Pundit Rumble is a referee, not a critic. We don’t argue about who is smart. We write down what people actually said, attach the deadline they gave, and check the result against the original source when the date arrives.
A prediction gets scored only if it clears five bars: it names a specific thing, it has a number or a clear yes-or-no outcome, it has a deadline, it comes from a source you can click, and it was written down here before the outcome was known. If a call misses a bar, we can’t fairly grade it, so it doesn’t get a verdict. We still show what was said; we just won’t pretend it’s scoreable.
| Verdict | Means |
|---|---|
| Correct | The call hit its bar by the deadline. |
| Missed | It didn’t. |
| Too vague | No clear bar or deadline to grade against. Shown, not counted. |
| On the clock | Written down and dated; the deadline hasn’t arrived. Never counted until it has. |
A record reads as a fraction, like “4 of 15 correct.” We don’t show a percentage until someone has at least 20 resolved calls, because a percentage on a handful of calls misleads. A correct call and a missed call get the same prominence: the hits are what make the misses credible.
Close calls are read in the way most favorable to the person who made them. A target like “ends the year at 5,000” counts as correct within 5% either way, so precision isn’t punished. A range resolves at its friendliest end. A prediction that depended on a condition that never happened is set aside entirely; it neither helps nor hurts. Quotes in curly quotation marks are verbatim, checked against the original video or article. Anything else is a faithful paraphrase, never dressed up as a quote. We never invent a number. Judgment calls are noted in the open so you can disagree with the ruling, not the data.
Plenty of what pundits say is directional but not scoreable: bullish on AI, bearish on oil, no number, no date. We keep those on the record too, in their exact words with sources, grouped by topic. They are never counted in anyone’s score. When a view grows a number and a deadline, it moves to the scoreboard.
Errors are corrected publicly and prominently, and every correction stays on the record in our corrections log. If you spot a mistake, tell us; the fastest way is a comment or DM @punditrumble. This policy is the product: a scoreboard that hides its own errors is worthless.
Samples are small while the project is young, which is exactly why records stay fractions. We track prominent, frequently-quoted figures, not a random sample of all forecasters. Yes-or-no scoring is hard on almost-right calls; we accept that trade for consistency. Nothing here is investment advice.
This is a media project supported by a newsletter and, eventually, disclosed sponsors. There is a hard firewall: no money from any firm whose people we score, and every sponsor is disclosed. The scoreboard is not for sale.
One email a week: who got scored, what resolves next, where the records moved. Free.