Tom Lee
Fundstrat Global Advisors
Photo: Xuthoria, CC BY-SA 4.0
3 of 12 correct
3 correct, 9 missed; 3 too vague to score; 10 still on the clock. Quotes in curly quotation marks are verbatim; everything else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.
Scored calls
Correct
S&P 500 ends 2025 at 6,600
Correct
Bitcoin 'comfortably over $100K... before the end of this year'
Correct
S&P 500 will climb to 4,750 by year-end 2023
Missed
S&P 500 to ~7,000 by mid-2025
Missed
S&P 500 will end 2024 at 5,200
Missed
“In the next 12 months it seems like small-caps can be up 50%” - Russell 2000 from ~1,996 to 3,000
Missed
“With the Fed doing a dovish pause, and CEOs getting more confident - that means M&A and IPOs - and people looking at other sectors, I do think the Russell can rise 50% this year”
Missed
Bitcoin will hit $150,000 by end of 2024
Missed
S&P 500 will rise 4% to a record 5,500 by the end of this month
Missed
Raised 2023 year-end target to 4,825; new all-time high above prior record before year-end
Missed
“I still think it could exit the year over $100,000” - Bitcoin
Missed
“...we think it could reach $25,000 by the end of the year” (Bitcoin)
Too vague
S&P 500 'could end the year at 5,700, maybe even higher'
Too vague
Bitcoin clearing price over $150K, 'could even be like $180,000', after a spot BTC ETF approval
Too vague
Ether to $62,000 if ETH/BTC reverts to a 0.25 ratio; $12,000 at the 8-year average ratio
On the clock
Written down and dated. Not judged until the deadline arrives.
“History shows that the SpaceX IPO should not actually mark the market top... I think the market's going to do well post IPO.”
Ether base case of $12,000 in 2026, tied to Bitcoin reaching $250,000 (headline call: ETH $250,000 - no deadline stated)
S&P 500 to reach 7,700 in 2026, extending the bull market to a fourth year (with a possible 15-20% correction in H2 first)
“We did raise our target to 8,000” - S&P 500 year-end target 8,000 (“$400 in 2027 [earnings]… we traded 20 times that, that would be 8,000”)
“You're gonna see Bitcoin over 100,000 by the end of the year”
“And Ethereum back to over 5,000” (by end of year)
“77, 7,800 first. And then a 10% to 15% pullback” - S&P sequence: 7,700-7,800 before a 10-15% pullback
“I believe you're gonna see Bitcoin over 100,000 by the end of the year.”
“And Ethereum back to over 5,000.” (immediately following the Bitcoin call)
“8,000 is doable this year… Because 8,000 would be roughly 20 times 2027 earnings of 400. I think that's a low estimate. I think the PE multiple could be 22 or better.”
Where they stand
Views on the record but not scoreable bets: no single number and deadline to grade. Shown in their exact words, never scored.
Bull
“8,000 is doable this year… Because 8,000 would be roughly 20 times 2027 earnings of 400. I think that's a low estimate. I think the PE multiple could be 22 or better”; and: “between now and year end, there should be something that might feel like a bear market too. Not in July, but maybe between August and October”
Bull
Fundstrat raised S&P year-end target to 8,000 ($400 2027 earnings x 20 multiple) BUT expects a severe correction first; markets frontload negative shocks
Bull
Bitcoin over 100,000 by end of year and Ethereum back to over 5,000 (from ~58K / ~1,600 now)
Bear
SpaceX share unlock is the H2 risk: float ~$90B now, over $1 trillion available by year-end; IPO liquidity unlock starts in the fall
Bull
“I believe you're gonna see Bitcoin over 100,000 by the end of the year. And Ethereum back to over 5,000”; also: “I think Bitcoin is like 5% below production cost right now”
Bull
“I think near term, I think we can be 77, 7,800 first. And then a 10% to 15% pullback, but for understandable reasons”
Mixed
Favorable now, but an abrupt bear-market-like change later in 2026
The Sunday Standings
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Before you trust the call, check the record.
Every line on this site is backed by a dated, sourced entry in our records. We write down what public figures predict, then check when reality answers. How we score · Corrections
Pundit Rumble · punditrumble.com · built 2026-07-09 from the records · never hand-edited · not investment advice.
Every line on this site is backed by a dated, sourced entry in our records. We write down what public figures predict, then check when reality answers. How we score · Corrections
Pundit Rumble · punditrumble.com · built 2026-07-09 from the records · never hand-edited · not investment advice.