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Michael Oliver
Momentum Structural Analysis
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Where they stand
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Michael Oliver tells Kitco Fed policy is essentially irrelevant to the major trends in gold and silver.
I think Fed policy is essentially irrelevant to the major trends in the monetary metals.
Gold since this was said: ▲ +2.3% · 4,337 → 4,435 · as of 2026-09-10
Michael Oliver tells Kitco the price drop has not damaged the long-term momentum uptrend in silver or gold, only intermediate structures.
And the price drop we've seen has not in the least bit damaged the long-term momentum trend of silver or gold.
Gold since this was said: ▲ +2.3% · 4,337 → 4,435 · as of 2026-09-10
Michael Oliver tells Kitco if silver trades up into the 72-74 zone next week, shorts had better cover because the six-month bear attempt has failed.
If next week you see it up into 62 to, excuse me, 72 to 74 zone, and you're short, you better cover, okay.
Gold since this was said: ▲ +2.3% · 4,337 → 4,435 · as of 2026-09-10
Michael Oliver tells Kitco a gold bull market matching the two prior eight-fold advances would put gold around $8,500.
Eight-fold, we put gold like $8,500, and then you will at least be able to say, oh, gold just had a bull market that matched the two prior ones.
Gold since this was said: ▲ +2.3% · 4,337 → 4,435 · as of 2026-09-10
Michael Oliver tells Kitco long-dated Treasuries will punch through their yield highs and price lows, forcing the Fed to respond.
We're gonna punch through the yield highs. We're gonna go through the price lows.
Michael Oliver tells Kitco the Fed will have to buy long-end Treasuries and print, as Japan does, to defend the government bond market.
but that long end of the bond market, which has not been under their control generally ever, they're gonna have to do what the Japanese are doing.
Michael Oliver tells Kitco the S&P 500 has been in a topping process for more than a year.
Our technical work says that the stock market has been in a topping process for a year, more than a year.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +3.4% · 7,384 → 7,636 · as of 2026-09-09
Michael Oliver tells Kitco Bitcoin, already down more than 50% from his short signal, is going to 30,000.
That's more than a 50% drop. I think we're going to 30,000. But the S&P has the same structure waiting below it now.
Bitcoin since this was said: ▲ +22.7% · 63,811 → 78,318 · as of 2026-09-10
Michael Oliver tells Kitco the S&P 500 will not break its momentum floor this quarter but will position to break it next quarter (Q3 2026).
However, we don't think it's gonna get there and break that structure this quarter. We think it's gonna position itself to break it next quarter.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +3.4% · 7,384 → 7,636 · as of 2026-09-09
Michael Oliver tells Kitco the S&P 500's downside trigger levels beginning next quarter are just below 7,000, around 6,800.
And the trigger levels beginning next quarter are likely to be somewhere not far below 7,000, like 6,800.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +3.4% · 7,384 → 7,636 · as of 2026-09-09
Michael Oliver tells Kitco the bank index is barely above 2022 levels and the financial sector broadly looks very weak, signalling credit problems.
It's 5% higher in the bank index than it was in 2022. 5%, wow, big deal, okay? Something's wrong, okay? And the financial sector broadly looks very weak.
Michael Oliver tells Kitco Nvidia already looks weak and is breaking key momentum numbers, so it could be a negative force on the market.
Nvidia's already looking weak to us. We're breaking certain key numbers right now on it that indicate it could provide a negative force.
Nvidia since this was said: ▲ +10.1% · 205.1 → 225.7 · as of 2026-09-08
Michael Oliver tells Kitco gold will be the prime beneficiary when the government bond market breaks and the Fed prints.
And again, I think the prime beneficiary will be gold because I know what the Fed's gonna do when the government bond market goes lower
Gold since this was said: ▲ +2.3% · 4,337 → 4,435 · as of 2026-09-10
Michael Oliver tells Kitco silver will vastly outpace gold, and the gold miners, over the next handful of months.
And I think that will be ongoing, especially for the next handful of months, where silver will vastly outpace gold.
Gold since this was said: ▲ +2.3% · 4,337 → 4,435 · as of 2026-09-10
Michael Oliver tells Kitco silver's new price reality is $300-500 and the final three months of the move will be very dramatic.
And I still think that reality is three to $500. And the move to get there will be very dramatic in the final three months of that move.
Gold since this was said: ▲ +2.3% · 4,337 → 4,435 · as of 2026-09-10
Michael Oliver tells Kitco silver is highly likely coming out of its six-month congestion and he doubts it will see the $50-55 levels everybody expects.
Highly likely we're coming out of here. So I'm doubtful you'll see those levels that everybody expects.
Gold since this was said: ▲ +2.3% · 4,337 → 4,435 · as of 2026-09-10
Michael Oliver tells Kitco if gold miners break out versus gold on a spread basis, which he expects, they are likely to double or triple in value relative to an ounce of gold.
If you break those miners out versus gold on a spread basis, they're likely to double or triple in relative value to an ounce of gold.
Gold since this was said: ▲ +2.3% · 4,337 → 4,435 · as of 2026-09-10
Michael Oliver tells Kitco silver miners will do better than gold miners.
And if I threw the dart, I'd throw it at the silver miners. I think they're gonna do better than the gold miners.
Gold since this was said: ▲ +2.3% · 4,337 → 4,435 · as of 2026-09-10
Michael Oliver tells Kitco the other side of the silver and gold explosion will be their legalization as currency in various countries.
I think what's gonna be on the other side of that silver explosion and gold explosion is legalization of them as currency.
Gold since this was said: ▲ +2.3% · 4,337 → 4,435 · as of 2026-09-10
Michael Oliver tells Kitco about 95% of his positions are unleveraged silver bullion ETFs and silver miners, roughly 50/50.
about 95% of my positions are silver bullion, unleveraged, usually through ETFs for bullion, and silver miners, about 50/50 on those two.
Gold since this was said: ▲ +2.3% · 4,337 → 4,435 · as of 2026-09-10
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