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Where they stand
Views on the record but not scoreable bets: no single number and deadline to grade. Shown in their exact words, never scored.
US inflation direction from here
“I think inflation, as measured by the CPI, or any way you wanna measure it, is headed higher.”
asked how high inflation could go. answer to the host question; the double-digit floor is unconditional
“Oh, double digits for sure.”
5-year BTC forecast in the Pompliano debate. clean binary vs the Jul-2031 print; reaffirmed on tape (Really? - Yeah)
“I think five years from now, Bitcoin will be lower than it is today”
Bitcoin since this was said: ▼ -0.5% · 65,033 → 64,703 · as of 2026-08-05
where BTC long-term support sits. teaser cold-open placement at t0=0; in-body version conditional on BTC first breaking 50K
“20, 30,000 is still a big number for Bitcoin”
Bitcoin since this was said: ▼ -0.5% · 65,033 → 64,703 · as of 2026-08-05
Strategy (Saylor) equity if BTC breaks. no timeframe; path partly conditional on BTC breaking 50,000
“the common stock will be worthless”
host conceding BTC stagnation despite tailwinds
“the price is not higher than it was five years ago”
Bitcoin since this was said: ▼ -0.5% · 65,033 → 64,703 · as of 2026-08-05
On new Fed chair Warsh, at the ECB Forum:
“gold is still in a major, major bull market”
Gold since this was said: ▲ +3.7% · 4,155 → 4,310 · as of 2026-08-05
…metal that we have. And, you know, we 've seen a pullback in the price of gold since the war broke out. Yeah. And that's led a lot of people to think, oh, wait a minute. Maybe gold's not a safe haven anymore. It went down. It didn't go up. Gold went up in anticipation of this war. One of the reasons that gold went to 56 00 or 56 or 56. It went as high as 56. Yeah. 5600 was gold markets started looking forward to the war. But also gold had a huge run even before that. So by the time the war came around, gold was very overextended, overbought. It was due for a pullback. And the war ended up being the catalyst , more of a buy the room or sell the fact. But gold is still in a major, major bull market. So is silver. Silver's had a little bit more volatility. Gold, Peter, has performed less well since the war than Bitcoin did. So that brings me to you, Anthony. Sure, it's Bitcoin looks better than gold since February 27th. But that said, Bitcoin has had extraordinary returns. Unbelievable since it first became a thing in January of 2009. However, it's also suffered multiple massive crashes. I think several of 50 percent or more. That to me is something where you look at an asset that can suffer that kind of retrenchment and that kind of hit. How is that even good? Forget retirees…From: this video · 3 claims mined from it
“I don't even know if Bitcoin is going to be around in another decade”
Bitcoin since this was said: ▲ +1.1% · 64,001 → 64,703 · as of 2026-08-05
…in the United States, second of all, is that the United States has frozen Venezuela's gold. They froze in Russia's gold. They've gone after China's gold. Only if they have possession of it. And again, but you can't do that with an asset that cannot be censored. What do you mean? Look at all the Bitcoin we've seized. How do you think we have a Bitcoin strategic reserve? It's all the seized Bitcoin. There was just some rumors, I don't know, that we seized Iran's Bitcoin or whatever they had. It's a lot harder to seize gold because if you have your own gold in a vault, unless you're going to send the military on the ground to get it, gold is far more secure. Let me ask you this. Over the next decade, do you think that Bitcoin or gold is going to outperform each other? If you had to pick between gold and Bitcoin, which one do you think? I don't even know if Bitcoin is going to be around in another decade. You want to make a bet on it? Bet what? If Bitcoin is going to be around in a decade? Bet a bar of gold. Everybody else wants to bet me. You know, I got that. That's an easy bet. If you think it's going to go away, let 's make a little bet. Well, I can't. It's not going to go to zero, maybe. Oh, OK. So Bitcoin is not going to zero . Let's see. We're making progress. It will underperform gold. I'll make you that. A huge part of Bitcoin's recent run up has a lot to do with the administration being incredibly open armed to it. And President Trump had said he wanted to be the crypto president. He's very much involved in it. He hawks his own coin. Melania has the first lady hawks a coin . His kids are involved in Bitcoin companies, et cetera. At what point does Bitcoin become exactly the very system that it was…From: this video · 3 claims mined from it
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