Mohamed El-Erian

…divisions to focus on growth, all expected to be completed within a year. Joining us now to talk about markets and the macro story is Alianz's Chief Economic Advisor Wharton Professor and Gramercy Funds Management Chairman, Mohammad El-Arian. Mohammad, great to see you. Thanks for having me. Thank you so much for being here. So here we are at the beginning or let 's say the end of the first half, the beginning of the second half of the year, how do you see things? How would you assess markets and the macro story? So it's been a great second quarter. I think if we were here three months ago and we had suggested that NASDAQ would be up 20%, people say there's a war going on, what are you thinking? But that's the reality and it shows you the strength of the tech led innovation led economy that we're living in. Going forward, I'm not worried about fundamentals. I think fundamentals are strong. I'm not worried about valuations that have adjusted its technicals. And in particular, there's a tug of war going on right now between our ability to attract money from the rest of the world and this incredible condition to buy the dip versus a question of where will all these funds come from for all the needs that we have for our tech companies, for our government and everything else. So we're going to see the technicals play out, but fundamentals and val uations are in a really good place. You said that before, I mean, you've got lots of money that was flowing into America from the Middle East. I mean, the president likes to talk about the $18 trillion that he's…From: this video · 2 claims mined from it

…much more on the how than the what. Okay. And what about cutting the balance sheet? That's also something that he's priorit ized. He has. And he, and I'm really happy he's done this, has pointed out we have no theory of the balance sheet. You know, when we talk about interest rates, we have this notion of what our star is. What is the equilibrium interest rate? When it comes to the balance sheet, we took it from two trillion to nine trillion back to six trillion without any idea of what the equilibrium balance sheet is. And he's come in and rightly said we need a theory of the balance sheet. And I think that's really, really important because that balance sheet has been used in such, in my view, excessive manner that we've got to underpin it by something. Yeah. Yeah. Do you expect any rate cuts? Do you expect any rate hikes from Kevin Warsh's Fed this year? So I would be absolutely shocked if we get a rate hike in July. And I would be very surprised if we get any rate hikes this year. I also would be surprised if we get a rate cut. I think we're going to have a Fed that 's going to stay on hold for this year and wait for the inflation to go through the process . We've now only left to one of the three components of inflation. Now, that's basically where you are as well. A hundred percent. Yeah. If you look at inflation, like the core is at like 3%. That's the historical average. We have normal inflation now where we should be. That shouldn't do anything here. A hundred percent agree. All right. We will leave it here. Muhammad, great to get your take as always. Thank you.…From: this video · 2 claims mined from it