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Matheus Dibo
Goldman Sachs Private Wealth (Global Head of Tactical Asset Allocation)
First call on the ledger
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else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.
Where they stand
Views on the record but not scoreable bets: no single number and deadline to grade. Shown in their exact words, never scored.
Matheus Dibo (Goldman Sachs PWM) tells Lacqua the Fed will stay on hold for the foreseeable future, disagreeing with market pricing of hikes.
Now clearly the market is still pricing in hikes but we actually disagree and believe that the Fed will be on hold for the foreseeable future.
Dibo tells Lacqua US inflation should moderate sequentially in H2 2026 versus H1.
we think that sequentially inflation should moderate in the second half relative to the strong pace that we saw in the first half.
Dibo tells Lacqua the US labor market is far from booming (about 20k jobs/month, 2.3% annualized wages), so wages are not an inflation source.
In fact if you look at the last three months the U.S. economy generated only 20,000 jobs on average per month and wages grew at an annualized pace of only 2.3 percent.
Dibo tells Lacqua the risk to his on-hold base case is tilted toward Fed hikes if the next three CPI prints surprise to the upside.
we fully acknowledge that the risks are tilted towards hikes especially if the next three inflation prints surprise on the upside.
Dibo tells Lacqua the US labor market is in a no-hire, no-fire equilibrium with falling participation.
the U.S. labor market seems to be in an equilibrium where you're seeing there's no hire no fire labor market.
Dibo tells Lacqua Goldman's base case is that oil prices ultimately come down, and base effects shrink oil's contribution to headline inflation regardless.
So our base case is that oil prices will ultimately come down but even if you look at year over year inflation just because of base effects the contribution of oil to headline inflation should start to moderate in coming months.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +11.1% · 83.27 → 92.54 · as of 2026-09-08
Dibo tells Lacqua hyperscaler capex will exceed operating cash flow this year and next, which is why the market worries about AI monetization.
And importantly the capex will exceed the cash flow from operations for these companies both this year and next.
Nasdaq since this was said: ▼ -0.3% · 26,588 → 26,507 · as of 2026-09-04
Dibo tells Lacqua S&P 500 Q2 earnings grew ~31% ex one-off equity gains with 85% of companies beating, i.e. the earnings story is broad-based.
But even if you take that out earnings too grew by 31 percent in Q2 and importantly it's being broad based because 85 percent of companies beat EPS estimates.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▼ -0.4% · 7,748 → 7,719 · as of 2026-09-04
Dibo tells Lacqua 2026 US equity supply (IPOs, follow-ons, lock-up expiries) will be a record ~$1.1tn, though normal as a share of market cap.
all of that should amount to total equity supply of about one point one trillion dollars in 2026 which is a record.
Dibo tells Lacqua Goldman found no statistically significant link between IPO activity and forward US equity returns, so heavy issuance is not a reason to stay out.
we have looked at whether IPO activity correlates with the forward returns of the U.S. equity market historically. And we found no statistically significant evidence of that.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▼ -0.4% · 7,748 → 7,719 · as of 2026-09-04
Dibo tells Lacqua Goldman expects a 5-10% S&P 500 pullback at some point in coming months, which he calls normal volatility and not a reason to sell.
We expect a decline of 5 to 10 percent at some point in coming months.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▼ -0.4% · 7,748 → 7,719 · as of 2026-09-04
Dibo tells Lacqua clients should keep the bulk of their equity allocation in the US given its resilience.
So that just reinforces our view that clients should have the bulk of their equity allocation really in the U.S.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▼ -0.4% · 7,748 → 7,719 · as of 2026-09-04
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