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Adam Kobeissi
The Kobeissi Letter
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else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.
Where they stand
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Cites 'SK Hynix, their biggest company, has $20 billion in levered ETFs. For comparison, Nvidia has around $5 billion' (@1:49) on a stock a fifth Nvidia's size; but adds 'I don't think that's bearish for US stocks in any way' (@2:18).
“So I think what you're seeing is excessive amounts of leverage coupled with a lot of speculation, a lot of excitement.”
Notes almost all Mag 7 stocks fell 'close to at least 20% from their highs' yet 'the S&P is 1% away from a record high' because memory names subbed in (@2:58); adds Nvidia 'is now trading cheaper than the S&P 500 on a forward earnings basis' (@3:19).
“Well, we think a rotation is going to happen back into the Mag Seven, into large cap tech. And that's going to be the catalyst that takes the S&P to $8,000.”
S&P 500 since this was said: ▼ -1.5% · 7,572 → 7,458 · as of 2026-07-17
Asked what to sell to fund large-cap tech: 'a lot of these memory names that have rallied a lot, like the Sandix and the Microns of the world, I'm not saying that there's an imminent crash coming' (@3:37; 'Sandix' = whisper garble of SanDisk).
“but I don't think you're going to perform better in those names over the next three to six months than you would in the large cap tech names that lag because of those stocks.”
NeutralThe Fed
leaning · 2026-07-15
Said with the 10-year 'back to 4.6' (@4:18), against a market that (per the 7/15 Bloomberg Close) was fully pricing a December hike.
“I think rate hike expectations are way too aggressive right now. I think we could end the year without any hikes at all.”
'gold is starting to find support around $4,000' (@4:29); the dollar 'has been very strong. I think it's due for a pullback' (@4:32); 'these are some of the most hated assets in the market... I love buying the hated stuff' (@4:48).
“And if anything less than the extreme hawkishness that's expected by the Fed materializes, I think gold and bonds are going to be very strong.”
Gold since this was said: ▼ -0.8% · 4,044 → 4,013 · as of 2026-07-17
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