← Leaderboard
First call on the ledger
No calls filed yet. Quotes in curly quotation marks are verbatim; everything
else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.
Where they stand
Views on the record but not scoreable bets: no single number and deadline to grade. Shown in their exact words, never scored.
Trinh Nguyen (Natixis) tells Bloomberg she expects the Fed to hold at the next meeting and for the rest of 2026 into 2027, so priced-in hikes get priced out.
And we think that the Fed is probably going to hold for the rest of 2026 and into 2027.
Trinh Nguyen (Natixis) tells Bloomberg the yen, very undervalued on a real effective basis, is primed to readjust and could rise against the dollar if Japanese rates rise faster.
And we think that the yen is prime for some readjustment of this global imbalance.
Trinh Nguyen (Natixis) tells Bloomberg that Chinese onshore corporate earnings are very weak, creating heavy capital-outflow pressure even as the trade surplus needs to be recycled onshore.
the overall picture is that earnings are very weak onshore. And that means there's a lot of pressure for capital outflows.
Trinh Nguyen (Natixis) tells Bloomberg the yen has more room to appreciate than the yuan because Beijing will keep yuan appreciation against the dollar very marginal to protect exporters.
we think, on a yen basis, there's more room for appreciation versus the yuan
Trinh Nguyen (Natixis) tells Bloomberg that markets underprice sustained geopolitical pressure on supply chains, a decade-long cost theme that will keep term premium elevated even as near-term inflation looks contained.
And I think what the market is not pricing for is the sustained geopolitical pressure that's going to continue to put pressure on supply chains.
Follow Trinh Nguyen
One short email when Trinh puts a new call on the record, and when a verdict lands on one. Plain words, free.