← Leaderboard
TH
Thomas Hayes
Great Hill Capital (managing member)
First call on the ledger
No calls filed yet. Quotes in curly quotation marks are verbatim; everything
else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.
Where they stand
Views on the record but not scoreable bets: no single number and deadline to grade. Shown in their exact words, never scored.
Thomas Hayes (Great Hill Capital) tells David Lin the August rebound in semiconductors/memory is a dead-cat bounce he would sell, expecting it to fade around the third/fourth week of August as institutions use it to raise cash.
I would be a seller of this move, it's a dead cat bounce and that's why you see these waterfalls like you saw in 2000, like you saw in 2022
Nasdaq since this was said: ▼ -0.3% · 26,588 → 26,507 · as of 2026-09-04
Thomas Hayes (Great Hill Capital) tells David Lin the Fed will certainly not hike by end-2026 and is more likely to cut, whether before year-end or in Q1 2027.
we're moving down the spectrum towards where I'd expected we'd be towards the end of the year, which is more likely a cut, certainly no hikes.
Thomas Hayes (Great Hill Capital) tells David Lin that if long-end yields get out of control, Treasury Secretary Bessent will step in and an Operation Twist-style intervention may follow.
I think if it gets out of control, I think you'll see Bessin start to get involved. And you may see an operation twist coming to play.
Thomas Hayes (Great Hill Capital) tells David Lin he keeps playing a weaker US dollar and a stronger yen over the coming couple of years despite the short-term counter-trend move.
I'd continue to play weaker dollar over the coming couple of years and stronger yen.
Thomas Hayes (Great Hill Capital) tells David Lin that AI-related exposure in leveraged ETFs has jumped from 26% to 58% in the last couple of years, a warning sign of leverage in the AI trade.
AI related exposure to leverage ETFs now has jumped from 26% to 58% in the last couple of years
Nasdaq since this was said: ▼ -0.3% · 26,588 → 26,507 · as of 2026-09-04
Thomas Hayes (Great Hill Capital) tells David Lin that Whale Rock (-21.7%), Lone Pine (-27%) and Altimeter (-11%) lost heavily in July, evidence that institutions must deleverage into the bounce.
whale rock down 21.7% in the month of July, lone pine, 27%. Altimeter, okay, down 11% in the month of July.
Nasdaq since this was said: ▼ -0.3% · 26,588 → 26,507 · as of 2026-09-04
Thomas Hayes (Great Hill Capital) tells David Lin that tech revenue growth (15%) and earnings expectations have not been this high since Q4 2021, which in his view preceded the 2022 tech correction.
have not seen revenue growth, or earnings expectations at levels this high, you know, 15% revenue growth since q4 of 2021.
Nasdaq since this was said: ▼ -0.3% · 26,588 → 26,507 · as of 2026-09-04
Thomas Hayes (Great Hill Capital) tells David Lin he is not bearish on the long-term AI thesis (mid innings) but the return on investment will show up much later than the market assumes.
we're not generally bearish on the AI thesis. We think we're mid innings, but the return on investment is going to show up much later.
Nasdaq since this was said: ▼ -0.3% · 26,588 → 26,507 · as of 2026-09-04
Thomas Hayes (Great Hill Capital) tells David Lin record equity issuance (Intel, Alphabet) will overwhelm demand and weigh on US equities over the next two to three months into the November election, after which he plans to buy aggressively.
at some point when you keep issuing equity, the supply overwhelms demand. And I think we're going to see the effects of that in the next couple of two, three months headed into the election.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▼ -0.4% · 7,748 → 7,719 · as of 2026-09-04
Thomas Hayes (Great Hill Capital) tells David Lin that hedge funds hit in July face redemption requests and will sell AI/semiconductor stocks into the dead-cat bounce in coming weeks.
These are guys that are going to wait for the dead cat bounces to create the liquidity that they need to meet the redemption requests. And that's coming to a theater near you in coming weeks.
Nasdaq since this was said: ▼ -0.3% · 26,588 → 26,507 · as of 2026-09-04
Thomas Hayes (Great Hill Capital) tells David Lin not to bet against the US consumer: unemployment is ~4%, confidence is turning up off multi-decade lows, and spending holds as long as oil stays roughly $70-90.
you never want to bet against the U.S. consumer when they have a job and with 4% unemployment rate, even though job growth is slowing, they do have jobs and their consumer confidence is turning up.
Thomas Hayes (Great Hill Capital) tells David Lin to ease out of the AI trade short term and move aggressively into a barbell of consumer staples/healthcare (defense) and consumer discretionary (offense), excluding utilities.
I think I would be easing up out of this AI trade in the short term. I would be easing into or aggressively moving into defensive consumer and offensive consumer, AKA consumer staples and consumer discretionary bet on the U.S. consumer here.
Thomas Hayes (Great Hill Capital) tells David Lin that insurance premiums and owners' equivalent rent, two sticky post-COVID inflation components, are softening, which supports contained inflation expectations and consumer confidence.
The insurance premiums and the insurance industry is softening against all consensus that it ever would. And owners equivalent rent and rents are stabilizing and coming down.
Thomas Hayes (Great Hill Capital) tells David Lin that back-to-school retail sales will come in stronger than expectations because the bar for the consumer is so low.
I think back to school is going to be relatively stronger than expectations.
Thomas Hayes (Great Hill Capital) tells David Lin the hyperscalers are free-cash-flow negative and cannot buy back stock, with FCF not expected to inflect until late 2027 or early 2028.
That's not expected to inflect until or start to turn up until the late 27, early 28. That's predicated on we hope and expect that we'll start to see a return on invested capital.
Nasdaq since this was said: ▼ -0.3% · 26,588 → 26,507 · as of 2026-09-04
Thomas Hayes (Great Hill Capital) tells David Lin that AI investment will eventually show up in productivity, but only in another 18-24 months, and the despondency phase before then will be the time to buy the AI trade.
I'm of the camp that the answer will be yes, but it will take another 18 to 24 months. And there will be a point in time during that period where people stop believing that the return will come before the bill comes due. And that will be the time to buy the AI trade.
Nasdaq since this was said: ▼ -0.3% · 26,588 → 26,507 · as of 2026-09-04
Thomas Hayes (Great Hill Capital) tells David Lin that Alphabet's $85bn raise looks like a bad use of capital on short-term results, but he is in the camp that AI capex pays off eventually, just on a longer runway than the market expects.
And I'm kind of in that camp. I just think that the runway to that brighter day is a bit longer than the market thinks it's going to be right now.
Nasdaq since this was said: ▼ -0.3% · 26,588 → 26,507 · as of 2026-09-04
Thomas Hayes (Great Hill Capital) tells David Lin the current AI market is not a 2000-style top in his view, but there will be painful drawdowns before a final parabolic move five to seven years out.
which we believe it is not, there will be pain along the way onto that final parabolic move, which time, whether that's five or seven years out, when people realize the emperor has no clothes
S&P 500 since this was said: ▼ -0.4% · 7,748 → 7,719 · as of 2026-09-04
Thomas Hayes (Great Hill Capital) tells David Lin that lending against 2026-vintage Nvidia GPUs is not secured lending because the chips will be worth less in seven years, and he expects the securitization story to unravel around five years out.
You cannot make the case. If I lend on a 2026 vintage Nvidia GPU, that in seven years, it's going to be worth more than it's worth today. And I'm going to get my money back.
Thomas Hayes (Great Hill Capital) tells David Lin he cannot buy software stocks despite cheap free-cash-flow multiples because he cannot rule out AI fully disintermediating them within five years, even though he suspects the sell-off is overdone.
I just can't be damn certain this is not going to be fully disintermediated five years from now.
Nasdaq since this was said: ▼ -0.3% · 26,588 → 26,507 · as of 2026-09-04
Thomas Hayes (Great Hill Capital) tells David Lin Diageo is his defensive-consumer pick and takes its next leg higher once the AI dead-cat bounce rolls over.
When that rolls back over, Diageo takes its next leg higher. So, so we, we love that trade.
Thomas Hayes (Great Hill Capital) tells David Lin Disney is his offensive-consumer pick, a cheap long-term play after a 50% sell-off given its IP library, packed parks and cash-flow-positive streaming.
So this is a cheap long-term play. This happens every 15, 20 years. The stock sells off 50%. Everyone says it's over and then they realize, oh my gosh, they have the greatest IP, uh, library in the history of mankind.
Follow Thomas Hayes
One short email when Thomas puts a new call on the record, and when a verdict lands on one. Plain words, free.