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Richard Clarida
PIMCO (global economic adviser; former Fed vice chair 2018-2022)
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Asked where he would put his dot with Logan and Hammack circling a hike: 'I'd be in the group that's wait and see. I would certainly respect the case to consider a rate hike' @27:31. He details the March-to-June SEP inflection (12 cut dots to 9 hike dots, Fed now sees inflation ending 2026 at 3.3%) and says the committee's center of gravity is Williams' marker: hold if H2 inflation downshifts below roughly 0.2% a month, hike if it does not. He also notes oil futures traders see no lasting move into triple digits, just elevated risk premia @25:58.
“But if I were on the committee I would be in the camp that would be for certainly 2026 in wait and see mode to see how not only the Middle East conflict plays out”
He frames the AI buildout as inflationary first, disinflationary later: 'right now what we're seeing is the demand side of the AI build out which is the data centers and camp acts and that's putting some upper pressure on prices' @32:14 (whisper garbles capex as 'camp acts'). Warns the risk in Chair Walsh's disinflation bet is that the productivity payoff 'takes a while' while inflation sits above target for a sixth year @33:06.
“over time PIMCO expects the productivity benefits to kick in perhaps sooner than people expect and also the disinflationary impacts of AI kicking in perhaps more and more larger than people expect”
Answering whether AI capex plus structural fiscal deficits argue for a higher neutral rate: 'The question is, is neutral around three percent, which is what many on the Fed think, or is neutral around four percent, which is what some members of the committee think' @35:40; he calls this a big part of Chair Walsh's 'family argument' inside the Fed.
“When I was at the Fed we got the federal funds rate all the way up to two and a half percent and more or less concluded that was neutral at that point, neutral is surely higher right now.”
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