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Gareth Soloway
VerifiedInvesting.com (CEO, chief market strategist)
First call on the ledger
No calls filed yet. Quotes in curly quotation marks are verbatim; everything
else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.
Where they stand
Views on the record but not scoreable bets: no single number and deadline to grade. Shown in their exact words, never scored.
Cyclical/bubble analog; 'this time is not different'.
“The semis eventually will see downside of as much as 75%.”
Taiwan Semi guided margins lower; 'the trade is already cracking'.
“I am relatively confident, high probability that the top is in for the cycle of these.”
7,300 is the 'line in the sand'; below it, 7,000 then 6,300.
“as long as the S&P stays above 7,300, I would maintain a bullish bias on the S&P”
President wants oil down into the midterms; heavy technical resistance; he invites accountability.
“I do not anticipate oil going back above 100 this year... I think by the midterms, we're back to the 60s.”
Wedge favors one more downside flush; a buyer below 4,000; long-term mega-bull.
“there might be one final flush down to about the 3,500 level, but basically anything below 4,000, I'm starting to look at it very attractively as a buy.”
Inverse head-and-shoulders target; a break of 58k flips him bearish.
“maybe we're due for a run up to about the 71, 72,000 level... If it ever takes out the 58,000 level to the downside, then I would have to flip back to being bearish for a move down to 50,000”
Apple at massive resistance; economy weakens by year end.
“After a bounce, semis are going to go lower and I think Apple goes lower as well.”
NeutralThe Fed
leaning · 2026-07-18
Expects Warsh to resist hikes given the Trump appointment.
“I would at most expect one rate hike the end of this or later in this year and possibly no rate hikes and even cuts as early as next year.”
Hikes already priced; economy potentially weakening.
“it's very likely we could start heading down on yields over the next, let's say, three to six months.”
Oversold with converging trend lines; contrarian vs the debt bears.
“This to me could bounce back to 150 within days on the charts as well.”
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