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JB
Jim Bullard
former president, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
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NeutralThe Fed
leaning · 2026-09-06
Jim Bullard (ex-St. Louis Fed) tells Kitco the FOMC is split about 10-9 on hike vs hold at the September meeting, with fence-sitters persuadable either way.
I think the committee is split pretty much down the middle, so 10 to 9 or one way or the other.
Bullard says some foreign central banks have been diversifying reserves away from Treasuries toward gold.
There certainly have been banks that have been diversifying away from treasuries.
Gold since this was said: ▲ +0.9% · 4,430 → 4,468 · as of 2026-09-08
Bullard says gold acts as an indicator of eroding faith in the Fed: gold runs up when Fed credibility is questioned.
gold still is an indicator of maybe lack of faith in the Fed. So normally you'll get gold running up if that credibility is being eroded.
Gold since this was said: ▲ +0.9% · 4,430 → 4,468 · as of 2026-09-08
Bullard says 20-30 aggregated labor indicators show the US labor market in equilibrium near the natural rate; a soft payroll print reflects immigration policy, not something breaking.
it will tell you that the labor market is basically in equilibrium. It's very close to the unemployment rates, very close to the natural rate of unemployment. So everything is healthy about the labor market.
Bullard says the long end is pricing a US debt path to 120-150% of GDP and investors are starting to demand a fiscal risk premium (higher long yields).
And the path is to head to 120 percent of debt held by the public or 150 percent of debt held by the public. And the market has to price whether they're going to demand a risk premium for that. I think that they are
Bullard says the Fed should be willing to run somewhat more restrictive policy now, even if it worsens the Treasury's interest bill, to avoid a crisis later.
maybe maybe if we did a little bit more restrictive monetary policy today, then we wouldn't have to do as much later and we'd avoid getting into a crisis later on
Bullard says Treasury stepping into the long end is a tactical move that can cause daily fluctuation but will not change the long-run trend, which prices fundamental policy.
But I don't think you disrupt the long run trend by changing tactics.
Bullard says the US should mark its gold reserves to market rather than carry them at the $42 statutory price.
So it's always pretty much always better to mark to market and not have the book value misrepresenting what's really going on.
Gold since this was said: ▲ +0.9% · 4,430 → 4,468 · as of 2026-09-08
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