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Thierry Wizman (Macquarie) tells the Bloomberg anchor unemployment fell to 4.1%, below the Fed's own 4.3% projection, so the labor market is tighter than the Fed expected.
We went from four point two percent to four point one percent. It's important to keep in mind that that four point one percent is below where the Federal Reserve itself in its summary of economic projections believed that the unemployment would be at this time of the year.
Thierry Wizman tells the Bloomberg anchor the negative July payrolls print was not a dovish report once you look at the unemployment rate.
So from that perspective it wasn't a very dovish report.
NeutralThe Fed
leaning · 2026-08-10
Thierry Wizman tells the Bloomberg anchor the Fed's next move is still a hike, not in September; his pre-payrolls call was October, and he now allows October may slip to December.
Now will it be September. I don't think so. I had said before the report that it was likely to be October but that was because we had to wait until the October meeting to see the revisions in the personal consumption expenditure price index.
NeutralThe Fed
leaning · 2026-08-10
Thierry Wizman tells the Bloomberg anchor that with three of four key inflation gauges above 3% y/y, only a dramatic drop in inflation would change the Fed's hiking bias.
So so it would have to be a dramatic reduction in in year over year inflation for this to really change the zeitgeist at the Fed
Thierry Wizman tells the Bloomberg anchor deficit perceptions and heavy issuance, plus growth and structural inflation, keep long-end Treasury yields high.
So I do believe that at least perceptions about the deficit play a role
Thierry Wizman tells the Bloomberg anchor the dollar stays robust near term if oil stays high and pushes the Fed to hike.
if oil prices stay high and it compels the Fed to raise rates because it's certainly part of the picture for them. I think the dollar will be let's call it robust steady.
Thierry Wizman tells the Bloomberg anchor that next year, if oil falls and elections pass, the dollar falls out of favor and the diversification trade returns.
Looking into next year though if oil prices finally fall we get we get on the other side of these French elections and the dollar falls out of favor
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