Kamakshya Trivedi

…strengthen from really some very weak levels. It is one of the most undervalued currencies in our metrics. I think it's quite the contrast between the strength in the equity markets and the weakness of the one. I think it's not dissimilar to some extent to what is happening with the yen. I think the one has been trading more and more like the yen over the years and I think that that feature of it is probably not going away anytime soon. But in the short term I think some of these flows should be more supportive for the one and it has been trading on a better footing over the last couple of weeks already. 1.62 dollar yen this morning. 1.65 coming. How quickly do we get from A to B. Our forecast is that it's going to take a while to get there. We have it in you know about 12 months 1.65. So you know there is there's some time and I think part of that is if it was just up to the macro influences it was just up to you know freely what is going on the impulses in global markets. I think you'd get there quicker. We do have to take into account that periodically you're going to see pushback from the Japanese policy authorities you're going to see interventions. What does that do. In my view what it does is it resets the level every time they do the intervention. It kind of dampens volatility but it doesn't change the broader trends. You get there as if the macro conditions persist if we have no recession risk if the Japanese policy authorities are not super hawkish. But I think it's going to take a while.…From: this video · 4 claims mined from it

…these things though are not a discussion for today. They're not even a discussion for a month from now. I think it's going to take some time which is why I think the yen is going to be weaker. And come actually on that interest rate differential we talked about well the BOJ clearly has a role to play. That's the yen side of things. But what about the dollar side of things. I mean how do you we were just discussing before you came on how much hawkishness is actually yes we got quite a lot from wash a couple of weeks ago less last week more doveish the jobs report a little weaker. And where does that leave us in terms of expectations about interest rate hikes because that also is key for that interest rate differential with the yen . Absolutely. And I think you know the minutes this week will be interesting to see whether there is any more color around that. You know our expectation is that you know most likely they're going to hold rather you know for a while you know at least for the remainder of the year rather than sort of you know jump into those hikes. I think the you know there will be some premium in the curve but I just don't think that the kind of energy price moves we are seeing the kind of broader inflation dynamics are going to you know push them into a kind of very aggressive aggressive hiking cycle. So I think that from that from that standpoint I don't necessarily see a very immediate pickup but I would also set that against the macro outlook. We just took down our recession probability odds over the next 12 months back to kind of the you know long term norm over the past week. So things have moved in a better way…From: this video · 4 claims mined from it

…interest rate differential with the yen . Absolutely. And I think you know the minutes this week will be interesting to see whether there is any more color around that. You know our expectation is that you know most likely they're going to hold rather you know for a while you know at least for the remainder of the year rather than sort of you know jump into those hikes. I think the you know there will be some premium in the curve but I just don't think that the kind of energy price moves we are seeing the kind of broader inflation dynamics are going to you know push them into a kind of very aggressive aggressive hiking cycle. So I think that from that from that standpoint I don't necessarily see a very immediate pickup but I would also set that against the macro outlook. We just took down our recession probability odds over the next 12 months back to kind of the you know long term norm over the past week. So things have moved in a better way in that sense and that I think is going to keep that rate differential somewhat wide. OK. And what do you expect the overall impact of these task forces to be. I mean too early to judge I'm sure is the answer. But do we have any clues yet. I know you were at the Bank of England with when Mervyn King was there and he is one name that we know is going to be attached to one of these task forces. I mean I would make two observations. First I think the main impact is that it buys chair chairman wash time. Right. I think that is I think the key aim for these. I think it gives you some time. You know these things will probably report by the end of the…From: this video · 4 claims mined from it