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'I think right now markets are overestimating the likelihood of a rate hike in 2026' (@14:14); notes CPI and PPI 'were weaker across the board' (@13:33) with 'broad based inflation cooling' (@13:46), while five-year breakevens near 2% are 'correctly' priced.
“Well I'm of the mind that we're not going to get rate hikes this year. Now that's probably a bold statement because there's still a lot of year left to go”
'I do think earnings season is going to be healthy' (@16:33) and 'I don't think that we're slowing down this AI train anytime soon' (@17:09), but expects volatility 'through summer and maybe even into early fall' on the new Fed chairman and midterm rhetoric.
“So the market tends to peak before earnings peak. So earnings could continue to be very, very strong, even with a market that's moving sideways.”
S&P 500 since this was said: ▼ -1.5% · 7,572 → 7,458 · as of 2026-07-17
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