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Tom Porcelli

First call on the ledger

No calls filed yet. Quotes in curly quotation marks are verbatim; everything else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.

Where they stand

Views on the record but not scoreable bets: no single number and deadline to grade. Shown in their exact words, never scored.

NeutralFed 2026-08-07
Bloomberg; the hike case rests on tariff/energy inflation the Fed cannot influence.
I think the argument for hiking seems to obviously rest on the shoulders of inflation and we would argue that this is not the kind of inflation that the Fed could actually impact. And so in
BearFed 2026-08-07
Bloomberg; raising rates is not costless; his case for the hold camp.
this many times raising rates is not a costless endeavor. Right

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