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Mike McGlone
Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist
First call on the ledger
No calls filed yet. Quotes in curly quotation marks are verbatim; everything
else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.
Where they stand
Views on the record but not scoreable bets: no single number and deadline to grade. Shown in their exact words, never scored.
Anti-consensus: no hike; next Fed move is a series of 50bp cuts triggered by an equity reversion. EVENT: will.
think the next move from the Fed will be a series of 50 basis point cuts, and a normal reversion cycle in the stock market, which means recession, but that
CPI to ~0 and crude near 40 next year, conditional on an S&P drop that sticks. EVENT: will, dated 2027.
I think inflation's peaked at 4.2%. That's CPI. I think crude oil's peaked at 120. And the key head thing I have in the headline for next year, I fully expect CPI can easily get to 0% and crude oil can get to near 40 on a normal cycle.
Long bonds the best H2 trade; 30Y toward 4 percent if equities fall.
So I look at treasury bonds right now as basically a put on the stock market with positive carry and no time decay.
The 5000-gold top-caller stays bearish at ~4100; wants 3000 before 5000; cycle high behind us.
Right now, I'm still bearish gold. I'll probably put out a really bearish comment if we get to near the 200 day mover and everything, give us a bounce.
Gold since this was said: ▲ +6.5% · 4,049 → 4,310 · as of 2026-08-05
Silver to ~50 first key level, decades-long range. EVENT: will.
So I fully expect silver is going to get stupid, cheap, as stupid expensive as it got. 50 is kind of the key first level to kind of knock around.
Gold since this was said: ▲ +6.5% · 4,049 → 4,310 · as of 2026-08-05
Copper toward 5 on a normal equity correction; metals are sock puppets of stocks.
I fully expect it to be more likely to head towards five than stay much above these levels, particularly if you get a normal correction to stock market. That's a problem. My headline for last month's commodity outlook for industrial metals and metals were they're sock puppets, the US stock market.
Midterm-year bear setup; a 2008-like trading year just getting started; admits being early for ~3 years.
I'll end with this. I think it's going to be a trading year of a lifetime. Maybe some in the 2008, it's just getting started.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +3.4% · 7,490 → 7,742 · as of 2026-08-05
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