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Since they said it
9 directional calls with a price to read (2 bullish, 7 bearish). 1 week later, with the call in 0 of 2; 1 month later, with the call in 0 of 2. Prices as of 2026-09-11. Three fixed windows, the same for every call, always shown together: one week, one month, three months after the first close that followed the tape. What the market did, not a score: a call can have a different horizon, and a view with no number or deadline is never graded here.
S&P 500 from 2026-07-06 to 2026-09-10 · ▲ bullish · ▼ bearish · dot = the close that day
Date
Market
Call
What was said
1 week
1 month
3 months
2026-09-10
anchor: next close
S&P 500
Bearish (Leaning)
this is going to be a very contentious midterm election year, last two midterm election years. Markets were down 2018, 2022
Right now, I'm still bearish gold. I'll probably put out a really bearish comment if we get to near the 200 day mover and everything, give us a bounce.
McGlone tells David Lin that Trump's $5,000 voter pledge is a sign of desperation and that Republicans face a potential sweep against them in the 2026 midterms.
So this is going to be a major potential sweep against Republicans.
McGlone tells Lin that US corn yield expectations have collapsed from about 186 bushels to below 180 because of too much July rain (so corn prices are rising).
yields are expected in this country to be about 186 bushels. That was around a record. And now they're dropping below 180.
McGlone tells Lin long-term gold is stuck in an enduring range, could easily fall back to 3,000 before it holds above 5,000, and Fed tightening is a bad environment for it.
So I stick with the, yeah, long-term gold is going to be in an enduring range.
McGlone tells Lin the Fed will not hike at the September 16, 2026 meeting even though markets price about two-thirds odds; if stocks fall they will not hike.
The Fed, as you mentioned, basically two-thirds price for hikes at the September 16th meeting, which I don't think is gonna happen. If stock market goes down, they won't hike.
McGlone tells Lin gold is 60% above its 60-month moving average, an extreme comparable to 1980 and the 2011 peak, and too expensive versus a 5% Treasury yield.
Now it's 60% above that average. That's the highest on a year end basis since basically almost 1980. It's very similar to the peak in 2011.
McGlone tells Lin copper is an accident waiting to happen (crowded hedge-fund longs, inventories piled in CME warehouses) and asks whether the accident is starting.
I've been calling copper an accident waiting to happen. The question is, is the accident starting?
McGlone tells Lin about 70% of major-exchange copper inventories, roughly 700,000 tons, now sit in CME warehouses because tariffs pumped up CME copper.
70% of global inventories of the major exchanges include CME, the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the LME are now in CME type warehouses. That's the highest ever. That's like 700,000 tons.
McGlone tells Lin COMEX copper's 100-day correlation with the S&P 500 is about 0.62, a record for the contract since 1988, which he reads as a warning.
It's a hundred day correlation with the SMB 500 is about 0.62. That's the highest ever with the market going up in the history of that copper contract since 1988.
McGlone tells Lin $100 WTI is probably a decent peak, admitting he thought $120 was the peak early in the year and that he does not really know.
I don't really know how crude oil is gonna go. I think 100 in the US is a decent peak. I thought 120 was a decent peak early in the year, but you see it's breaking stuff.
McGlone tells Lin the S&P 500 versus GDP (Buffett indicator) is at its highest year-end reading since 1928 and something has to give.
you see the SMP 500 versus Warren Buffett's model versus GDP. It's the highest on a year and basis for 1928. So my point is something's going to give here.
McGlone tells Lin that over the long run a basket of stocks beats gold, but at today's valuations you do not want to buy the stock market.
In the long term, you're much better off holding a basket of S&P 500 or stocks than gold. The problem is now, you just don't wanna buy the stock market.
McGlone tells Lin long bonds (TLT) are essentially a positive-carry put on the S&P 500 waiting for a stock-market trigger.
If you look at TLT or bonds is basically, it's essentially a put on the S&P 500 with positive carry, no time decay, and it's just waiting around for a trigger.
McGlone tells Lin that with market cap at 2.5 times GDP a 10% correction equals 25% of GDP, which is why a normal pullback would be severely deflationary.
And it's like, when you're 2.5 times GDP, that means if you correct 10%, that's 25% of the global, of the US economy, that's pretty severe.
Anti-consensus: no hike; next Fed move is a series of 50bp cuts triggered by an equity reversion. EVENT: will.
think the next move from the Fed will be a series of 50 basis point cuts, and a normal reversion cycle in the stock market, which means recession, but that
CPI to ~0 and crude near 40 next year, conditional on an S&P drop that sticks. EVENT: will, dated 2027.
I think inflation's peaked at 4.2%. That's CPI. I think crude oil's peaked at 120. And the key head thing I have in the headline for next year, I fully expect CPI can easily get to 0% and crude oil can get to near 40 on a normal cycle.
The 5000-gold top-caller stays bearish at ~4100; wants 3000 before 5000; cycle high behind us.
Right now, I'm still bearish gold. I'll probably put out a really bearish comment if we get to near the 200 day mover and everything, give us a bounce.
Copper toward 5 on a normal equity correction; metals are sock puppets of stocks.
I fully expect it to be more likely to head towards five than stay much above these levels, particularly if you get a normal correction to stock market. That's a problem. My headline for last month's commodity outlook for industrial metals and metals were they're sock puppets, the US stock market.