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Stephanie Guild (Robinhood) tells Guy Johnson the Situational Awareness blow-up was a leverage clearing event and, as after LTCM in 1998, US equities can move higher from here.
everyone exits the same door. And that's a clearing event. And I do think we're in that situation.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▼ -2.5% · 7,786 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
Stephanie Guild (Robinhood) tells Guy Johnson she agrees markets can rip higher: lingering skepticism and a lower S&P multiple leave room for the rally to continue.
Yeah I mean I agree with that. I still think there's a skepticism in the market and you can kind of see it when you look at like valuations.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▼ -2.5% · 7,786 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
Stephanie Guild (Robinhood) tells Guy Johnson that 2026 S&P earnings-growth expectations have doubled while the index multiple has dropped two turns, with 2027 estimates unchanged.
You know you've seen earnings growth expectations double for 2026. And I know we look a little further than that and 2027 hasn't really moved. But you've also seen with the doubling of earnings growth expectations valuations have actually dropped two turns for the S&P anyway.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▼ -2.5% · 7,786 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
BearishThe Fed
leaning · 2026-08-14
Stephanie Guild (Robinhood) tells Guy Johnson the competition for capital (government, AI companies, tech firms acting as banks) plus good growth is pushing Treasury yields higher, with a 10-year above 5% the big risk.
I do think I mean that's why Treasury yields are going higher. I think. And even though we have good growth right like generally across the upper end of the economy. And so that's going to support higher rates.
Stephanie Guild (Robinhood) tells Guy Johnson the private-credit buildup risk flagged earlier in the year has not gone away.
a lot of private credit build up which I know was a risk kind of earlier this year that people were talking about. And I don't think that's gone away.
Stephanie Guild (Robinhood) tells Guy Johnson to expect parabolic moves followed by fast crashes that act as clearing events, so everyday investors must get used to higher volatility.
you could have these you know kind of parabolic moves in the market and then speed crashes and that becomes a clearing event and things move on. So I definitely think players in the market especially the everyday investor has to be more used to higher volatility.
VIX since this was said: ▲ +19.9% · 14.25 → 17.08 · as of 2026-09-11
Asked where a summer surprise could come from. She cites drawn-down global reserves and a coming rebuild cycle; earlier: 'oil prices are still high and I actually think we'll go higher' @1:28, and 'we have an allocation to energy in our portfolios as a hedge' @22:14.
“I think the thing that I struggle with is that like it seems to be hiding in plain sight Which is the fact that I think it's a rational Thing that oil could get to 150 160”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +10.7% · 90.03 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Opening market take: 'I don't think there's anything fundamentally broken in the market' @1:17, though rates are higher, Middle East conflict continues and oil is high. She expects 'periods of consolidation before you can continue to ramp from here' @2:19 because physical buildout lags the agentic world.
“So you do have headwinds, but I I still think the fundamental story of a I and The margin expansion that we can eventually get from it productivity gains that we can get from it are true”
Nasdaq since this was said: ▲ +3.6% · 25,170 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
Asked whether Mag 7 stocks should be the source of funds for buying SpaceX/OpenAI/Anthropic IPOs. She adds 'Index investing itself is a little bit backward-looking' @18:19 and calls Mag 7 'a natural place to make room' @18:34. Separately she worries about equity supply: hyperscalers shifting from buybacks to issuance 'the market hasn't been trained on that' @17:43 (sic 5:43).
“My personal take is that they should be I think these are companies that you know They're they're large, but they're not necessarily where the future is”
Asked how a Fed chair Kevin Warsh would respond to $150-160 oil. She invokes Arthur Burns in the 1970s who 'actively did nothing' on supply-side inflation @25:04 and notes 'the Fed is better at controlling demand side inflation not supply side inflation' @25:10.
“definitely don't want to raise rates I think they want to try not to but they might have to”
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