Tom Lee

…. You weren't really impressed with June that much in terms of the averages kind of stalling out, and you expect July to be better as val uations are more reasonable and sentiment is not crazy bullish. Does that sum things up? Yeah. I mean, in July, we're going to get Q2 earnings. Right. And in the first quarter, earnings came in way better than expected. And so the market's PE is actually lower now than it was in January by one point, one full turn. And I think second quarter earnings are going to surprise to the upside again. So the market's going to get cheaper again. And that means there's room for PE to expand. So I think July is going to be a stronger month for stocks. 8,000 is doable this year. Yes. The S&P. Yeah. Because 8,000 would be roughly 20 times 2027 earnings of 400. I think that's a low estimate. I think the PE multiple could be 22 or better. So that would be even 84, 80, 800 kind of would be the upside into your end. But I do think between now and year end , there should be something that might feel like a bear market too. Not in July, but maybe between August and October. Why not in July? Well, I think Joe cited that June wasn…From: this video · 2 claims mined from it

…Great time to check in with Tom Lee, Head of Research at Fundstrat, Chief Investment Officer of Fundstrat Capital as well as the CNBC contributor . You weren't really impressed with June that much in terms of the averages kind of stalling out, and you expect July to be better as val uations are more reasonable and sentiment is not crazy bullish. Does that sum things up? Yeah. I mean, in July, we're going to get Q2 earnings. Right. And in the first quarter, earnings came in way better than expected. And so the market's PE is actually lower now than it was in January by one point, one full turn. And I think second quarter earnings are going to surprise to the upside again. So the market's going to get cheaper again. And that means there's room for PE to expand. So I think July is going to be a stronger month for stocks. 8,000 is doable this year. Yes. The S&P. Yeah. Because 8,000 would be roughly 20 times 2027 earnings of 400. I think that's a low estimate. I think the PE multiple could be 22 or better. So that would be even 84, 80, 800 kind of would be the upside into your end. But I do think between now and year end , there should be something that might…From: this video · 2 claims mined from it

…crypto story, because as a, quote, mousetrap, blockchain is still the best way to still transmit and store value and record transactions without trust. And that's why I think Wall Street is still going to build and is rapidly building on blockchains. It's just not happening to our everyday lives just yet. And for the same reason why I think a lot of the AI engineers are tinkering with using blockchain to manage future agents to protect us. Because as AI becomes quite wealthy, humans might be taken out of that economic loop. So I think that's why, to me, Bitcoin will make a full recovery. I believe you're gonna see Bitcoin over 100,000 by the end of the year. And Ethereum back to over 5,000. So I think investors patience is clearly tested. Because we';ve, I think Bitcoin's been down three quarters in a row. But I think it's never been down four quarters in a row. So this would be a test that if they don't bounce from June to September, then you're right, maybe something's broken. >> Is there a price point at which you would say, yes, it is broken. The story is broken and it won't work. And you're more like, do you ever think about that? >> For Bitcoin, the way to look at it is its production cost. Because there is a cost of mining and…From: this video · 8 claims mined from it

…Because you're right, fundamentals are quite good. Expectations are even higher in some cases. We think the market does go higher. But some choppiness, some pullbacks, some repricing risk, it all makes sense . But see, I ask you this every time, Tom , you're with me, because people, they hear you and they assume that you're always bullish, and directionally, you are, with the caveat this time of you still are expecting a meaningful pullback in stocks at some point before another significant ramp up into the end of the year. And you haven't changed that, have you? And I ask you every time. Yeah. And again, I think we're still in this up phase. So I think near term, I think we can be 77, 7,800 first. And then a 10% to 15% pullback, but for understandable reasons. Because the Fed is something the market 's trying to understand. And we've got an unlock of a major IPO coming. And there's cumulative shortages now in petroleum products that becomes a pricing risk later this year. But I do think the earnings momentum is very strong, and investors are still offsides. In fact, fund managers are having one of the worst years, actually in almost five years. This is one of the worst years for growth managers. And so I think they're going to buy that dip. Are we vulnerable to something like that? I think the pullback, I think Tom's right. But I think the pullback comes from a higher level, right? We're still looking at the fundamentals . We're still looking at credit.…From: this video · 1 claim mined from it

…70 years. And historically, that's associated with that cohort of traders, you know, that borrow money running out of firepower. But on the flip side, when we look at fund manager performance this year, looking at large cap growth, 76% of fund managers are trailing their benchmark this year, which is a pretty historic number on large cap blend, 60 %, which is not as historic. So today, I would say growth managers probably missed a lot of that semi and DRAM rally. I think they're going to be chasing it in the second half, which is why I would probably stay bullish. I'm anxious about this market in a lot of ways, because I look at, you know, the Shiller PE as an example, which is extremely high right now, basically coming up on dotcom territory. And I guess there's a distinction between the forward earnings and the trailing earnings that I'm starting to feel is important. And that is a lot of these earnings that we're seeing that they hinge on these contracts with these AI companies whose ability to actually pay out on those contracts. I think it's not unreasonable to say that they should be at least questioned , open AI in their spending plans, ent ropic in their spending plans, SpaceX, etc.…From: this video · 8 claims mined from it

…benchmark this year, which is a pretty historic number on large cap blend, 60 %, which is not as historic. So today, I would say growth managers probably missed a lot of that semi and DRAM rally. I think they're going to be chasing it in the second half, which is why I would probably stay bullish. I'm anxious about this market in a lot of ways, because I look at, you know, the Shiller PE as an example, which is extremely high right now, basically coming up on dotcom territory. And I guess there's a distinction between the forward earnings and the trailing earnings that I'm starting to feel is important. And that is a lot of these earnings that we're seeing that they hinge on these contracts with these AI companies whose ability to actually pay out on those contracts. I think it's not unreasonable to say that they should be at least questioned , open AI in their spending plans, ent ropic in their spending plans, SpaceX, etc. And so at the same time, we've also been looking at some of this research that was coming out recently that Goldman actually confirmed, which is that a lot of the earnings that we were seeing, especially from big tech companies. A lot of those earnings reflect the increase in their stakes in their private investments in AI companies,…From: this video · 8 claims mined from it

…V-shaped recoveries. It's always been met with a lot of skepticism. Even earlier this year, we had said that the pullback associated with the war would be a V- shaped recovery. >> You did say that, yeah. >> Yeah, and many don't believe it because they would point to oil and all these uncertainties. But I think what I've realized is markets front load on negative shocks. So that's why I think we could have a very severe correction. But unless the economy is breaking, so we actually have a negative cycle, I think that the yield curve will tell us and spreads will tell us, corporate credit spreads. But as long as the economy isn't breaking, whatever correction we have will be V- shaped. I know I'm saying something that sounds mechanical. Of course, it'll be put to the test, but that would still be my default belief. >> It seems as though the market has been getting more and more V-shaped. When we look at just how short these recoveries have been, the war was a perfect example. You did say at the beginning of the year, you thought that we would see a bear market like correction and then a whips aw back. That is what we saw, but it just came in the form of a strange thing, which was going to war with Iran. Looking at your favorite sectors right now for the year, you have energy, small caps,…From: this video · 8 claims mined from it

…You point out the MAG7 and the IGV, i.e. software stocks that got pummeled by the SaaS Pocalypse and then SaaS P ocalypse 2. I'm also with you on that, but why are you long MAG7 and IGV? >> I believe they're both downstream beneficiaries of AI. In the same way that Scott mentioned that Amazon is a huge beneficiary of AI , and I think the financial services industry is a huge beneficiary of AI. I think today investors are buying bott lenecks because there's visible growth there. But every month that passes, there's a compounding benefit taking place to people who are downstream of AI, because that's companies and software. These software companies, they're not monolithic. They have boards and CEOs and they have salespeople and engineers, and they're all witnessing what we're witnessing. There's many ways that they can benefit from AI. So to us, it's the D rating that's taken place, and all of those stocks that tells us the risk-reward is really attractive. [MUSIC] >> We'll be right back, and for even more markets content, sign up for our newsletter at profg markets.com. [MUSIC]…From: this video · 8 claims mined from it