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Joe Lavorgna
SMBC Nikko Securities (chief economist)
First call on the ledger
1 still on the clock. Quotes in curly quotation marks are verbatim; everything
else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.
On the clock
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Said Jul 16, 2026 · resolves Dec 31, 2026
“So the Fed, in my view, has to hike. Kevin will hike, and it will be this year.” Backed on tape: “inflation will not go back to target without some help from the Fed.”
Where they stand
Views on the record but not scoreable bets: no single number and deadline to grade. Shown in their exact words, never scored.
'inflation will not go back to target without some help from the Fed' @1:33; 'with this AI boom... the neutral or real rate is higher' @2:28; 'Chris Waller made the same point in his speech this week' @2:54. He adds a rates kicker: if the Warsh Fed hikes, 'you actually may get long rates to actually fall' @5:49. This is the title claim of the video.
“So the Fed, in my view, has to hike. Kevin will hike, and it will be this year.”
'we're gonna have double digits in the mid to high teens for CapEx and GDP, the retail sales are strong, the labor market shows no signs of weakening now. It's actually appears to be firming. Claims are super low' @1:15-1:30; last year's 75bp of easing was based on labor-market concerns that 'now are misplaced' @1:36-1:44.
“I mean, the economy is booming, but there is certainly inflation pressure.”
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