← Leaderboard
JC
Jack Caffrey
JP Morgan Asset Management
First call on the ledger
No calls filed yet. Quotes in curly quotation marks are verbatim; everything
else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.
Where they stand
Views on the record but not scoreable bets: no single number and deadline to grade. Shown in their exact words, never scored.
Jack Caffrey tells the anchor that because AI capex is increasingly debt-funded, the US equity market is shifting from an earnings-driven market to a credit-availability market.
And so to some extent, we become away from an earnings market over time towards becoming more of a credit availability market.
Jack Caffrey tells the anchor that with ~28% earnings growth but only ~4-4.5% dividend growth, dividends barely keep pace with inflation and shareholders become reliant on credit markets.
But I do think when you look at a context of 28 percent earnings worth this year and a four percent dividend growth rate, four and a half percent growth in dividends, A, your dividends are barely keeping up with inflation.
Jack Caffrey tells the anchor rising and accelerating rates make things trickier and the S&P 500 may have a hiccup or two over the next few months.
It becomes a little bit trickier. And I think that's where we may have a hiccup or two over the next few months.
Jack Caffrey tells the anchor a corporate credit reckoning is deferred in the short term because treasurers termed out debt at very low 2021-22 rates, though shorter rates are starting to bite.
From the shorter term, I think it becomes a case that the piper is going to be deferred.
Jack Caffrey tells the anchor the US consumer only gets into much better shape once energy prices normalise, which acts like a weekly tax cut at the pump.
I realistically think the consumer will be in much better shape when we see greater normalization in energy prices.
Jack Caffrey tells the anchor diesel prices stay stiff because no refiner will greenlight major capacity expansion, and one or two unexpected refinery outages would put the US under much greater fuel pressure.
but diesel makes the economy go round, and diesel prices remain stiff, and I don't see any refining company really greenlighting massive capacity expansion
Jack Caffrey tells the anchor he owns energy as the historical hedge against high inflation, which is what would hurt the AI trade.
It would be high inflation, and so I think you wind up protecting against our inflation by owning energy, which has historically been the source
Jack Caffrey tells the anchor his portfolio is long financials as beneficiaries of the steeper yield curve of recent months.
We'd long a lot of financials in the portfolio, again, beneficiary hopefully of a steeper yield curve, which does seem to be the case of what we've been living with for the last several months
BearishThe Fed
leaning · 2026-09-10
Jack Caffrey tells the anchor Treasury buying back 2% coupon bonds at 4-4.2% yields widens the deficit while trying to push yields down, which he finds confusing.
you actually wind up widening the deficit in the attempt of trying to drive down interest rates, so I'm a little confused by that one
Follow Jack Caffrey
One short email when Jack puts a new call on the record, and when a verdict lands on one. Plain words, free.