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Jurrien Timmer tells Bloomberg's Romaine Bostick that S&P 500 Q2 earnings growth rose from ~25% to 32% during the season and momentum is still very strong.
Started the quarter at about 25 percent or so. It's now at 32 percent. And the momentum is just incredibly strong.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▼ -0.9% · 7,786 → 7,719 · as of 2026-09-04
Jurrien Timmer tells Bloomberg the S&P forward P/E is 20 cap-weighted and 18 equal-weighted, with 75% of stocks above their 200-day average.
the forward P on the S&P cap weighted index is 20. On the equal weighted index it's 18. 75 percent of the S&P 500 is in uptrends above their 200 day moving average.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▼ -0.9% · 7,786 → 7,719 · as of 2026-09-04
Jurrien Timmer tells Bloomberg that, risks from 4.7% 10-yr yields and AI financing aside, the S&P 500 is a very strong earnings-driven momentum market for now.
There are some risk from rising interest rates in the 10 years at 470. And of course we can talk about risks in A.I. and how that's all being financed and all of that. But for now this is a very strong earnings driven momentum market.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▼ -0.9% · 7,786 → 7,719 · as of 2026-09-04
Jurrien Timmer tells Bloomberg that S&P forward multiples are reasonable and trailing P/E in the low-to-mid 20s is not terrible, while conceding a bear would cite CAPE near 34.
So the forward multiples are very reasonable. Even the trailing 12 month numbers are in the low to mid 20. So that's not terrible.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▼ -0.9% · 7,786 → 7,719 · as of 2026-09-04
Jurrien Timmer tells Bloomberg that S&P earnings momentum will eventually slow but he does not expect a cliff.
as Romain asks I don't think it's going to be a cliff but it could be a slowdown
S&P 500 since this was said: ▼ -0.9% · 7,786 → 7,719 · as of 2026-09-04
Jurrien Timmer tells Bloomberg that about $70bn of US and Korean money has chased single-name levered semiconductor ETFs, creating pockets of crowded trade.
By my count between the U.S. and Korea about 70 billion dollars has been chasing that space. So there are pockets of crowded trade.
Nasdaq since this was said: ▼ -0.8% · 26,729 → 26,507 · as of 2026-09-04
Jurrien Timmer tells Bloomberg that demand for AI chips remains well ahead of supply despite crowded positioning.
overall you know from what we are seeing the demand for chips is still well ahead of the supply.
Nasdaq since this was said: ▼ -0.8% · 26,729 → 26,507 · as of 2026-09-04
Jurrien Timmer tells Bloomberg that roughly $500bn of investment-grade bond issuance this year and another $500bn next year will finance the AI buildout, raising a crowding-out question for Treasuries.
there's about half a trillion coming in investment grade bond issuance this year. Another half a trillion next year.
Nasdaq since this was said: ▼ -0.8% · 26,729 → 26,507 · as of 2026-09-04
Jurrien Timmer tells Bloomberg his two tail risks are S&P concentration (top 10 names at 40%, all AI) and the bond market.
One is the concentration risk in the S&P of the top 10 names being 40 percent. And it's all AI all the time.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▼ -0.9% · 7,786 → 7,719 · as of 2026-09-04
Jurrien Timmer tells Bloomberg he sees more upside than downside risk to Treasury yields because the economy is running hot and the soft payroll print is mostly statistical.
But I do see more upside risk to Treasury yields than downside risk. The economy is running pretty hot even though we had a weak retail sales number and the payroll number was soft although I think that's mostly a statistical thing.
Jurrien Timmer tells Bloomberg that oil has stayed orderly despite the Iran war but that could change at any moment, with China a potential swing exporter.
And yet oil prices do remain fairly orderly and they haven't really scared the market. I think that could change any moment. China may very well become the key player here because it actually has the ability to to export oil which not many others do.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +12.3% · 82.40 → 92.54 · as of 2026-09-08
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