Cathie Wood

…below, well below. In fact, less than half the 4.2% CPI metric. And on the next chart, you can see the core inflation as measured by true flation is down in the low 1% range. Again, maybe this is what long-term treasury yields are looking at, or at least one of the signals are looking at, and why the yield curve is flattening out again. So on the next slide, you can see, we 'll get into employment. This employment number was crazy. So household employment was down roughly 500,000. Warm payroll employment was up maybe 57 ,000, roughly half of what economists expected. So on that score, it was a very weak report. You can see on this chart, rarely does this measure of employment decline in the absence of a recession, which you can see in the shaded areas. So what might be going on here is that companies are not hiring as rapidly as they once did, and they are relying more on AI, and…From: this video · 4 claims mined from it

…going to crosscheck the government data against private data and probably introduce more private data sources into the Fed's own research. The fourth is productivity and jobs during this transformation, as he calls it, acknowledging that we are in a technology revolution and that productivity probably is accelerating and that government statistics are not picking this up correctly. So productivity is about 2.9% on a year -over-year basis right now. We think it's going to accelerate into the 5% to 6% range. This year is going to be a little confusing because productivity a year ago was negative in the first quarter. So that 2.9% is against a negative, but then there are two very big comparisons . The rapid growth in productivity last year was pretty astonishing, I think, as many people were delaying hiring and using more AI. And that should be even more the case, but there are going to be tough comparisons, so I just wanted to cite that as we…From: this video · 4 claims mined from it

…pricing that the Fed might be too tight. So stay tuned for that. We're on guard. So next chart. Here is the oil price on a year-over- year basis. It's based on a three-month moving average. And so you can see right now on that basis, we're into the 50s on a year- over-year basis. But look at the X. The X shows you where we are on a year-over-year basis, point to point, this time last year versus today. And most of that inflation is out, and as Hormuz opens up more and more, we think the oil price could drop precipitously, especially as transportation is going electric. And it's not just robo-taxis, it's trucks, it's drones. So at the margin, we think the case for oil is diminishing, meaning the bull case for oil is diminishing quite significantly. And we would not be surprised to see a general deflationary world for oil in the next few years. So on this chart, you can see the commodity price index.…From: this video · 4 claims mined from it

…War but it's rebounding nicely and on the next page an even stronger measure of true wealth, S&P relative to gold again fell apart during the 70s was threatening to do so here again. It did break below a range which made us a little uncomfortable although crude oil was not or S&P to crude oil was not valid ating it nonetheless we're happy to see it's on its way up again and we think it has far to go in this technology revolution . Here's Bitcoin to gold, gold is going down, Bitcoin had been going down, it seems to be in a bottoming process. We believe that it has bottomed on this basis and will resume the very volatile but broad uptrend that you see on this chart and then just two more charts. Are the credit markets telling us, warning us about anything? No. All is quiet. Even with the private credit outflows I saw the Blue Owl again had to gate its…From: this video · 4 claims mined from it