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Rebecca Patterson
Council on Foreign Relations (former Bridgewater chief investment strategist)
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NeutralThe Fed
leaning · 2026-07-16
Asked to synthesize resilient retail sales and this week's soft CPI/PPI, she notes oil is 'an upside risk' (@0:59) and inflation is 'still way over the Fed's target for more than five years' (@1:22), so the market's hike bias is rational.
“And so if you have a resilient economy, you have question marks about the Fed's commitment, despite what Warsh says very resolutely, I think it makes sense that the market is biased towards hikes.”
She also dismisses near-term balance-sheet easing: 'balance sheet, if it comes into play, it's a next year story, not this year' (@2:17), because a rate-cut-equivalent shrinkage 'is going to be incredibly disruptive' (@2:11).
“So the idea of a rate cut this year, I think is, unless there's some catalyst totally off the table”
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