← Leaderboard
TS
Torsten Slok
Apollo Global (chief economist, partner)
First call on the ledger
No calls filed yet. Quotes in curly quotation marks are verbatim; everything
else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.
Where they stand
Views on the record but not scoreable bets: no single number and deadline to grade. Shown in their exact words, never scored.
Zero ships through Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb on his screen; inventories critical into the midterms.
That continues to be a very important risk because if we do run dry in tanks, especially in Europe, then we may run out of marine fuel, of jet fuel, of fertilizer, of helium. And obviously this creates a jump risk in prices, especially for energy
WTI crude since this was said: ▼ -7.1% · 80.34 → 74.66 · as of 2026-08-05
BearFed
leaning · 2026-08-03
On Warsh's non-committal presser; steep curve says rates should be higher. EVENT: conditional, dated September.
So therefore if they don't hike in September, of course, then the market will just ask even more questions about what is now the plan.
Stocks driven by AI (top 10 = 40% of index), bonds by fiscal term premium; the hedge is gone.
And therefore we may no longer have the property that you make money on one side and lose on the other, but you may actually lose on both.
AI now dominates equities, IG credit, and 87 percent of venture capital; days after the AI fund blowup.
So the best recommendation today is to be not in AI, because that gets you away from this one factor that is driving markets at the moment.
Nasdaq since this was said: ▲ +2.1% · 25,914 → 26,456 · as of 2026-08-05
the stakes as he frames them on Prof G
“This AI thing better work out, because if it doesn't work out, your portfolio will be in trouble”
hyperscaler financing moved from equity to debt. STANCE corrected bear->neutral: description, and he leaves open whether spread widening is worry or supply
“to now being on the debt side of the balance sheet”
hyperscaler earnings vs the Fed this week
“it's actually become more important than the FOMC meeting”
Clip begins This AI thing better work out ... Because if that doesn't work out, then your portfolio will be in trouble @47:50, and ends there's one factor staring all of us right in our eyes. And that is AI is literally everywhere @48:17. Ed also cites Slok's stat that AI accounts for nearly half of all investment grade bond issuance @47:13.
“That's why ironically, the best investment recommendations today is the new 60/40 is really to do 60 maybe AI and 40 non-AI.”
Nasdaq since this was said: ▲ +3.7% · 25,508 → 26,456 · as of 2026-08-05
Slok frames the current tech correction as a repricing of AI ROI timing: 'markets are now saying, show me the money, show me the returns' @1:05, and notes S&P 493 profit margins 'have literally done nothing for the last 10 years' @1:17, so the inflection must broaden beyond the Mag 7 and hyperscalers.
“that the correction we're seeing at the moment exactly is a reflection that maybe the returns on the ROI, on AI investments, are going to come, but they're just going to come slower than what markets are pricing.”
Nasdaq since this was said: ▲ +3.7% · 25,520 → 26,456 · as of 2026-08-05
Asked if the market is wrong on the Fed: 'the market is still pricing, then we'll get a Fed hike later this year. So it is still the case' @3:40. He cites delayed tariff pass-through ('50% of companies basically said, no, we still have more pass through to do' @3:20) and says a surprise July hike is possible but 'That's not my expectation' @4:12. Note: in this 2026 tape half the FOMC debate is whether to HIKE under the Warsh Fed.
“I still think that the biggest risk is that the market is underappreciating, that rates will stay higher for longer, because inflation is higher.”
Follow Torsten Slok
One short email when Torsten puts a new call on the record, and when a verdict lands on one. Plain words, free.