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Sebastien Page
T. Rowe Price (head of global multi-asset, CIO)
First call on the ledger
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else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.
Where they stand
Views on the record but not scoreable bets: no single number and deadline to grade. Shown in their exact words, never scored.
With the Nasdaq indicated down ~480 points and peak momentum stocks 'coming down about 20% over the last four weeks' @1:47, he defends the ~$3 trillion three-year AI capex estimates as reasonable 'because there is tremendous demand for the end product. Chat GPT is at 1 billion users' @1:21, demand for Claude in enterprises 'almost going vertical' @1:34; the alpha is in 'rotating bottlenecks' - cooling equipment, backend equipment, process controls @2:01.
“Strong conviction on the AI theme overall, especially for the next six to 12 months.”
One-year inflation swaps price '2 percent, or even below 2 percent, for the next 12 months' @3:35 versus 3.5% running CPI. He cites lagged effects from fertilizer, freight and energy costs, and AI as 'almost a source of inflation because of the tremendous energy demand' @3:07. Hedges: 'along metals, stocks, mining stocks, tips, cash' plus hedged-equity strategies since Treasuries are 'not the perfect hedge' in an inflation shock @4:41-4:55.
“we're running at three-and-a-half percent CPI. So, we think the market might be under pricing this risk. We are hedging it.”
Answering whether the Fed will 'have to step in and really raise rates aggressively in the short term.' He notes the short rate is already down 175bp from peak @5:54 and rising long-end rates tighten financial conditions, which 'actually helps the Fed with the job' @6:08. Also: inflation is 'not high enough that we think the Fed will have to go... way aggressive, and that market will crash' @5:01.
“Yeah, I don't think so for the next six months. Our economists are looking basically at no action. So, I think we're OK.”
Portfolio positioning disclosed on air: expects 'more of a steepening, more of the longer end rates continuing to go up a little bit' @6:26, calling it 'a risk that's easy to control from a portfolio perspective' @6:33.
“We are, however, short duration, right? We prefer to have a little bit more cash than longer-term bonds because of overall pressure, positive pressures on rates.”
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