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Kevin Warsh
Federal Reserve (Chair)
Photo: Editorial (Option A policy, Jun 10 2026) - owner-supplied; confirm if Fed public domain
First call on the ledger
No calls filed yet. Quotes in curly quotation marks are verbatim; everything
else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.
Where they stand
Views on the record but not scoreable bets: no single number and deadline to grade. Shown in their exact words, never scored.
the Lucas-critique remark on inflation measures that fed the week's bond selloff; presser source event
“we might make them such that they're not very good measures or very good objectives”
his framing of the three dissents
“I asked for a good family fight and I got one.”
defends withholding forward guidance; presser replay on Real Yield
“Market participants are learning to play the ball not the referee and market prices will continue to respond in the direction and magnitude they see fit.”
celebrates the three-dissent meeting as his intended open-debate model
“It was a real family fight. That's the better way to get policy right. That's our North Star.”
the chair's statement after the 9-3 hold
“There is no soft inflation target. There is no soft implicit target, not on this committee's watch.”
his credibility line
“This Fed will not waver.”
his case for pulling forward guidance
“Market participants are learning to play the ball, not the referee”
the timeline he sets
“five plus years of inflation above target cannot be cured in nine weeks”
AI-related high-tech investment, the economy's most striking feature per the chair
“four quarter growth rates of nearly 20%”
Nasdaq since this was said: ▲ +8.2% · 24,443 → 26,456 · as of 2026-08-05
answering impatience about delivering 2%
“the suggestion that we're going to be able to do it with our magic wand is one I want to dis abuse you and everyone else of”
NeutralFed
leaning · 2026-07-29
markets doing the tightening for the Fed
“have tightened financial conditions in this intra-meeting period”
Day-one House testimony reaction to the first negative CPI print in six years; Bloomberg chyron: WARSH: NO 'MISSION ACCOMPLISHED' AFTER CPI; created a data task force to avoid cherry-picking
“There might be some that look at this morning's data and say oh mission accomplished”
From the prepared House testimony aired on Bloomberg Brief; paired with 'no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation'
“The inflation surge of the last five years will be a thing of the past. The members of our committee have no tolerance”
Senate exchange on Fed independence; declines to disclose the content of any Trump communications; meets the Treasury Secretary weekly; 'They chose an independent guy to do an independent job' (@0:56)
“he has not tried to influence the conduct of monetary policy”
First congressional testimony as Fed chair, on the AI buildout the day New York froze new data centers; adds 'We at the Fed are monitoring the implications for employment and for inflation.' (@25:43); clip aired within Bloomberg Balance of Power 07/14
“Listen, this seems inevitable. That which we're now calling A.I. investment will soon just be called investment.”
Nasdaq since this was said: ▲ +1.3% · 26,107 → 26,456 · as of 2026-08-05
NeutralThe Fed
leaning · 2026-07-01
On hike chatter: “Volatility is not up, it's down. Yields aren't up, they're down… I hear this as if people don't understand. I think they actually do.” Declines all forward guidance incl. balance-sheet level (“we have a task force for that too”, $6.7T today)
…them a pre-commitment, but the whole reaction function, how you think of how you're going to make policy. So I think the most important thing we can do is to get policy right. If our communications tools, if our models, if the way we've been playing things makes it harder for us to go into these meetings, have a family fight with our colleagues, and make the best decision in pursuit of our mandates, if that's an obstacle we should get rid of it. It is, it is said in recent weeks, well, we need to know more about your reaction function. If I look at trigger pullers, people that are making decisions in the bond market, in a range of markets, volatility is not up, it's down. Yields aren't up, they're down. Inflation expectations are down. So I hear this that as if people don't understand, I think they actually understand quite well. I feel incredible comfort that I 'm not sure I had internalized, that there is a willingness by my colleagues in the central banking community around the world to go back to first principles. We all want to make the best decisions we can. We've all been burdened with many of the policies that in some sense the Fed created in the 2008 financial crisis. This is a rare moment for us to go back to first principles, ask hard questions…From: this video · 2 claims mined from it
At the ECB Forum, on how his Fed will operate:
“interest rates should be the dominant means through which we make monetary policy if we're in a crisis that could be a different set of rules”
…and Chairman Warsh you have talked about before you became Fed Chairman that the balance sheet was too big in the United States so it's at six point seven trillion right now what level would you be comfortable with it at no forward guidance and I'm not going to get it's the balance sheet okay just we're just among friends we have a task force for that too we're gonna play drinking game on task force I'll say this there is no secret that from the 2011 period when I was leaving the Fed through now I wanted the feds balance sheet to be smaller and I long wrote about and described interest rates should be the dominant means through which we make monetary policy if we're in a crisis that could be a different set of rules it's always struck me that interest rate policy is the fairest so the broad constellation of our citizens interest rate policy whether we move it up or down transmits its way into a new mortgage credit card debt transmits its way through a lending channel and credit channel I've always had a view that the balance sheet works mostly through asset prices works mostly through signaling effects my four weeks at the Fed haven't disabused me of that idea as we're hearing an alarm that must be my way of saying that I've gone…From: this video · 2 claims mined from it
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