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Bill Campbell
DoubleLine (portfolio manager, global sovereign and EM)
First call on the ledger
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else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.
Where they stand
Views on the record but not scoreable bets: no single number and deadline to grade. Shown in their exact words, never scored.
NeutralThe Fed
leaning · 2026-08-12
Bill Campbell (DoubleLine) tells Bloomberg's The Close that the in-line July CPI changes nothing for Treasury investors and just pushes the Fed decision to the August CPI and jobs reports and Jackson Hole.
Honestly, I don't think so. I think the CPI report coming out pretty much, you know, as the market expected, just kind of kicks the can forward to the two August reports
Bill Campbell (DoubleLine) tells Bloomberg he continues to favor short-end Treasuries because the 2-year at ~4.20% already prices in a Fed hike.
we continue to favor the short end treasuries. If you look at the two years up at 420 today, you're basically pricing the hike in.
Bill Campbell (DoubleLine) tells Bloomberg that heavy hyperscaler investment-grade issuance, on top of fiscal supply and inflation questions, will keep pressuring long-end government bond yields higher in the US and other developed markets.
And that's going to, I think, continue to put pressure on the long end of, you know, the government interest rate curves
Bill Campbell (DoubleLine) tells Bloomberg credit spreads are at historic tights across markets, so his firm stays up in quality and finds only idiosyncratic pockets of value.
credit spreads are at pretty much historic tights no matter where you look in the markets.
Bill Campbell (DoubleLine) tells Bloomberg that non-dollar and commodity-linked fixed income offers value over the coming years because the AI investment and debt boom will lift commodity demand.
the non-dollar and commodity spaces, you know, offer potential value over the coming years.
Gold since this was said: ▲ +1.3% · 4,409 → 4,468 · as of 2026-09-08
NeutralThe Fed
leaning · 2026-08-12
Bill Campbell (DoubleLine) tells Bloomberg a September Fed hike is roughly a coin flip and that market pricing fairly reflects the inflation risk rather than underestimating it.
you know, the hike is pretty much a coin flip for September. So I think the market is relatively cautious about that.
Bill Campbell (DoubleLine) tells Bloomberg the Fed's reaction function, possibly including its primary inflation target measure, may change in 2027 depending on what Chair Warsh's five task forces recommend.
And there is a potential that the reaction function itself may change in 2027 depending on the outcome of what these task forces find
Bill Campbell (DoubleLine) tells Bloomberg that Treasury Secretary Bessent joined the yen intervention and expanded the Fed's foreign repo facility because he is worried Japanese selling could spill into the US Treasury market.
Treasury Besant, I think tipped his hand that he is concerned that there could be passed through to the U.S. Treasury market.
Bill Campbell (DoubleLine) tells Bloomberg the joint yen intervention only addresses the symptom, since the yen's slide and rising JGB yields stem from loose Japanese fiscal policy and a negative real policy rate that remain unaddressed.
But I really think this intervention is, you know, in a way, it's only addressing the symptom, not the underlying problem.
Bill Campbell (DoubleLine) tells Bloomberg that Japan's negative real policy rate combined with loose fiscal policy at roughly 200% debt-to-GDP is a bad cocktail that keeps the yen weak and JGB yields rising.
the real policy rate in Japan is negative. And both of those are, you know, a bad cocktail when you're running a debt to GDP
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