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S&P 500 from 2026-07-13 to 2026-09-04 · ▲ said up · ▼ said down · dot = the close that day
Date
Market
Call
What was said
Since then
2026-08-14
S&P 500
down
Even as the long-term trajectory of stocks remains higher, a bear market will happen.
when yields get to a level where they're providing more competition for corporate debt, and it appears to be approaching that level, that causes the markets to hesitate. And we think that that's a period that we're approaching.
77.50 is the base case, but under the right circumstances and the right circumstances being, you know, extreme capital markets activity, FOMO like we've seen at the peak of every structural technology driven bull market, that you could move as high as 9,000.
Julian Emanuel of Evercore writes (read on air by Bloomberg) that stocks' long-term trajectory is higher but a bear market will happen because AI does not negate the cycle.
Even as the long-term trajectory of stocks remains higher, a bear market will happen.
Julian Emanuel of Evercore tells Bloomberg that with the AI bull market nearly four years old and financial conditions the loosest this century, he is concerned about complacency.
that financial conditions are as the loosest that they've been this entire century, we're a little bit concerned about that bit of complacency.
Julian Emanuel of Evercore tells Bloomberg that despite caution into September, an all-rise phase for Mag7, software and semis will come before the cycle ends.
But we do think you will get all rise before this cycle is over.
Julian Emanuel of Evercore tells Bloomberg that market-implied odds of a September hike (~30%) will nudge higher between now and the September 16 FOMC, which could unsettle markets.
I think we think that's going to nudge higher between now and September 16.
Julian Emanuel of Evercore tells Bloomberg his main worry for stocks is the 10-year yield pushing through 4.75% toward 5% as the 30-year makes cycle highs.
So our concern, if there was one in particular, would be if the 10-year yields started nudging through 4 and 3/4 towards 5% as the 30-year yield has made new cycle highs.
Julian Emanuel tells CNBC the recent AI financing deals show the AI buildout is alive and well, with the caveat that it depends on capital-markets access.
you see that the AI revolution is very much alive and well, but it's dependent on capital markets.
Julian Emanuel tells CNBC yields are approaching the level where they compete with corporate debt and make stocks hesitate, a period he thinks is at hand.
when yields get to a level where they're providing more competition for corporate debt, and it appears to be approaching that level, that causes the markets to hesitate. And we think that that's a period that we're approaching.
Julian Emanuel tells CNBC oil feeding into yields is a macro headwind for stocks into September seasonality and midterm-election volatility.
you get to a point when you think about the transmission mechanism of oil into yields, where it becomes a macro headwind for stocks approaching September, which tends to be a little bit more difficult, and approaching the midterms
Julian Emanuel tells CNBC equities would rather see the Fed signal intent to hike, because anchored inflation expectations could dampen long-term yields.
I think the market would rather see the intent to hike, because in fact, it has a chance to dampen longer term yields because you keep inflation expectations anchored.
Julian Emanuel tells CNBC his S&P 500 target is 7,750 base case with 9,000 possible under FOMO conditions by end-2027.
77.50 is the base case, but under the right circumstances and the right circumstances being, you know, extreme capital markets activity, FOMO like we've seen at the peak of every structural technology driven bull market, that you could move as high as 9,000.