Today’s Tape.

…you that we've already seen peak inflation, which is really very, very positive. And again, that's positive for a lot of sectors, a lot of people, consumers, which is 70% of the economy, but it's also businesses and their input costs. So if inflation has peaked and it's coming down... I know it's not at the 2% where the Fed wants it to be, but it's coming down. We were running 2.5% in February pre- war. So if we get back down to that, that's really very manageable, and again, very positive. So I think that there's upside to earnings. In fact, I actually thought this year we would see 10% to 12% earnings growth . We just put up 26% last quarter, and we 're going to probably do 20% this year. I think we are in the early stages of the AI boom. A lot of sectors are benefiting, and at the same time, the consumers hanging in there because they have a job, and wages are actually still around 4%, 4.5%. So a lot is good out there.…From: this video · 2 claims mined from it

…Silicon Valley subsidizing those losses , maybe now just the taxpayers will. And maybe that's the plan. And maybe that's a good idea, because that's what the banks did in 2008. And it didn't work for some of them, but it worked out for most of them. And so you have to think, maybe they see this collapsing. And that's why they go to the government. But either way, both of these pieces of news in the same week, that's very, very bearish, in my view, and seems to indicate that this is a growing bubble that is nearing a point of maybe not collapse, but certainly massive course correction. OpenAI, I predicted this six months ago , that the biggest bailout in corporate history was about to happen, and it was gonna be the bailout of Nadella, Altman, Dario Amadei, and it would be dressed up as investment or growth. It's not, it's a bailout. If the government were to take a 5% stake in OpenAI, great, they're gonna favor OpenAI. They're going to over-regulate their competitors and under-regulate OpenAI. They're going to provide them with protection money and direct access to the White House. It's not even socialism, it's cronyism. It's like, when things are really good, we wanna capture all the gains ourselves, but when things are bad, we wanna socialize…From: this video · 6 claims mined from it

…. You weren't really impressed with June that much in terms of the averages kind of stalling out, and you expect July to be better as val uations are more reasonable and sentiment is not crazy bullish. Does that sum things up? Yeah. I mean, in July, we're going to get Q2 earnings. Right. And in the first quarter, earnings came in way better than expected. And so the market's PE is actually lower now than it was in January by one point, one full turn. And I think second quarter earnings are going to surprise to the upside again. So the market's going to get cheaper again. And that means there's room for PE to expand. So I think July is going to be a stronger month for stocks. 8,000 is doable this year. Yes. The S&P. Yeah. Because 8,000 would be roughly 20 times 2027 earnings of 400. I think that's a low estimate. I think the PE multiple could be 22 or better. So that would be even 84, 80, 800 kind of would be the upside into your end. But I do think between now and year end , there should be something that might feel like a bear market too. Not in July, but maybe between August and October. Why not in July? Well, I think Joe cited that June wasn…From: this video · 2 claims mined from it

…starting to percolate there, and interest from clients starting to percolate as well. At some point, we'll deal with 2027 earnings growth expectations. We're not there yet. We're still sorting through 2026, but that's something to keep on your radar as well. And it feels like interest rate fears have eased back a little bit, but that's something also to keep on our radar. I know there's just a whole range of outcomes predicted around the street right now, some people looking for cuts, some people looking for hikes. But we do keep that hike risk on the radar. But Tom, with the price target, we try to be longer term. We've recast it this year from a December 31st number to a 12-month forward number. We update it once a month. We did a little bit later last month, and we probably should have. But we had a number of events to get through. And so we upped our target a little bit to 81.50. Healthy, not heroic. We still think that the earnings strength, the earnings tailwind, is offsetting pressures on the PE from the trickier rates and inflation environment. So no real change. What is the AI theme in your work these days? I guess we all started our own AI investing by just buying the chips, which is still a way to go, no doubt. But is there other ways to play AI that you and your team are thinking about? So I think it started out as sort of a Mag 7 type story. And then we saw in the earnings data that the AI trade was really sort of broadening out this year. And then the semis were front and center. And we were kind of at peak revisions there on earnings. You've had expensive valuation.…From: this video · 1 claim mined from it

…prediction about oil. Listen to what he told us. The only thing that seems like truth is the price of crude itself. And look at it, $68 a barrel. It's only about, you know, $8 or $9 ahead of where it was before this conflict started. So to me, the market is saying this thing is 98% done and to the general's point, that last 2% could be consequential if something flares up again. So there still should be a bit of a risk premium in crude. However, I think in the middle of next year, crude's going to be at about 45 bucks a barrel. And I think we're already starting to see the reasons why. UAE has increased production. OPEC then increases production to keep their market share. What do you make of that, Kenny? Listen, I'm in the same campus, Jimmy, right? I think oil is going lower. I think, you know, we're going to see the low 60s fairly soon. 45 might be aggressive next year, but I got to kind of think about how that's all playing out. But I definitely think the path of least resistance is down and not up. And so I fully suspect that, you know, the country's going to benefit really because we're going to see oil prices, like I said, get out into the low 60s, which is where they were right prior to the invasion, right ? Where they go beyond that is going to depend on how much this production gets ramped up, how much UAE wants to join. Are they going to let Iran really start selling not much more oil? How much more supply is coming to the market? So, yes, I think Jimmy's right. I'm not sure it's 45, but I certainly think it's lower from here. Not to speak for Ryan Payne, but I do want to bring him into the conversation…From: this video · 3 claims mined from it

…with the launch of Claude Design. So this was a new vertical app that Anthropic launched to compete in the design category. And Figma's founder said that Anthropic had not been completely honest with them, Anthropic's chief product officer had actually even served on Figma's board and didn't resign until three days before the launch of Claude Design. So obviously Figma again felt blind sided by this. And you can see the resulting impact on their stock price. Figma's stock has fallen something like 50% this year while Anthropic's valuation has surged. This is not an isolated example. Anthropic has also launched Claude Science, Claude Security, Claude Legal, Claude Financial, and of course Claude Code, and every single one of these vertical apps expanded into categories that was previously served by companies building on top of Anthropic's own models. And really, if you want to go back to when Anthropic's revenue explosion began, it was with the launch of Claude Code. And how did they know to launch that product? Because they saw that cursor was doing extremely well. Cursor was one of their biggest customers. They created the coding assistant first . They created that category. And Anthropic said, "Oh, like why don't we vertically integrate?" So in other words, they're watching where the value is being created on top of their models. Then they're moving in directly. And this is a formula that I think is…From: this video · 12 claims mined from it

…strong. But let's go back to this supposed crashout by Karp on CNBC. It was nothing of the sort. It was all these legacy media types making that claim. And that's the first clue that he's actually saying something insightful and maybe kind of brilliant. And I think the thing that he said that I hadn't really thought about in quite those terms is he started talking about AI safety in the enterprise and what that really looks like. And what he said is that what technical customers want is control over their compute, their models, their data stack, and their alpha, meaning their proprietary knowledge. They want to know they own the means of production, he said, and it's not being transferred to someone else. And what he's referring to there is that these enterprises are at risk of transferring their knowledge, their know-how, their trade secrets, their customer data to these model providers who might eventually decide to compete with them. Like you said, JCal, and you can see that enterprises are waking up to this threat and they're not happy about it. And I think Karp is exactly right about that. Now, I think this is a really interesting take on AI safety because what safety means for an enterprise is, again, that they get to control their own data, their model weights, their compute, so a frontier lab can't hoover up their proprietary knowledge, their alpha, and turn it into their next product.…From: this video · 12 claims mined from it

…but I want to be able to protect myself in doing so. And then the second is I want the flexibility where there's an independent third party control plane that I use to get all these benefits so that I don't leak and cede my advantages away. And I think Alex is an incredible, smart, brilliant guy, and he completely nailed it. And I think he called out on its face the huge risk of this. So let me just give you this narrative in three tweets. The first one is I read this really interesting study from BCG and what they looked at was the return on capital employed or ROCE of various businesses. And this is what's incredible. The cost of capital has now with long term rates moved back to what its long run average is, which is around eight to 11 percent. What that means is like that is the actual cost that you would borrow money at effectively. The problem is that half of large U.S. companies now cannot deliver returns that exceed that. That is a really big problem. And then second, there's a further problem, which is that persistently low returns. So in the, you know, one, two, three, four, five percent is about one in seven companies all around the world. Okay. So why is this important to note? It means that being in business is complicated. It's hard. Not everything works all the time.…From: this video · 12 claims mined from it

…it on a very typical enterprise task, which is you have an old piece of code, you want to migrate it, and you want to maintain it in a new framework so that it's easier and more flexible, pretty straightforward task. And so we ran it and we ran an experiment where we did Claude by itself, then we did US plus Claude, and then we ran it on the best frontier open source model, and then us plus that model. And the data is crazy. So when you use our harness with Claude , it was simultaneously 1.4 x cheaper and 1.5 x faster than just using Empropic Opus 4. 8 alone. But if you wrap the open source model with our software factory, it was 16.4 x cheaper . Now it was three times slower. But you know, you're talking about a couple of extra hours to save 16.4 x. So that one, the slowness, Chamath, is that slowness because of the hardware being served up by Claude? Or is it this is open router ? No, this was all using open router on a very traditional hardware stack. So look, I think the reality is, could that be optimized even further? Absolutely. But my point is, if you take Saksis points, and then if you take Alex Carp's point, and just this actual data , there is a very legitimate question, which is if you are a reasonable company, why are you…From: this video · 12 claims mined from it

…a lot hard to replace with AI. Totally. I do worry about, well, what happens in some of these other countries that are doing the super entry level stuff? Because I think that is right for your place. So they'll have massive job loss. Why don't it be massive, but that's where the risk is. I mean, frankly, it 's not in the US. Maybe we're getting to some consensus here. Job displacement versus job loss. Here is Brett Adcock sharing what they 're doing at Figure. They had an eight- hour challenge to have this robot they're building stored packages, and they did it for 200 hours. That's today. This is the least good it will ever be. This is the worst it's going to ever be. These things are getting really good. I spent time with Elon. I've looked at Optimus. I can tell you Optimus is better than what Figure is doing. What Optimus is going to do when Bezos and Andy Jassy are the least optimists inside of the Amazon factories is it's going to get rid of every-- let me state this very clearly-- every single package sorting, every single package delivery will not be done by humans in 10 years. And it's starting today, just like the idea that you would put together some of this consumer electronic stuff in factories with humans has gone away over time. And other countries-- I think you're making a very good point here, Sacks-- are going to experience it first. In America, knowledge workers, the entrepreneurial spirit, I think we 're going to see a Cambrian explosion in…From: this video · 12 claims mined from it

…'s not in the US. Maybe we're getting to some consensus here. Job displacement versus job loss. Here is Brett Adcock sharing what they 're doing at Figure. They had an eight- hour challenge to have this robot they're building stored packages, and they did it for 200 hours. That's today. This is the least good it will ever be. This is the worst it's going to ever be. These things are getting really good. I spent time with Elon. I've looked at Optimus. I can tell you Optimus is better than what Figure is doing. What Optimus is going to do when Bezos and Andy Jassy are the least optimists inside of the Amazon factories is it's going to get rid of every-- let me state this very clearly-- every single package sorting, every single package delivery will not be done by humans in 10 years. And it's starting today, just like the idea that you would put together some of this consumer electronic stuff in factories with humans has gone away over time. And other countries-- I think you're making a very good point here, Sacks-- are going to experience it first. In America, knowledge workers, the entrepreneurial spirit, I think we 're going to see a Cambrian explosion in startups, which means we're going to be the ones who benefit from it. But if you're looking at those other countries, they'll see it acutely first. We're just going to see it here with drivers, and that's 5, 10 million people, like we saw it with cashiers. The idea of going to a cash ier at a fast food restaurant, which I know you guys don't…From: this video · 12 claims mined from it

…been they're approaching these large companies with large proprietary data sets and saying, hey, if you share your data, we will give you early access, some sort of proprietary value sign this NDA, and you can participate with us. And I think nearly everyone I've spoken with has woken up to the fact that they are basically trying to commoditize everyone's business because fundamentally, if all of the 10s of billions of dollars you as a life sciences company have invested in experiments and product development, and you've generated all of this proprietary data along the way, that data is a true asset of your organization. It's an asset that you've spent billions of dollars developing. And by handing it over to a model company to then combine with other people's data, you are effectively commoditizing the asset that you have the one kind of core differentiation that you have. And so everyone is largely saying no, the way I see this evolving is very much in line with what Alex Karp suggested on CNBC. If you go back a couple of years, I think we all assumed there was going to be this large hub, large spoke model for AI model development and deployment, meaning there would be these very large clusters. These large clusters would be ultimately capital advantage. So those who had the most capital, which is why everyone's raised 10s and hundreds of billions of dollars , would be able to…From: this video · 12 claims mined from it

…In markets where Waymo has hit critical mass, the number of human drivers is going down. That's just a fact. And they're literally stop recruiting. In some narrow arbitrarily defined subset of their jobs, you're pointing to flatness. Exactly. Meanwhile, Dara told us that hiring a cost to the company has gone up in the face of these trends. That's at the company, not the drivers. No. No, you're wrong. Okay. Anyway, we'll agree to disagree here. Let me give you some actual data. Can I provide us this study? So RAMP and Revelio Labs just released a new study in the past week. Yeah, that was great. And it was an actual study of over 21, 000 firms in the US. And they looked at their payroll data combined with their spending on AI. And what they saw is that firms that spent the most on AI actually grew the fastest. And they tended to grow their head count roughly 10% in the two years following the adoption of AI. And entry level head count rose even faster . It grew at 12%. So all this stuff about how entry level head count is going to get wiped out, not true. The more firms adopted AI, the more hiring they did, at least that was a correlation. Obviously, they can't prove causation, but that was the correlation. And then companies that were not high intensity adopters of AI, they either didn't adopt or they were low intensity adopters, they just saw flatness in their head count. So no…From: this video · 12 claims mined from it

…do work. Okay. But do you think cabs and cities are not going to be self-driving? Do you think Zipline's not going to deliver your food? You're doing the Montanbailey thing again, JCal. It's not Montanbailey. I see this from my investments. I have a company, Autolane, that is doing this right now. But just go to customer support again, because you've been saying, yeah. I literally, we've had this debate ver batim and- Well, displacement, not job loss is my only point. Yeah, yeah, yeah. What Freiburg is pointing out is that whenever anyone pushes back on the fact that you don't have any data to support this in the present, you say you're talking about the future. Okay, fine. It's a prediction. There's no data to support it in the present. That's fine. You're saying it's going to happen in the future. No, no. I'll give you the data point. Oh, you will? You can dismiss what I want. I will. Yes. If you talk to Uber and Waymo, in the cities where Waymo is present and has gotten past a couple of hundred cars, they've stopped recruiting drivers. Drivers are either static or going down in those markets. So that is absolute evidence that this is happening and the rollout is going to be fast and furious. So it is not a future prediction. You can talk to the CEO of Waymo, you can talk to the CEO of Lyft and Uber, and they will tell you this explicitly. That's called marketing. I remember that. We interviewed Darren. He said jobs were increasing at Uber. Yeah. Because you're talking about more . Because productivity is going up with delivery. Productivity goes up. So it means people drive more. I'm not lying. You 're being disingenuous. No. The last time we interviewed Darren , on stage, he said jobs were going up. In markets where Waymo is, in markets where Waymo is, there might be other…From: this video · 12 claims mined from it