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Since they said it
7 directional calls with a price to read (4 bullish, 3 bearish). 1 week later, with the call in 2 of 4; 1 month later, with the call in 2 of 4. Prices as of 2026-09-11. Three fixed windows, the same for every call, always shown together: one week, one month, three months after the first close that followed the tape. What the market did, not a score: a call can have a different horizon, and a view with no number or deadline is never graded here.
Gold from 2026-05-18 to 2026-09-11 · ▲ bullish · ▼ bearish · dot = the close that day
Date
Market
Call
What was said
1 week
1 month
3 months
2026-09-10
from 4,375
Gold
Bearish (Hedged)
So that would be absolute support for me. And even if it did that, that would mean gold comes down another hundred dollars
short term by virtue of gold's price being above the 50 day simple moving average tells me that on a short term basis, it's turned bullish, but on a long term basis, it still has to prove that it has the ability to find support roughly in this area at $4,400
the strength of that trend, excuse me, is accelerating. It's getting stronger, not weaker, which is why I believe we could head substantially and not substantially, but we could absolutely had higher 9899 on this futures contract
And that's why I believe that there's a decent probability, I would say 60 to 70%, that this particular area right here at $4,000 could in fact be a technical level of support.
4,000 is really a key and critical number. If it does break below it, it could go $100 lower. But below that, there's really no technical level of support.
Gary Wagner says absolute support sits at the 61.8% retracement / 50-day confluence, which would mean gold falling roughly another $100 from ~$4,400 if tested.
So that would be absolute support for me. And even if it did that, that would mean gold comes down another hundred dollars
Gary Wagner says gold above its 50-day moving average is bullish short term but must hold about $4,400 and take out ~$4,760 before the longer-term bearish sentiment is overcome.
short term by virtue of gold's price being above the 50 day simple moving average tells me that on a short term basis, it's turned bullish, but on a long term basis, it still has to prove that it has the ability to find support roughly in this area at $4,400
Gary Wagner says crude's uptrend is accelerating and WTI futures could head higher to $98-99.
the strength of that trend, excuse me, is accelerating. It's getting stronger, not weaker, which is why I believe we could head substantially and not substantially, but we could absolutely had higher 9899 on this futures contract
Gary Wagner says falling crude plus a second Fed hike in December on top of the expected quarter-point hike would turn him bearish on gold toward $4,000.
So if we saw crude beginning to move back down, if we saw the Federal Reserve do the anticipated quarter percent rate hike, but then follow that with another rate hike at their December meeting, that would do it too
Gold has broken and closed below the $4,000 floor he had given a 60-70% chance of holding. Conditional on follow-through selling below the October bottom near 3932. Later refined: 'the fact that it's closing near the low potential support comes in around 3920' @19:13, and he calls the chart 'a textbook example of a market under pressure' @17:23 with lower highs and lower lows from the 5600-area record.
“I'm going to base my revised support at around 3,900 on the low end”
On the new Fed chairman (Warsh, referenced @5:13): 'he has come out solidly saying any inflation level above two percent is not acceptable' @6:19. Wagner repeats 'it's really likely that we will see it before we see a rate cut' @10:13, with traders handicapping a '50 or 60 or 70 percent possibility probability' of a hike; he says rising rates are 'poison' for gold @2:09.
“our new Fed chairman has definitely put that on the table and has supported I believe a high likelihood that there will be a rate hike specifically more than we see a rate fall”
Direct answer to host: 'earlier this year your wave model... pointed to kind of $6,000 gold last month you softened it saying the top might already be around 5600... is 6,000 still a real year-end target or is that called changed for you' @15:02-15:19. He explains via his ship/captain analogy that models must recalibrate when policy fundamentals change - here, the rate-hike talk. An explicit on-tape reversal of a prior price target.
“that call has to change remember I create models and look for certain activities based on past performance”
Recorded Tuesday Jul 14 after a cooler 3.5% CPI print, with gold rebounding to ~$4,062 after touching ~$3,990. He cites a double/tweezer bottom vs the Jun 23-24 low: 'we have really a real strong support right around $4,000 is based on the double bottom' @15:10, but stresses 'There's no confirmation that a bottom is in place' @20:31.
“I think that we have, at least on a tentative basis, formed a bottom or a definitive level of support at around $4,000.”
Closing summary of the technical walk-through: 'I think that this set of bonds [bottoms] would be where we have really strong support and we could see it move higher' @31:48; downside checkpoints 'Four thousand thirty nine sixty and then about thirty nine thirty five' @30:13.
“In other words, if you continue to fall , I don't see gold going below thirty nine twenty.”
Asked for his conclusion: 'it's certainly not time to continue to be bearish and... continue selling' @28:38; resistance map: break $4,076-$4,080, then $4,180-$4,190 ('the major area' @29:01), then ~$4,400; but 'Would I be an excited bullish player? No, there's a potential for the bearish momentum to continue' @31:21.
“So short term, I would look for gold to continue to track higher if, in fact, we're correct.”
Gary Wagner tells Kitco there is a 60-70% probability that $4,000 gold (futures) is a technical floor after the drop from above $5,500, pending follow-through next week.
And that's why I believe that there's a decent probability, I would say 60 to 70%, that this particular area right here at $4,000 could in fact be a technical level of support.
Gary Wagner tells Kitco that if gold clears resistance around $4,350-4,360 it has a clear run to about $4,500 (conditional).
If it can break through $43.50, $60, then I believe that we've got a clear shot to about $4,500 before we encounter any kind of strong technical resistance.
Gary Wagner tells Kitco that if gold loses $4,000 it could fall another $100, below which there is no strong technical support for a while (conditional).
4,000 is really a key and critical number. If it does break below it, it could go $100 lower. But below that, there's really no technical level of support.
Gary Wagner tells Kitco that gold bulls must hold just above $4,000 and the next real resistance is around $4,370 on the active futures contract.
The key number that gold bulls need to see gold hold is just above 4,000. The next level of real resistance should gold continue to move higher is going to be around 4,370 basis most active futures contract.