of the decade.
It's gone well, and I think by the end of the decade, we should be looking at $10,000.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▼ -2.0% · 7,748 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
NeutralThe Fed
Yardeni tells Bloomberg 10-year yields of 4-5% are normal and reflect a strong economy, not a threat.
I don't really get freaked out by bond yields between 4% and 5%, the 10-year between 4% and 5% in the US.
BullishThe U.S. Economy
Ed Yardeni tells Maggie Lake the US economy will remain resilient through the end of the decade.
the economy is going to remain resilient through the end of the decade
BullishThe Crash Question
Yardeni tells Lake there will be no recession, earnings keep surprising up and the stock market keeps going higher.
I don't think we're going to have a recession, and I think earnings will continue to surprise to the upside, and that'll continue to drive the market higher.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▼ -1.8% · 7,728 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
BullishThe U.S. Economy
Yardeni tells Lake the economy is bulletproof because wealthy boomer consumers are bulletproof, plus the AI capex boom.
It's because the consumer is bulletproof. And on top of all that, we've got the AI capital spending boom.
BearishThe Fed
Yardeni tells Lake that even if the Fed eased the short end, bond vigilantes could push long-end yields up (a hedged risk, not a forecast).
Even if the Fed were trying to lower interest rates on the short end, you could have a revolt on the long end.
US 30-yr yield since this was said: 5.24% → 5.28% (+4 bp) · as of 2026-09-09
BullishThe Fed
Yardeni tells Lake the long-feared US debt debacle has not happened in 45 years and buyers showed up at 5%, so he does not expect one.
But I've been doing this for over 45 years. And over that entire period, people have been worrying about a debt debacle. And it just hasn't happened so far.
NeutralInflation
Yardeni tells Lake unit labor cost growth of 1.4% means underlying labor-market inflation is a disinflationary force.
And the unit labor basis is down to 1.4 percent. I mean, it's very, very low.
NeutralThe Fed
Yardeni tells Lake supply-shock inflation may prove transitory but the Fed cannot afford to assume so after losing credibility in 2021.
And so it may turn out to be relatively transitory, but I didn't know that the Fed can take a chance on that the way they did in 2021 and lost some of their credibility
NeutralThe Fed
Yardeni tells Lake the Fed under Warsh should hike a quarter point in September to protect its credibility.
And so I think the Fed's credibility is on the line again. And I think they should move in September. I mean, a quarter point is going to do more for the credibility than it's going to hurt the economy.
NeutralThe Fed
Yardeni tells Lake $1.5-2tn deficits and over $1tn of interest payments are currently stimulating the economy.
the government has been spending, you know, one and a half to two trillion dollars worth of deficits. We're spending over a trillion dollars just on interest income.
BullishThe U.S. Economy
Yardeni tells Lake the economy is doing very well on consumer, capex and deficit spending, though some growth is borrowed from the future.
and you've got an economy that's doing very well. But some of it could be borrowing from the future for sure. And some of it is ongoing resilience of the economy today.
BullishHousing
Yardeni tells Lake boomers not selling constrains housing supply, so US home prices keep rising.
I mean, the Baby Boomers, they're not selling their houses. They're not moving into smaller apartment buildings. As a result, the supply of housing is rather constrained. And so home prices are going up.
BullishThe Fed
Yardeni tells Lake investors will buy Treasuries at 5% and auctions are going fine, so deficit fear is overdone.
but we did see that there are investors will buy bonds of 5%. I think it's important to realize that as long as the bond auctions are going reasonably well
NeutralThe Fed
Yardeni tells Lake $31tn of US marketable debt is held by a public that wants to own it.
I mean, there's $31 trillion of US marketable debt held by the public.
NeutralThe Dollar
Yardeni tells Lake the Bank of Japan needs to raise rates substantially to align with the rest of the world.
what they really need to do is raise their interest rates substantially in order to be in line with interest rates in the rest of the world.
BearishThe Dollar
Yardeni tells Lake the yen crisis may not be over unless the BOJ hikes significantly.
But unless they actually raise interest rates significantly, then this currency crisis may not be over.
Dollar-yen since this was said: ▼ -3.3% · 159.2 → 153.9 · as of 2026-09-11
NeutralInflation
Yardeni tells Lake this week's CPI (nowcast ~0.29% m/m) will not be a shock in either direction.
I think they're looking for a number like point zero point two nine or something like that. I don't think it's going to be a shocker either to the upside or the downside.
NeutralThe Fed
Yardeni tells Lake Warsh has committed to 2% inflation and will owe an explanation if core CPI stays near 3%.
So he's kind of committed himself to get inflation down to two percent. And if the next CPI number remains closer to three percent, especially when you take out food and energy, then he's got an explaining to do.
BullishThe S&P 500
Year-end S&P target 8,250 now fairly conservative (whisper garbles year-end as urine). Identity: title + the 8,250 target matching his registered house call. EVENT: will, dated year-end.
It's going higher. I mean, my year-end forecast is 8,250. And all of a sudden, that looks fairly conservative. It's only six and a half percent away.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▼ -1.9% · 7,737 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
BullishThe S&P 500
Forward earnings above $400 by year-end; 400 x 20 = 8,000 with upside on both terms. EVENT: will, dated.
It's an all-time record high. I think it's going to hit over $400 a share by the end of the year, which will be the expectations for next year. Take 400 times 20, and you've got 8,000 pretty reasonable estimates. I think earnings are going to be somewhat better, and the valuation multiple may be higher. So I'm feeling pretty comfortable with that, yes.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▼ -1.9% · 7,737 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
BullishThe AI Trade
Semis cheap, tech at a market multiple; categorical rejection of the 1999-2000 parallel.
And when you look at the S&P 500 and information technology, it looks nothing like what we had back in 1999 and 2000. So all of a sudden, all this talk about this being a tech bubble is kind of thrown out the window.
Nasdaq since this was said: ▼ -1.9% · 26,585 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
BullishStock Picks
Trackable sector stance: OW financials, industrials, health care; market-weight tech.
Absolutely. We've been recommending market weighting information technology since the end of last year. And I think on balance, that's actually worked out reasonably well. We've been recommending over weighting financials, industrials and health care. And that's worked out very well.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▼ -1.9% · 7,737 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
NeutralBonds
the bond vigilantes will keep pushing yields up until Warsh actually hikes
“if he's gonna talk hawkish but not actually act hawkish, then they're gonna have to continue to raise rates”
US 10-yr yield since this was said: 4.66% → 4.94% (+28 bp) · as of 2026-09-10
NeutralFed
Warsh's hawkish June pivot meant a July hike had to follow; the hold failed his credibility test
“if you pivot in June from easing to tightening as a stance, then I think by July you have to deliver”
NeutralBonds
victory lap on opposing the 2024 cuts
“the bond market agreed with me, my friends, the bond vigilantes, took bond yields up 100 basis points. So did the Fed really ease?”
US 10-yr yield since this was said: 4.66% → 4.94% (+28 bp) · as of 2026-09-10
BullishThe S&P 500
long-run index target. condition on tape: if the roaring 2020s works; he also expects one or two Fed hikes
“I've got 10,000 on the S&P 500 by the end of the decade”
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +2.4% · 7,412 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
NeutralWealth
retirement wealth backdrop. STANCE corrected bull->neutral: a statistic; the inference lives around it
“baby boomers have $90 trillion”
NeutralThe S&P 500
market since the 7,500 print
“we've been in a summer stall since May 14th”
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +2.4% · 7,412 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
BullishThe S&P 500
his year-end S&P target reaffirmed
“Yeah, 8,250.”
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +2.4% · 7,412 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
BullishEarnings
earnings support for stocks. half of a two-sided framing that nets to his summer-stall call
“very bullish environment on the earnings”
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +2.4% · 7,412 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
DovishInflation
Headline inflation coming down substantially as oil/gas fall
Ed Yardeni · Yardeni Research · BloombergHoldThe Fed
“We thought he was a dove who favored lowering the federal funds rate. Instead, he hammered home a strict orthodox message on inflation with a strong commitment to price stability” (his written note, read on air); “it may be a do nothing Fed for a while”
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We write down what public figures predict, in their exact words, and check the result when the deadline arrives. Every line links to its source. How we score · Corrections · The scoreboard · The data
© 2026 Pundit Rumble · independent and unaffiliated · updated every market morning · not investment advice.
We write down what public figures predict, in their exact words, and check the result when the deadline arrives. Every line links to its source. How we score · Corrections · The scoreboard · The data
© 2026 Pundit Rumble · independent and unaffiliated · updated every market morning · not investment advice.