Kevin Warsh
Federal Reserve
Photo: Editorial (Option A policy, Jun 10 2026) - owner-supplied; confirm if Fed public domain
First call on the ledger
No calls filed yet. Quotes in curly quotation marks are verbatim; everything else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.
Where they stand
Views on the record but not scoreable bets: no single number and deadline to grade. Shown in their exact words, never scored.
NeutralInflation
the Lucas-critique remark on inflation measures that fed the week's bond selloff; presser source event
“we might make them such that they're not very good measures or very good objectives”
NeutralFed
defends withholding forward guidance; presser replay on Real Yield
“Market participants are learning to play the ball not the referee and market prices will continue to respond in the direction and magnitude they see fit.”
NeutralFed
celebrates the three-dissent meeting as his intended open-debate model
“It was a real family fight. That's the better way to get policy right. That's our North Star.”
NeutralFed
the chair's statement after the 9-3 hold
“There is no soft inflation target. There is no soft implicit target, not on this committee's watch.”
NeutralFed
his case for pulling forward guidance
“Market participants are learning to play the ball, not the referee”
NeutralInflation
the timeline he sets
“five plus years of inflation above target cannot be cured in nine weeks”
NeutralThe AI Trade
AI-related high-tech investment, the economy's most striking feature per the chair
“four quarter growth rates of nearly 20%”
Nasdaq since this was said: ▲ +6.7% · 24,443 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
NeutralFed
answering impatience about delivering 2%
“the suggestion that we're going to be able to do it with our magic wand is one I want to dis abuse you and everyone else of”
NeutralFed
markets doing the tightening for the Fed
“have tightened financial conditions in this intra-meeting period”
NeutralInflation
Day-one House testimony reaction to the first negative CPI print in six years; Bloomberg chyron: WARSH: NO 'MISSION ACCOMPLISHED' AFTER CPI; created a data task force to avoid cherry-picking
“There might be some that look at this morning's data and say oh mission accomplished”
NeutralInflation
From the prepared House testimony aired on Bloomberg Brief; paired with 'no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation'
“The inflation surge of the last five years will be a thing of the past. The members of our committee have no tolerance”
NeutralThe Fed
Senate exchange on Fed independence; declines to disclose the content of any Trump communications; meets the Treasury Secretary weekly; 'They chose an independent guy to do an independent job' (@0:56)
“he has not tried to influence the conduct of monetary policy”
BullishThe AI Trade
First congressional testimony as Fed chair, on the AI buildout the day New York froze new data centers; adds 'We at the Fed are monitoring the implications for employment and for inflation.' (@25:43); clip aired within Bloomberg Balance of Power 07/14
“Listen, this seems inevitable. That which we're now calling A.I. investment will soon just be called investment.”
Nasdaq since this was said: ▼ -0.1% · 26,107 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
NeutralThe Fed
On hike chatter: “Volatility is not up, it's down. Yields aren't up, they're down… I hear this as if people don't understand. I think they actually do.” Declines all forward guidance incl. balance-sheet level (“we have a task force for that too”, $6.7T today)
NeutralThe Fed
At the ECB Forum, on how his Fed will operate:
“interest rates should be the dominant means through which we make monetary policy if we're in a crisis that could be a different set of rules”
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We write down what public figures predict, in their exact words, and check the result when the deadline arrives. Every line links to its source. How we score · Corrections · The scoreboard · The data
© 2026 Pundit Rumble · independent and unaffiliated · updated every market morning · not investment advice.
We write down what public figures predict, in their exact words, and check the result when the deadline arrives. Every line links to its source. How we score · Corrections · The scoreboard · The data
© 2026 Pundit Rumble · independent and unaffiliated · updated every market morning · not investment advice.