← Leaderboard
ME
Mohamed El-Erian
Allianz / Queens' College
First call on the ledger
No calls filed yet. Quotes in curly quotation marks are verbatim; everything
else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.
Where they stand
Views on the record but not scoreable bets: no single number and deadline to grade. Shown in their exact words, never scored.
On the record-high rally after Bessent's deal-today-or-tomorrow line; success has been redefined down to the strait alone.
The market loves what it heard from the Secretary this morning about free navigation. The qualification, and it's an important one, is that all the focus now is simply on the Strait. When the war started, the Strait wasn't the issue. There was a number of other issues that needed to be resolved. Now they've been put aside and all the focus is on the Strait.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +31.5% · 75.77 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
defends the hold against the dissenters
“If you look at the data, there was no reason to hike at this rate, at this time”
the selloff reflects lost hand-holding, not policy error; codependency has gone too far
“the market is nervous that its training wheels are being taken off”
rates must rise on deficit plus tech bond supply; weights = rates garble
“between the government deficit, between the tech bond issuance that is happening this year, weights need to go higher”
US 10-yr yield since this was said: 4.75% → 4.94% (+20 bp) · as of 2026-09-10
near-term funding costs rise to attract capital
“in the short term, the funding cost is going to have to go up”
US 10-yr yield since this was said: 4.75% → 4.94% (+20 bp) · as of 2026-09-10
Asked how Kevin Warsh should think about inflation. 'the one qualification is oil prices. And regular is above four today and diesel is above five... I look at them every single day' (@3:45); tariff inflation 'behind us', most oil inflation 'behind us', AI-related inflation 'I can live with' given coming productivity gains (@3:56-4:07).
“I'm not into the we need three rate hikes. I don't think we're gonna get any rate hikes. I think the worst of the inflation is behind us.”
Asked when 'you wake up one morning and go, okay, there's an overbuilt': 'probably in three to four years' (@4:41). Concedes 'It could' run for quite a while and that tech people say the endpoint is impossible to define; cites fiber precedent.
“So there's likely to be an overbuilt, because every innovation tends to overdo it in the initial phases”
Nasdaq since this was said: ▲ +2.2% · 25,508 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
Explains why there's no endpoint: AI is more than a general-purpose technology - 'the inventor of inventions... recursive self improvement... continuously allows for more things to happen' (@5:36-5:48, citing James Manyika, garbled 'Menica').
“So I think it's it is almost impossible to predict the end point of this, other than I do believe it will be in higher productivity, but also a lot of disruptions that come with that.”
Brent ~88-90 amid US-Iran war escalation, equities up Monday morning: 'The fundamental view in the marketplace is these escalations will be contained. And this was tested this weekend' (@2:32); the contrast of 'really messy news and relatively stable markets... You normally don't get that combination at all' (@2:56-3:04).
“So this is a fascinating time because everything is in equilibrium, but it's very unstable.”
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +2.0% · 7,443 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
Asked if the surge in retail betting on everything is good or bad long term: 'the social implications are not great... those who tend to bet are those who are least able to underwrite the losses' (@1:33-1:49); the volume numbers 'don't surprise me at all' given lowered barriers and lottery-ticket psychology.
“Okay, but in general, I think access to markets are a good thing. And if you provide more access to markets, that's a good thing.”
Asked if the market pricing containment (Brent high 70s, not 80s-90s) is the right call
“I do. I think it will be contained. I think neither side want to go back to a full conflict, but both sides wanna make that point for domestic reasons.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +27.5% · 78.14 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
This week's data docket (CPI, Warsh testimony, retail sales)
“I'm looking for this set of inflation numbers to say the peak of the inflation cycle.”
His sources-and-uses math (cites his FT piece a month ago); points to Amazon's lackluster bond issuance as evidence
“there is no way this bond market can fund all that the tech platforms need, all that the governments need, and all that the other corporate needs without higher yields. It just doesn't add up.”
On what is actually driving equity prices despite the yield problem
“the US will continuously outperform the rest of the world. And I think that is a correct assessment.”
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +1.0% · 7,515 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
Restating the funding-gap conclusion after the Middle East petrodollar point (Gulf money now needed at home for reconstruction and resilience)
“the sources of funding is a little bit less, the uses of funds is a lot more. And the only way you get this to equal without a recession or anything awful is higher yields.”
On why the straight-up move in AI names has stopped; 'I think that's a good thing'
“One is it's more expensive than we thought. And two, not everybody's gonna win. So the venture capitalist mindset is starting to set in”
Nasdaq since this was said: ▲ +0.8% · 25,873 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
Immediately adds the VC reality: 'one or two may win, but the rest are gonna be less so' (whisper garbles 'rest' as 'West')
“So if you ask me, on average, is the market fairly priced? I say, yes.”
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +1.0% · 7,515 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
“I'm not worried about fundamentals. I think fundamentals are strong. I'm not worried about valuations”
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +0.7% · 7,537 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
“I would be absolutely shocked if we get a rate hike in July. And I would be very surprised if we get any rate hikes this year. I also would be surprised if we get a rate cut”
Follow Mohamed El-Erian
One short email when Mohamed puts a new call on the record, and when a verdict lands on one. Plain words, free.