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Michelle 'Mish' Schneider
MarketGauge.com (chief strategist)
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NeutralThe Fed
leaning · 2026-07-17
'we're still seeing pressure on the Fed to potentially raise rates, although we don't think that's going to happen.' @3:18; on Chair Warsh's hawkishness: 'I don't believe wash, talkish talk.' @8:59 (whisper garble of 'Warsh hawkish talk'). Sees the Fed forced to weigh a softening economy: jobless claims ticking up: against PCE and jobs data, with the July meeting ahead.
“But I don't think that we're going to go into much higher rates. If anything, how I feel about the market is how I feel about rates. They may have been topping here--”
Show billed as her explaining 'why she believes recession risks are building.' Her tells: metals no longer wowing, dollar breaking under 100, TLT reclaiming its 50-day, plus midterm-cycle pressure and war confidence shocks: 'There's a lot of cracks that if they got bigger, we would see that in those areas that I just mentioned.' @12:41. She disarms it herself: 'I don't want people to run out and go, oh, Mish said there's a recession'; host recap: 'Not saying that we're definitely gonna get a recession the next six, eight, 10 months, but she's seeing some cracks.' Notes XRT over 90 makes recession 'hard to make a case for... at this moment.'
“listen, I'm talking six to eight months out. It's a bold statement. If you look at the statistics, they're saying 10% chance of recession.”
'if you just take FXI right now, that's up and about to break out over the 50-day moving average after being so bearish while the S&P was making new highs.' @6:44. Framing: China 'does things faster and cheaper' in AI/chips; Nvidia still works with China, which is why it holds up better than other semis.
“And now we're seeing the S&P potentially-- I wouldn't exactly call being down 29 points much of a sell-off, but the potential for it to be topping while China's bottoming is something to watch for.”
S&P 500 since this was said: ▼ -0.2% · 7,458 → 7,443 · as of 2026-07-20
Her coined 'vanity trade': GLP-1 sales heading toward $50B this year with ripple effects into beauty, apparel and fitness. Levels: Ulta 'if it gets through $480 and then back through $500, that's telling you people are going back to beauty' @18:30; Novo Nordisk reclaimed 50; on e.l.f. and peers: 'if we hold here, they seem undervalued to me.' @19:21. Estee Lauder noted as 'a Michael Burry pick' basing out.
“And you say $50 billion, I think that may just be nothing compared to where it's going to go.”
'everybody got like super bullish right at the top' @10:27. Reads the metals stall plus the Fort Knox audit noise as the market saying the dollar is strong despite $39T+ debt; watch the dollar under 100: 'that might actually flip back more into the medals.' @11:18. Whisper renders 'metals' as 'medals' throughout: kept verbatim.
“I was bullish for years, and I am flat in the medals, which I have been for months now. Do I think they could bottom? Yeah.”
Gold since this was said: ▲ +0.0% · 4,013 → 4,014 · as of 2026-07-20
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