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Adrian Day
Adrian Day Asset Management
First call on the ledger
No calls filed yet. Quotes in curly quotation marks are verbatim; everything
else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.
Where they stand
Views on the record but not scoreable bets: no single number and deadline to grade. Shown in their exact words, never scored.
GDX down 35% from January; valuations in the lowest quintile historically, he cites
“So prices down, valuations down, sentiment weak. I mean, that is just the perfect setup for a strong move.”
Conditional downside: only if gold fails a retest of the recent low; gold ~$4,000 after a ~$5,000+ January peak
“if we fail on that retest, we'll be down to 3,600.”
Oil's fall feeding through to gasoline in six to eight weeks, he reasons
“And the CPI number could be weak for July and August. And so I think a lot of the pressure on the Fed to raise rates will perhaps be removed.”
Calls the current move an unwinding of the AI bubble
“The AI stocks I think are just grossly overvalued based on future earnings, but may or may not come.”
Draws the New Century 2007 analogy: the first blowup came a year before Bear and Lehman
“No, I don't think the risk in the private credit market has gone away by any means.”
If the new Fed chair talks about gold's role in the monetary system, he adds
“I think there's a possibility of a meaningful revaluation in the gold price over the next few years”
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