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Julian Emanuel

Evercore (ISI)
First call on the ledger

No calls filed yet. Quotes in curly quotation marks are verbatim; everything else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.

Since they said it

6 calls on the record with a price to check. Said it would go up: 4; it is higher today in 1 of them. Said it would go down: 2; it is lower today in 2 of them. Prices as of 2026-09-04. These are the tape's moves since each call, not scores. Prices move for many reasons, a call can have a different horizon than today, and a view with no number or deadline is never graded here.

S&P 500 from 2026-07-13 to 2026-09-04 · ▲ said up · ▼ said down · dot = the close that day
7,7997,316
DateMarketCallWhat was saidSince then
2026-08-14S&P 500downEven as the long-term trajectory of stocks remains higher, a bear market will happen. -0.9%
7,786 → 7,719
2026-08-14S&P 500up (leaning)But we do think you will get all rise before this cycle is over. -0.9%
7,786 → 7,719
2026-08-14NasdaqupAnd look, we have been overweight the technology theme the entirety of this bull market. -0.8%
26,729 → 26,507
2026-08-11Nasdaqup (leaning)you see that the AI revolution is very much alive and well, but it's dependent on capital markets. +0.2%
26,445 → 26,507
2026-08-11S&P 500down (leaning)when yields get to a level where they're providing more competition for corporate debt, and it appears to be approaching that level, that causes the markets to hesitate. And we think that that's a period that we're approaching. -0.1%
7,728 → 7,719
2026-08-11S&P 500up77.50 is the base case, but under the right circumstances and the right circumstances being, you know, extreme capital markets activity, FOMO like we've seen at the peak of every structural technology driven bull market, that you could move as high as 9,000. -0.1%
7,728 → 7,719

Where they stand

Views on the record but not scoreable bets: no single number and deadline to grade. Shown in their exact words, never scored.

BearThe Crash Question 2026-08-14
Julian Emanuel of Evercore writes (read on air by Bloomberg) that stocks' long-term trajectory is higher but a bear market will happen because AI does not negate the cycle.
Even as the long-term trajectory of stocks remains higher, a bear market will happen.
S&P 500 since this was said: -0.9% · 7,786 → 7,719 · as of 2026-09-04
BearThe Crash Question leaning · 2026-08-14
Julian Emanuel of Evercore tells Bloomberg that with the AI bull market nearly four years old and financial conditions the loosest this century, he is concerned about complacency.
that financial conditions are as the loosest that they've been this entire century, we're a little bit concerned about that bit of complacency.
S&P 500 since this was said: -0.9% · 7,786 → 7,719 · as of 2026-09-04
BullThe S&P 500 leaning · 2026-08-14
Julian Emanuel of Evercore tells Bloomberg that despite caution into September, an all-rise phase for Mag7, software and semis will come before the cycle ends.
But we do think you will get all rise before this cycle is over.
S&P 500 since this was said: -0.9% · 7,786 → 7,719 · as of 2026-09-04
BearThe S&P 500 leaning · 2026-08-14
Julian Emanuel of Evercore tells Bloomberg index protection is cheap with VIX at 14 and should be bought ahead of the Fed, midterms and Iran.
And so for us, index protection is very inexpensive here.
S&P 500 since this was said: -0.9% · 7,786 → 7,719 · as of 2026-09-04
HoldThe Fed 2026-08-14
Julian Emanuel of Evercore tells Bloomberg his call is that the Fed stays on hold in September.
This will be interesting, because our call is that they actually will stay on hold in September.
NeutralThe Fed leaning · 2026-08-14
Julian Emanuel of Evercore tells Bloomberg that market-implied odds of a September hike (~30%) will nudge higher between now and the September 16 FOMC, which could unsettle markets.
I think we think that's going to nudge higher between now and September 16.
BearThe U.S. Economy hedged · 2026-08-14
Julian Emanuel of Evercore tells Bloomberg his main worry for stocks is the 10-year yield pushing through 4.75% toward 5% as the 30-year makes cycle highs.
So our concern, if there was one in particular, would be if the 10-year yields started nudging through 4 and 3/4 towards 5% as the 30-year yield has made new cycle highs.
BullThe AI Trade 2026-08-14
Julian Emanuel of Evercore tells Bloomberg he has not cut US equity exposure and remains overweight technology, preferring to hedge rather than sell.
And look, we have been overweight the technology theme the entirety of this bull market.
Nasdaq since this was said: -0.8% · 26,729 → 26,507 · as of 2026-09-04
BullThe AI Trade leaning · 2026-08-11
Julian Emanuel tells CNBC the recent AI financing deals show the AI buildout is alive and well, with the caveat that it depends on capital-markets access.
you see that the AI revolution is very much alive and well, but it's dependent on capital markets.
Nasdaq since this was said: +0.2% · 26,445 → 26,507 · as of 2026-09-04
BearThe S&P 500 leaning · 2026-08-11
Julian Emanuel tells CNBC yields are approaching the level where they compete with corporate debt and make stocks hesitate, a period he thinks is at hand.
when yields get to a level where they're providing more competition for corporate debt, and it appears to be approaching that level, that causes the markets to hesitate. And we think that that's a period that we're approaching.
S&P 500 since this was said: -0.1% · 7,728 → 7,719 · as of 2026-09-04
BearThe S&P 500 leaning · 2026-08-11
Julian Emanuel tells CNBC oil feeding into yields is a macro headwind for stocks into September seasonality and midterm-election volatility.
you get to a point when you think about the transmission mechanism of oil into yields, where it becomes a macro headwind for stocks approaching September, which tends to be a little bit more difficult, and approaching the midterms
S&P 500 since this was said: -0.1% · 7,728 → 7,719 · as of 2026-09-04
BearThe S&P 500 leaning · 2026-08-11
Julian Emanuel tells CNBC that every time the 10-year yield rose above 4.80% in the ChatGPT era it stopped the stock rally in its tracks.
almost four years since chat GPT was announced to the world, you've risen above 480. And that essentially has stopped markets in its tracks.
S&P 500 since this was said: -0.1% · 7,728 → 7,719 · as of 2026-09-04
NeutralThe Fed hedged · 2026-08-11
Julian Emanuel tells CNBC the market may get little warning from Warsh and the September 16 Fed decision looks like a coin flip.
it may feel like it's going to be a coin flip into that September 16 meeting.
NeutralThe Fed leaning · 2026-08-11
Julian Emanuel tells CNBC equities would rather see the Fed signal intent to hike, because anchored inflation expectations could dampen long-term yields.
I think the market would rather see the intent to hike, because in fact, it has a chance to dampen longer term yields because you keep inflation expectations anchored.
BullThe S&P 500 2026-08-11
Julian Emanuel tells CNBC his S&P 500 target is 7,750 base case with 9,000 possible under FOMO conditions by end-2027.
77.50 is the base case, but under the right circumstances and the right circumstances being, you know, extreme capital markets activity, FOMO like we've seen at the peak of every structural technology driven bull market, that you could move as high as 9,000.
S&P 500 since this was said: -0.1% · 7,728 → 7,719 · as of 2026-09-04

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