Jan Hatzius

…So I would view this as a bit more normalization. And we calculate an underlying job growth trend, which is based on the moving average of payrolls and also some weight on the household survey. That was running 130 as of the last report. It's now running at 74K. Right. So it does feed your general view that we'll get rate cuts before hikes. Yes, although I don't think you're going to get either of those anytime soon. So in the near term, the question is between, you know, stay on hold or hike . Obviously, there are nine participants in the FOMC who said they would want to hike potentially before the end of the year. So that's the debate. I think among the voting members, there's probably still a majority for staying on hold, though. What do you make of the participation rate and how much of that do you attribute to immigration? It's been yeah, it's been a little bit of a head scratcher, in particular in this in this number, the participation rate plunge among 25 to 34 year olds. I mean, there's not a lot of precedent for these kinds of moves month to month . The household service is always noisy, but this is very, very large. I wonder whether there's some, you know , major special factor there that maybe we haven't, you know, we haven't really found yet. But it is, you know, an aspect of the…From: this video · 2 claims mined from it

…thought would boost this number. World Cup hiring was one. We didn't see it in those numbers. And then some seasonal stuff and more teacher hiring. We also didn't see that . So the payroll number came in quite a bit weaker. You know, with that said, the payroll numbers have been extremely strong, really stronger than was plausible relative to other indicators. So I would view this as a bit more normalization. And we calculate an underlying job growth trend, which is based on the moving average of payrolls and also some weight on the household survey. That was running 130 as of the last report. It's now running at 74K. Right. So it does feed your general view that we'll get rate cuts before hikes. Yes, although I don't think you're going to get either of those anytime soon. So in the near term, the question is between, you know, stay on hold or hike . Obviously, there are nine participants in the FOMC who said they would want to hike potentially before the end of the year. So that's the debate. I think among the voting members, there's probably still a majority for staying on hold, though. What do you make of the participation rate and how much of that do you attribute to immigration? It's been yeah, it's been a little bit of a head scratcher, in particular in this in this number, the participation…From: this video · 2 claims mined from it