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Jeremy Siegel

Wharton
First call on the ledger

No calls filed yet. Quotes in curly quotation marks are verbatim; everything else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.

Since they said it

6 directional calls with a price to read (4 bullish, 2 bearish). 1 week later, with the call in 2 of 6; 1 month later, with the call in 1 of 5. Prices as of 2026-09-10. Three fixed windows, the same for every call, always shown together: one week, one month, three months after the first close that followed the tape. What the market did, not a score: a call can have a different horizon, and a view with no number or deadline is never graded here.

S&P 500 from 2026-06-29 to 2026-09-10 · ▲ bullish · ▼ bearish · dot = the close that day
7,7997,316
DateMarketCallWhat was said1 week1 month3 months
2026-08-13
from 7,786
S&P 500BullishYeah, blown away by the earnings momentum and continuing good news.-1.4%
against the call
not yetnot yet
2026-08-10
from 26,445
NasdaqBullish (Leaning)the hyper-scale spending is doing well it's forty percent of the s_n_p_ so that can continue to go do well-0.6%
against the call
-1.4%
against the call
not yet
2026-08-10
from 7,728
S&P 500Bullish (Leaning)that hope is i think what is keeping the stock market up i'm not pessimistic about that-0.5%
against the call
-1.8%
against the call
not yet
2026-07-27
from 7,429
S&P 500Bullish“it's a 10% pop on the S&P, I think, without question”+4.1%
with the call
+3.3%
with the call
not yet
2026-07-27
from 24,877
NasdaqBearish“excessive investment lowers returns”+6.9%
against the call
+5.0%
against the call
not yet
2026-07-10
from 25,873
NasdaqBearish (Hedged)“I did talk about frothing some of the chips. And, you know, we were talking about are these ultimately still going to be commodities in the sense that these margins are not going to hold up.”-1.4%
with the call
+2.2%
against the call
not yet

Where they stand

Views on the record but not scoreable bets: no single number and deadline to grade. Shown in their exact words, never scored.

BullishThe S&P 500 2026-08-13
Jeremy Siegel tells CNBC he is blown away by S&P 500 earnings momentum.
Yeah, blown away by the earnings momentum and continuing good news.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▼ -2.7% · 7,799 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
BullishThe Crash Question leaning · 2026-08-13
Siegel tells CNBC last week's liquidity event was a clearing event and market leverage is not excessive.
And I think that gave confidence to people. There's some leverage built in there, but it's not excessive.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▼ -2.7% · 7,799 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
HoldThe Fed hedged · 2026-08-13
Siegel tells CNBC that if oil stays in the low $80s the Fed will not hike in September.
I have a feeling if oil certainly stays in that low 80s, I don't see any way that worst is going to raise in September and the earnings parade continues.
BullishThe U.S. Economy hedged · 2026-08-13
Siegel tells CNBC AI-driven productivity should pick up in Q3 and Q4 2026 after lagging in H1.
And productivity, which has lagged the first two quarters of this year, but it looks like it might really pick up in this third and fourth quarter.
BullishThe AI Trade hedged · 2026-08-13
Siegel tells CNBC non-tech S&P 500 margins can expand dramatically if firms use AI to cut costs.
margins overall on the S&P are at all-time highs. But if you take out the tech communication, they've been relatively stable. But they can improve dramatically if they can use what AI is designed for, and that is to reduce costs.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▼ -2.7% · 7,799 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
BullishThe S&P 500 2026-08-13
Siegel tells CNBC the market is not inappropriately bullish at this point.
I do not think it's inappropriately bullish at this point.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▼ -2.7% · 7,799 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
BullishStock Picks leaning · 2026-08-13
Siegel tells CNBC the growth-to-value rotation is still under way even after the bounce from the liquidity event.
But if you take a look at the broader trend, that rotation is still taking place.
BullishStock Picks 2026-08-13
Siegel tells CNBC he likes ~15x P/E stocks that have yet to capture AI gains.
I like the 15 P.E. stocks that potentially have gains from AI.
BearishInflation 2026-08-10
Jeremy Siegel (Wharton) says workers are losing to inflation: July wages rose only 3.2% against CPI expected at 3.4%.
so what does that mean workers are losing to inflation
BearishThe U.S. Economy leaning · 2026-08-10
Jeremy Siegel thinks the Atlanta Fed's over-5% Q3 GDP tracking is too optimistic and that 3-3.5% would still be enough to lift productivity and real wages.
atlanta fed thinks it's going to be over five percent i think that's too optimistic for the third quarter
BullishThe U.S. Economy leaning · 2026-08-10
Jeremy Siegel expects Q3 productivity growth to rebound after three quarters below the 15-year average.
i think we've had three quarters of us fallen back i'm looking for this next quarter to bring us back up
HoldThe Fed hedged · 2026-08-10
Jeremy Siegel says if oil stays flat or falls it will be hard for Warsh to hike, noting his frequent conversations with Trump and the approaching midterms.
if oil stays where it is or goes down honestly it's going to be pretty hard i think for warsch to increase
BullishThe AI Trade leaning · 2026-08-10
Jeremy Siegel says tech margins are incredible and hyperscaler spending, which he puts at 40% of the S&P, can continue to do well even as workers struggle.
the hyper-scale spending is doing well it's forty percent of the s_n_p_ so that can continue to go do well
Nasdaq since this was said: ▼ -2.0% · 26,605 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
BullishThe S&P 500 leaning · 2026-08-10
Jeremy Siegel is not pessimistic on the stock market, which he says is held up by the hope that AI gains filter down to average companies' margins.
that hope is i think what is keeping the stock market up i'm not pessimistic about that
S&P 500 since this was said: ▼ -2.1% · 7,753 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
BullishValuation 2026-07-27
pushing back on bubble comparisons. comparative claim, not a cheapness claim
“1999 and 2000 were far more expensive than we have today”
Jeremy Siegel · Wharton · CNBC ↗
BullishThe S&P 500 2026-07-27
if the Iran war pauses and the strait reopens
“it's a 10% pop on the S&P, I think, without question”
Jeremy Siegel · Wharton · CNBC ↗
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +2.4% · 7,413 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
HoldFed 2026-07-27
Wednesday FOMC expectation. paired with hawkish worry on tape
“I don't think there's going to be any rate increase at all on Wednesday”
Jeremy Siegel · Wharton · CNBC ↗
NeutralThe AI Trade 2026-07-27
how the market now treats AI spending
“the word cap X has become toxic”
Jeremy Siegel · Wharton · CNBC ↗
Nasdaq since this was said: ▲ +4.6% · 24,932 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
BearishThe AI Trade 2026-07-27
the historical record on heavy-capex firms. scoped to capex-heavy firms; he stays optimistic on the market overall
“excessive investment lowers returns”
Jeremy Siegel · Wharton · CNBC ↗
Nasdaq since this was said: ▲ +4.6% · 24,932 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
BullishThe S&P 500 2026-07-27
overall stance despite the capex worry
“I'm still very optimistic on the market”
Jeremy Siegel · Wharton · CNBC ↗
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +2.4% · 7,413 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
BearishAI Winners & Chips hedged · 2026-07-10
Carving the Mag 7 and chips out of his earnings-season reassurance; 'frothing' is the tape's rendering of 'froth in'
“I did talk about frothing some of the chips. And, you know, we were talking about are these ultimately still going to be commodities in the sense that these margins are not going to hold up.”
Jeremy Siegel · Wharton · CNBC ↗
Nasdaq since this was said: ▼ -0.8% · 26,282 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10

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