← Leaderboard
NS
Nicky Shiels
MKS PAMP (head of research & metals strategy)
First call on the ledger
No calls filed yet. Quotes in curly quotation marks are verbatim; everything
else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.
Where they stand
Views on the record but not scoreable bets: no single number and deadline to grade. Shown in their exact words, never scored.
Says gold went through 'a one in a hundred year event in q1' and was overheated; oil has 'stolen a lot of that geopolitical premium from gold' (@82:15) and hawkish higher-for-longer Fed talk is a headwind. Cites China: to reach a 30% gold allocation it would have to repeat June's monthly purchases 'For 33 years' (@83:31) - 'this is secular' (de-dollarization, debasement, diversification).
“come back down. Um, we still believe the secular trade is there It's just simply taking a bit of a breather”
Host frames that 'The market is pricing in at least one hike this year' amid sticky inflation and hawkish language (@85:47) - so this is an out-of-consensus no-hike call. She adds the inflation narrative is 'very tricky for gold' and tariffs are a second-half uncertainty.
“We we don't think we'll get a hike this year. Um, Look, you can't have a us An extension of war sort of higher rates. You just can't you can't simply you simply can't afford that”
Conditional on a second-half US economic slowdown reviving the 'sell usa theme' and weakening the dollar (@86:30). Also flags decade-long mine underinvestment: critical metals 'sitting in deficits' (@84:59).
“Dollar traditionally silver's been better correlated to weaker u.s Dollars, I think silver can sort of outperform”
Follow Nicky Shiels
One short email when Nicky puts a new call on the record, and when a verdict lands on one. Plain words, free.