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Aditya Bhave
BofA Securities
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Where they stand
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Aditya Bhave (BofA Securities) tells CNBC the Fed should take back its 75bp of cuts because unemployment is lower and inflation higher than a year ago while financial conditions are not tight.
the policy rate is 75 basis points lower than it was. So, that doesn't make sense to us. We think they need to take back those 75 basis points of cuts.
Aditya Bhave (BofA Securities) tells CNBC that with the 30-year at 5.25% and 10-year at 4.70%, failing to hike now risks the long end becoming unanchored if data turn hawkish early next year.
the 30 years already at 525, the 10 years at 470. If they don't hike now and the data turn hawkish again early next year, they're facing a very serious risk that the long end could get unencored
Aditya Bhave (BofA Securities) tells CNBC the jobs number was not a disaster: with breakeven job growth near zero, a ~50k/month full-year average is fine and unemployment is falling.
still growing around 50,000 jobs per month, which I think is absolutely fine. And the unemployment rate's falling.
Aditya Bhave (BofA Securities) tells CNBC BofA forecasts Fed hikes at the September, October and December 2026 meetings, while admitting soft inflation data could push the start to December.
We have them happening in September, October, and December.
Aditya Bhave (BofA Securities) tells CNBC the Fed will not begin hiking at the October 2026 meeting, six days before the midterms; the first hike comes in September or December.
If they've already started, they might continue in October, but I don't think they would insert themselves into the conversation six days before the midterms.
NeutralTariffs
leaning · 2026-08-12
Aditya Bhave (BofA Securities) tells CNBC the 12-month tariff impact on inflation is already lower than a year ago, so tariff roll-off will not solve the core inflation problem.
month impact of tariffs is probably a little bit lower than it was at this time last year. So, tariffs are already rolling off.
Aditya Bhave (BofA Securities) tells CNBC that of 3.3% core PCE, ~40bp is tariffs, ~20bp Iran/oil, and ~20bp will be revised away in September, leaving ~2.5% even in the best case.
3.3 percent core PC inflation as of June. We think about 40 basis points. If that was tariffs, 20 basis points was Iran, and about 20 basis points will get revised away in September.
Aditya Bhave (BofA Securities) tells CNBC that even if everything goes right core PCE is still 2.5%, a big overshoot with the labor market in equilibrium, so policy should be restrictive.
but if everything goes right, you're still at 2.5. That's a pretty big overshoot when the labor market is looking basically in equilibrium
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