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Garfield Reynolds
Bloomberg Markets Live (Asia coverage lead)
First call on the ledger
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else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.
Where they stand
Views on the record but not scoreable bets: no single number and deadline to grade. Shown in their exact words, never scored.
US-Iran strikes in an 11th day, Houthis threatening the Red Sea, oil options positioning at records. He notes this holds 'despite some apparent anticipation that at some stage, Donald Trump will once more pivot towards peace' @84:30, adding Trump is not in a rush to do that.
“Your Brent is substantially above $90 a barrel and looking like it's going to stay there.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▼ -14.0% · 86.83 → 74.66 · as of 2026-08-05
Asked whether intervention at 163 would be wasted, he answers 'Pretty much so. I mean, the tools that they have at their disposal right now are just going to put a few scratches on the due code. But the car is going to keep on rolling' @84:57; dollar strength backed by oil, yields and a hawkish Fed.
“So that's a set up which leaves the yen facing sustained declines about all they can do is try and slow it down, try and keep the declines measured and avoid a too rapid shift.”
He argues the recent AI-trade wobble 'mostly looked like they've wiped out some of the over leveraged, overextended trades from retail investors' @85:48, and with that positioning cleared out the US economy 'still looks very strong' @85:45.
“in a lot of ways we're reasonably set up for further gains in tech shares, for a realisation that the AI boom is going to boost US economic output”
Nasdaq since this was said: ▲ +3.0% · 25,691 → 26,456 · as of 2026-08-05
Earlier he says of next week's meeting, the Fed is 'expected to stay on hold. But this climb in crude prices is going to make it awfully hard for them to do much to tone down the recent hawkish rhetoric' @84:47.
“It's very hard to see how the Fed doesn't stick with a relatively hawkish stance.”
Asked if the 5-6 week selloff is any closer to the bottom: 'I think probably not' @19:35. TSMC and ASML 'report excellent earnings... that didn't help because it didn't assuage those cost concerns' @22:07-22:19; 'just more of the old big earnings by themselves, that's not enough' @23:28. Nikkei down ~4.5% on the day per host @20:43.
“Meanwhile, they also still seem so elevated on a historical basis that we 're some way away from capitulation.”
Nasdaq since this was said: ▲ +3.7% · 25,520 → 26,456 · as of 2026-08-05
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