Chance Finucane

Speaking of the ~12-15 high-quality semiconductor names Oxbow follows; 'we think by and large they're overvalued' @5:57 applies to the near-half of S&P market cap viewed as AI beneficiaries. This is the title's '40% downside' warning; Oxbow requires projected downside of 20% or less to buy, so they own none.

Framed as a structural regime call driven by higher, more volatile inflation and geopolitics in the 2020s; 'on average uh when you're looking out five years that's not a great place to be' @12:09, and later 'it could be multiple decades that uh long-term bonds are just not a very good place to be outside of a short-term trade' @29:48. Oxbow keeps fixed income at maturities of about three years or less. Teaser duplicate at 0:22.

His mechanism: 'when you cycle against that next year it's going to look like growth is really decelerating inflation's coming down that's not a great environment for for risky assets' @31:43, i.e. base effects off the high-growth, high-inflation first half of 2026. He simultaneously concedes AI names 'would not surprise us if the enthusiasm and greed around this trend continues and they move higher later into the year' @31:21. Teaser duplicate at 0:00; this is the title's 'deeper correction' call. Market held 'fully valued' with Oxbow at 60% stocks / 40% short-term Treasuries @1:53.

He cites gold's peak 'at about uh fifty five hundred dollars an ounce' and silver at 'one sixteen an ounce' @3:40, with 'silver falling back to about sixty dollars an ounce or basically cutting in half is where we would get more interested again' @3:54. They are acting on it: 'now we've been building it back up towards about that average 10 percent' of the high-income strategy @4:53, and 'the energy and precious metal space uh look pretty attractive' @28:24.

Asked if he is more or less bullish on oil stocks at $80 than at pre-war $60: 'probably about the same' - 'we think the the stocks are still about as attractive as they were back in january' @16:13. Also 'we are still optimistic on oil prices and holding energy positions for the long term' @15:20; Oxbow re-allocated to energy as oil fell below $70 after the Iran-war spike above $110-120 Brent, and has been adding oil-services names.

Referring to the big private names heading to market: 'if they're trading at 20 to 70 times revenue uh when by comparison google went public at eight and a half times revenue' @22:20. Oxbow skipped the SpaceX IPO, which he says is already 'down 16 from where it closed uh after the first day of trading' @7:29; his table shows hot IPOs usually get cheaper within a year.