3 of 5 correct
3 correct, 2 missed; 3 too vague to score; 9 still on the clock. Quotes in curly quotation marks are verbatim; everything else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.
Scored calls
Correct
“It feels like the SEC is setting a deadline for itself” - affirming spot-Bitcoin-ETF approval “on or around, let's say, January 10th”
Correct
Bitcoin ETF approval will be a short-term 'sell the news' event
Correct
If the SEC approves any spot Bitcoin ETF, it will approve more than one at once
Missed
Tesla robotaxi service launch, 'with late 2024 as the weighted average of all cases' (ARK model assumption)
Missed
'A lot more deflation going forward'; would not be surprised to see CPI going negative at some point in 2024
Too vague
Deflation will prompt the Fed to cut rates aggressively in 2024
Too vague
AI training performance +5x in 2024; training costs to fall ~75%/yr through 2030
Too vague
Bitcoin to $500,000, premised on institutions allocating ~5% of portfolios (affirmed mid-crash)
On the clock
Written down and dated. Not judged until the deadline arrives.
Tesla to $2,000 per share in 2027 (expected value; bear ~$1,400, bull ~$2,500)
Tesla to $2,600 per share in 2029 (bear ~$2,000, bull ~$3,100); ~90% of value from robotaxi
Bitcoin to $1.48M by 2030 (bull case); $682,800 base; $258,500 bear (ARK Big Ideas 2023)
Bitcoin could reach $3.8M by 2030 IF institutions allocate >5% of portfolios
Bitcoin base case $600K by 2030, bull case $1.5M - ETF approval makes bull case 'more likely'
Disruptive innovation platforms to scale from $13T to $200T market value by 2030
Global EV sales to scale ~33%/yr from ~10M (2023) to ~74M units in 2030
SpaceX base-case valuation of $2.5 trillion by 2030; bull case $3.1 trillion. Both imply SPCX trading above the $135 IPO price.
“I also think this is feeding into our GDP growth scenario. I think growth is picking up generally and technology is leading the charge. So it supports our forecast of 7 to 8% real GDP growth in the next five years.”
Where they stand
Views on the record but not scoreable bets: no single number and deadline to grade. Shown in their exact words, never scored.
Bear
June jobs: household employment “down roughly 500,000”, payrolls “up maybe 57,000, roughly half of what economists expected”; “companies are not hiring as rapidly as they once did, and they are relying more on AI”
Bull
“Productivity is about 2.9% on a year-over-year basis right now. We think it's going to accelerate into the 5% to 6% range”
Dove
Fed cuts faster than the market expects (only ~1 cut priced)
Dove
Inflation surprises much lower; Truflation ~1.3% vs CPI 2.8%
The Sunday Standings
One email a week: who got scored, what resolves next, where the records moved. Free.
Before you trust the call, check the record.
Every line on this site is backed by a dated, sourced entry in our records. We write down what public figures predict, then check when reality answers. How we score · Corrections
Pundit Rumble · punditrumble.com · built 2026-07-09 from the records · never hand-edited · not investment advice.
Every line on this site is backed by a dated, sourced entry in our records. We write down what public figures predict, then check when reality answers. How we score · Corrections
Pundit Rumble · punditrumble.com · built 2026-07-09 from the records · never hand-edited · not investment advice.