← Leaderboard
First call on the ledger
No calls filed yet. Quotes in curly quotation marks are verbatim; everything
else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.
Where they stand
Views on the record but not scoreable bets: no single number and deadline to grade. Shown in their exact words, never scored.
Jan Hatzius (Goldman Sachs) tells Fox Business he expects July CPI, out the next morning (2026-08-13), to print +0.05% headline and +0.19% core month-on-month, in line with or slightly below consensus.
So we think 0.05% on the headline, 0.19 on the core index, both of which are in line with or a little bit lower than the consensus.
Jan Hatzius (Goldman Sachs) tells Fox Business that of core PCE's 3.3%, about 0.7 points is tariff pass-through that will trend toward zero over the next six to 12 months.
That's running at 3.3%, but about 0.7 of that is tariff pass-through. And as we go through the next six to 12 months, we think that trends towards zero.
NeutralThe Fed
leaning · 2026-08-12
Jan Hatzius (Goldman Sachs) tells Fox Business he expects core PCE to remain the Fed's primary inflation gauge into 2027 and beyond, despite Chair Warsh leaving the question open.
But my expectation would be that even as we go into 2027 and beyond, PCE is still what they're most focused on.
Jan Hatzius (Goldman Sachs) tells Fox Business that 2% is the right inflation target, though being a few tenths off, as in the 1.6-1.7% pre-pandemic years, is not a real problem.
No, I think 2% is the right number. I think it's important to say 2% rather than 2.0% because that gives a false sense of precision.
Jan Hatzius (Goldman Sachs) tells Fox Business that Goldman's forecast has no Fed rate hike in the remainder of 2026, though a hike is possible.
There could be a hike, but in our forecast, we don't have a hike in the remainder of the year.
Jan Hatzius (Goldman Sachs) tells Fox Business that the roughly 70,000 one-month drop in Goldman's estimate of underlying US job creation is a pretty sharp slowdown.
A drop by almost 70,000 from one month to the next is quite a lot. It's a pretty sharp slowdown
Jan Hatzius (Goldman Sachs) tells Fox Business the US economy is doing pretty well, with GDP growing 2% to maybe 2.5%, his expectation for the next year or two.
I think it's doing pretty well. The GDP is growing at a 2% to maybe 2.5
Jan Hatzius (Goldman Sachs) tells Fox Business that excessive inflation remains the problem but he expects it to look somewhat better going into 2027, with 'pretty solid' confidence in the downtrend.
That problem is still there, but my expectation would be that as we go into 2027, it's going to look somewhat better.
Handicapping the July FOMC vote:
“I think among the voting members, there's probably still a majority for staying on hold, though.”
Cuts before hikes, “although I don't think you're going to get either of those anytime soon”
Follow Jan Hatzius
One short email when Jan puts a new call on the record, and when a verdict lands on one. Plain words, free.