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RK
Randall Kroszner
Chicago Booth; fmr Fed governor
First call on the ledger
No calls filed yet. Quotes in curly quotation marks are verbatim; everything
else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.
Where they stand
Views on the record but not scoreable bets: no single number and deadline to grade. Shown in their exact words, never scored.
Fresh restatement of his near-2%-in-12-18-months call (cross-ref POS-195, Jul 10); explicitly NOT by end of 2026
“Oh, I think we can. It's not gonna happen in the next quarter, it's not gonna happen by the end of the year. But I do think that within, let's say a year to 18 months, we can be pretty close.”
A former Fed insider conceding the public trust breakdown is real and self-inflicted (meaning-verified)
“So I think there is a breakdown of trust and I think that is a real problem. We saw that because inflation went up so high when the Fed was saying transitory, transitory, transitory, as inflation kept spiraling higher and higher.”
MEANING GUARD: 2030-2032 depletion window is his citation of the trustees report, not his forecast; his own claim is 'never fully solved, only patchworks'
“I think it'll never be fully solved. We've had patchworks that come every decade or so when we see that the Social Security Trust Fund is going to run out of resources. And the most recent report says it's coming pretty soon, 2030, 2032.”
NeutralThe Fed
leaning · 2026-07-10
On inflation getting back near 2 percent
“It's not going to happen in the next quarter. It's not going to happen by the end of the year. But I do think that within, let's say, a year to 18 months, we can be pretty close.”
On public trust in the Fed after the transitory era
“So I think there is a breakdown of trust and I think that is a real problem.”
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