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Gary Wagner
TheGoldForecast.com (Kitco technical analyst)
First call on the ledger
No calls filed yet. Quotes in curly quotation marks are verbatim; everything
else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.
Where they stand
Views on the record but not scoreable bets: no single number and deadline to grade. Shown in their exact words, never scored.
Gold has broken and closed below the $4,000 floor he had given a 60-70% chance of holding. Conditional on follow-through selling below the October bottom near 3932. Later refined: 'the fact that it's closing near the low potential support comes in around 3920' @19:13, and he calls the chart 'a textbook example of a market under pressure' @17:23 with lower highs and lower lows from the 5600-area record.
“I'm going to base my revised support at around 3,900 on the low end”
Gold since this was said: ▲ +7.4% · 4,013 → 4,310 · as of 2026-08-05
NeutralThe Fed
leaning · 2026-07-17
On the new Fed chairman (Warsh, referenced @5:13): 'he has come out solidly saying any inflation level above two percent is not acceptable' @6:19. Wagner repeats 'it's really likely that we will see it before we see a rate cut' @10:13, with traders handicapping a '50 or 60 or 70 percent possibility probability' of a hike; he says rising rates are 'poison' for gold @2:09.
“our new Fed chairman has definitely put that on the table and has supported I believe a high likelihood that there will be a rate hike specifically more than we see a rate fall”
Direct answer to host: 'earlier this year your wave model... pointed to kind of $6,000 gold last month you softened it saying the top might already be around 5600... is 6,000 still a real year-end target or is that called changed for you' @15:02-15:19. He explains via his ship/captain analogy that models must recalibrate when policy fundamentals change - here, the rate-hike talk. An explicit on-tape reversal of a prior price target.
“that call has to change remember I create models and look for certain activities based on past performance”
Gold since this was said: ▲ +7.4% · 4,013 → 4,310 · as of 2026-08-05
Recorded Tuesday Jul 14 after a cooler 3.5% CPI print, with gold rebounding to ~$4,062 after touching ~$3,990. He cites a double/tweezer bottom vs the Jun 23-24 low: 'we have really a real strong support right around $4,000 is based on the double bottom' @15:10, but stresses 'There's no confirmation that a bottom is in place' @20:31.
“I think that we have, at least on a tentative basis, formed a bottom or a definitive level of support at around $4,000.”
Gold since this was said: ▲ +6.1% · 4,061 → 4,310 · as of 2026-08-05
Closing summary of the technical walk-through: 'I think that this set of bonds [bottoms] would be where we have really strong support and we could see it move higher' @31:48; downside checkpoints 'Four thousand thirty nine sixty and then about thirty nine thirty five' @30:13.
“In other words, if you continue to fall , I don't see gold going below thirty nine twenty.”
Gold since this was said: ▲ +6.1% · 4,061 → 4,310 · as of 2026-08-05
Asked for his conclusion: 'it's certainly not time to continue to be bearish and... continue selling' @28:38; resistance map: break $4,076-$4,080, then $4,180-$4,190 ('the major area' @29:01), then ~$4,400; but 'Would I be an excited bullish player? No, there's a potential for the bearish momentum to continue' @31:21.
“So short term, I would look for gold to continue to track higher if, in fact, we're correct.”
Gold since this was said: ▲ +6.1% · 4,061 → 4,310 · as of 2026-08-05
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