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Michael Ball
(affiliation not stated on tape)
First call on the ledger
No calls filed yet. Quotes in curly quotation marks are verbatim; everything
else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.
Where they stand
Views on the record but not scoreable bets: no single number and deadline to grade. Shown in their exact words, never scored.
'Just to reset the levels'; no large hiking cycle; 'Walsh certainly not signaling that'.
“maybe a reversal of the Powell cuts and maybe a subsequent, maybe 75 basis points of hikes just to reset the levels”
Weak buybacks plus heavy IPO and AI paper against investor demand.
“finally we're gonna have more supply than demand.”
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +3.8% · 7,458 → 7,742 · as of 2026-08-05
BearSpaceX
leaning · 2026-07-18
Came in expensive; marketed as a cloud not a rocket; now below IPO price.
“it's now fallen into this momentum unwind in almost all things AI.”
Follow Michael Ball
One short email when Michael puts a new call on the record, and when a verdict lands on one. Plain words, free.