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Michael Reid tells the anchor energy prices and tariffs showing up in PPI will pass through into CPI.
That's the number one concern. Let's not forget we still have tariffs on the table, which are adding pressure. That's showing up in PPI, and ultimately, this is gonna pass through from PPI into CPI.
Michael Reid tells the anchor that if the Fed does decide to hike, one 25bp move would not be enough and it should reverse at least three of last year's cuts, while his base case remains on hold.
So at a minimum, they should be putting at least three cuts back in. If their belief is the labor market's fine and this inflationary pressure continues.
Michael Reid tells the anchor inflation-indexed entitlement spending adds to the deficit and that realisation is what pressures the long end of the Treasury curve.
That is adding to the deficit. And so when you're thinking about the long end of the curve, that's where a lot of this pressure is coming from the realization that this is not a problem, that is easily solved.
Michael Reid tells the anchor RBC's base case is that the Fed remains on hold.
I mean, look, right now our base case is that the Fed remains on hold.
Michael Reid tells the anchor hiking with a blunt tool risks crushing demand among a credit-reliant, lower-income consumer base already in pain, which supports his on-hold base case.
So there's a risk that you could really crush demand in a consumer base that is already feeling this pain.
Michael Reid tells the anchor services inflation will not fall much further, so any disinflation has to come from goods, which are instead heating up.
We think services, it's come down, but you're not gonna get much deflation there. Historically, you look back, you're just not gonna get help. And so you need goods to move lower.
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