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MZ
Mark Zandi
Moody's Analytics (chief economist)
First call on the ledger
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else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.
Where they stand
Views on the record but not scoreable bets: no single number and deadline to grade. Shown in their exact words, never scored.
On the June CPI print of 3.5 percent (down from 4.2): I think underlying inflation is kind of three to three and a half percent somewhere in there, again, uncomfortably high @3:00. Direction: Yeah, I think we're directionally lower @5:55, conditional on oil staying around 80-85 dollars a barrel as the Iran war (whisper garbles it as the wrong word) stays on script; AI and immigration policy are juicing up inflation. This quote is teaser-duplicated in the cold open at 0:00; in-context occurrence filed.
“it's not going to come in fast. It's going to come in slow and sticky. And it might not be a couple three years before we get back to anything we all feel comfortable with.”
Against markets pricing two quarter-point hikes after Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish no-mission-accomplished testimony, Zandi argues the soft job market (collapsing labor force, weak wage growth, unemployment would be 5 percent at flat participation) offsets the inflation mandate: My sense is they punt ... I'm not changing rates, but I hear you @13:59. He caveats: I say this with low levels of confidence @12:52. Deciding factor is inflation expectations.
“It's a bit outside of consensus. I don't think the Fed's going to raise or lower rates. I think the policy will remain unchanged”
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