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Gary Wagner
TheGoldForecast.com (Kitco technical analyst)
First call on the ledger
No calls filed yet. Quotes in curly quotation marks are verbatim; everything
else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.
Where they stand
Views on the record but not scoreable bets: no single number and deadline to grade. Shown in their exact words, never scored.
Gold has broken and closed below the $4,000 floor he had given a 60-70% chance of holding. Conditional on follow-through selling below the October bottom near 3932. Later refined: 'the fact that it's closing near the low potential support comes in around 3920' @19:13, and he calls the chart 'a textbook example of a market under pressure' @17:23 with lower highs and lower lows from the 5600-area record.
“I'm going to base my revised support at around 3,900 on the low end”
NeutralThe Fed
leaning · 2026-07-17
On the new Fed chairman (Warsh, referenced @5:13): 'he has come out solidly saying any inflation level above two percent is not acceptable' @6:19. Wagner repeats 'it's really likely that we will see it before we see a rate cut' @10:13, with traders handicapping a '50 or 60 or 70 percent possibility probability' of a hike; he says rising rates are 'poison' for gold @2:09.
“our new Fed chairman has definitely put that on the table and has supported I believe a high likelihood that there will be a rate hike specifically more than we see a rate fall”
Direct answer to host: 'earlier this year your wave model... pointed to kind of $6,000 gold last month you softened it saying the top might already be around 5600... is 6,000 still a real year-end target or is that called changed for you' @15:02-15:19. He explains via his ship/captain analogy that models must recalibrate when policy fundamentals change - here, the rate-hike talk. An explicit on-tape reversal of a prior price target.
“that call has to change remember I create models and look for certain activities based on past performance”
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